本文關鍵詞： 生態(tài)足跡 濟南 線性回歸　出處：《山東大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：生態(tài)足跡理論是一種評價可持續(xù)發(fā)展的理論,它通過比較人類消耗的生態(tài)資源與自然環(huán)境所提供的生態(tài)資源,對所研究地區(qū)的可持續(xù)性進行評價。由于自然資源的不可比性,因此使用的是將對生態(tài)資源轉化為生產(chǎn)它們的可比生物生產(chǎn)性土地的方法。 本文以生態(tài)足跡理論為基礎,對濟南市的可持續(xù)性進行評價。首先,選擇適合濟南市的生態(tài)足跡計量模型,為體現(xiàn)本地性采用國家公頃法；其次,計算靜態(tài)生態(tài)足跡,即濟南市2012年的生態(tài)足跡與生態(tài)承載力,通過比較分析得出濟南市處于生態(tài)赤字或生態(tài)盈余,并給予可持續(xù)性評價；再次,生態(tài)足跡包括碳足跡賬戶和生物質資源賬戶,對1996年至2012年濟南市的生態(tài)足跡分賬戶進行回歸分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)影響不同賬戶的產(chǎn)業(yè)因素；最后,根據(jù)回歸結果,對濟南市未來五年生態(tài)足跡的變化給予預測,并給出增強濟南市可持續(xù)發(fā)展的政策建議。 結論,濟南市人均生態(tài)足跡(即生態(tài)需求)遠遠高于人均濟南市生態(tài)承載力(即生態(tài)供給),生態(tài)赤字很大。能源性生態(tài)足跡(碳足跡)占整個生態(tài)足跡較高的比重,與工業(yè)、建筑業(yè)呈較強的正相關,與服務業(yè)呈較強的負相關,與農業(yè)、人口規(guī)模不相關。生物質生態(tài)足跡與三產(chǎn)業(yè)和人口均無顯著的相關性�？偟纳鷳B(tài)足跡與工業(yè)產(chǎn)值呈顯著正相關,與服務業(yè)呈顯著負相關,與其他產(chǎn)業(yè)和人口不相關,線性方程為LnY=0.338lnX1-0.18lnX2+15.74,(Y為總生態(tài)足跡,X1為工業(yè)增加值,X2為服務業(yè)產(chǎn)值),本文通過預測未來五年的工業(yè)增加值和服務業(yè)產(chǎn)值來預測未來總的生態(tài)足跡。結果顯示未來生態(tài)足跡增長有限。但因為目前生態(tài)赤字較大,應采取必要的措施。措施主要有：采取增加農業(yè)耕地的生態(tài)供給,限制高耗能工業(yè),發(fā)展高端制造業(yè),以減少生態(tài)需求,同時為服務業(yè)創(chuàng)造更有利的發(fā)展環(huán)境,以促進服務業(yè)的繁榮,緩解因高耗能高污染工業(yè)的關閉而引起的發(fā)展動力不足的問題。
[Abstract]:Ecological footprint theory is a theory of evaluating sustainable development. It evaluates the sustainability of the studied area by comparing the ecological resources consumed by human beings with the ecological resources provided by the natural environment. Thus, a method is used to convert ecological resources into comparable bioproductive land for their production. Based on the ecological footprint theory, this paper evaluates the sustainability of Jinan. Firstly, select the ecological footprint measurement model suitable for Jinan, to reflect the local use of the national hectare method; secondly, calculate the static ecological footprint. That is, the ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of Jinan in 2012, through comparative analysis, it is concluded that Jinan is in ecological deficit or ecological surplus, and gives sustainability evaluation. Thirdly, ecological footprint includes carbon footprint account and biomass resource account. Based on the regression analysis of ecological footprint sub-accounts in Jinan from 1996 to 2012, the industrial factors affecting different accounts are found. Finally, according to the regression results, the changes of ecological footprint in Jinan in the next five years are predicted. And give the policy suggestion of strengthening the sustainable development of Jinan city. Conclusion: the per capita ecological footprint (i.e. ecological demand) of Jinan is much higher than that of the ecological carrying capacity (i.e. ecological supply) of Jinan, and the ecological deficit is very large. The energy ecological footprint (carbon footprint) accounts for a high proportion of the whole ecological footprint, and it is associated with industry. There was a strong positive correlation between the construction industry and the service industry, but no correlation with agriculture and population size. There was no significant correlation between the biomass ecological footprint and the three industries and the population, but the total ecological footprint was significantly positively correlated with the industrial output value. There was significant negative correlation with service industry, but no correlation with other industries and population. The linear equation is LnY=0.338lnX1-0.18lnX2 15.74% for the total ecological footprint and X1 for industrial added value and X2 for service industry output value. This paper predicts the future ecological footprint by predicting the industrial added value and service industry output value in the next five years. The results show that the future ecological footprint is expected in the future. Footprint growth is limited. But because of the current ecological deficit, Necessary measures should be taken. The main measures include: increasing the ecological supply of agricultural arable land, limiting energy-consuming industries, developing high-end manufacturing industries in order to reduce ecological demand, and creating a more favourable environment for the development of the service industry. In order to promote the prosperity of the service industry and alleviate the problem of insufficient development power caused by the closure of energy-intensive and polluting industries.
【學位授予單位】：山東大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：X22;F127

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