發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-29 17:33

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 農(nóng)村金融 農(nóng)民收入 協(xié)整分析 脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)　出處：《吉林財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：“三農(nóng)”問題一直以來都是我國政府亟需解決的問題，它關(guān)系著我國的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、社會穩(wěn)定、國民素質(zhì)，而解決這一問題的關(guān)鍵就是促進(jìn)農(nóng)村及農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展，增加農(nóng)民的收入水平，提升農(nóng)民的生活水平。經(jīng)過近幾年的調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)表明，雖然農(nóng)民收入近幾年有所提高，可是我們不能被表面現(xiàn)象所蒙蔽。農(nóng)民收入水平的提高，不但能改善農(nóng)民的生活水平，還能促進(jìn)我國農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展，加快小康社會建設(shè)的步伐，促進(jìn)和諧社會的構(gòu)建。對于吉林省而言，伴隨著近幾年經(jīng)濟(jì)迅猛發(fā)展，金融產(chǎn)品種類日益增多，農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展的地位日益凸現(xiàn)出來，漸漸地為大家所重視，農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展如何進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)對“三農(nóng)”的支持是我國新農(nóng)村建設(shè)中的重要問題。所以本文立足于吉林省農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展的角度，對如何增加農(nóng)民收入水平做進(jìn)一步的分析，力求找出影響方式、途徑和解決辦法。 所謂農(nóng)村金融即農(nóng)村貨幣資金的融通，是指在農(nóng)村地區(qū)以及與農(nóng)業(yè)有密切關(guān)系的各個(gè)領(lǐng)域中，以信用手段為農(nóng)民、農(nóng)業(yè)和農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)服務(wù)而籌集、分配和管理農(nóng)村貨幣資金的活動。本文主要選取了“農(nóng)村儲蓄比率”和“農(nóng)村信貸比率”作為農(nóng)村金融的數(shù)據(jù)體現(xiàn)形式。農(nóng)村金融的發(fā)展，對農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展及農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展起到一定的促進(jìn)作用，對農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)起到推進(jìn)作用，只有農(nóng)民的生產(chǎn)成規(guī)模了，不再單純的依靠種植收入，農(nóng)民的生活水平才會有質(zhì)的提高，使農(nóng)村生產(chǎn)模式形成良好的可持續(xù)性的循環(huán)。 本文實(shí)證部分如下：首先，我們對吉林省1979年至2011年的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行時(shí)間序列分析，根據(jù)平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)得出農(nóng)民收入水平LNRI、農(nóng)村儲蓄比率LNRS、農(nóng)村信貸比率LNRL和農(nóng)村固定資產(chǎn)投資LNCA它們的原序列都是非平穩(wěn)序列，它們的一階差分序列都是平穩(wěn)序列，即它們都是一階單整I(1)的；對LNRS、LNRL、LNCA與LNRI序列之間的協(xié)整關(guān)系進(jìn)行JJ檢驗(yàn)：農(nóng)村儲蓄比率、農(nóng)村信貸比率、農(nóng)村固定資產(chǎn)投資與農(nóng)民收入水平之間存在長期的穩(wěn)定的均衡關(guān)系；在最優(yōu)滯后期1時(shí)，通過格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)發(fā)現(xiàn)：農(nóng)村儲蓄比率是農(nóng)民收入水平的格蘭杰原因，農(nóng)村固定資產(chǎn)投資不是農(nóng)民收入水平的格蘭杰原因；通過脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解可以了解：隨著吉林省農(nóng)民儲蓄能力的不斷增強(qiáng)在長期趨勢上對農(nóng)民的增收起到積極的促進(jìn)作用，因?yàn)檗r(nóng)民儲蓄能力的提升，意味著可支配收入就會相應(yīng)增加，此時(shí)農(nóng)民可以投資于完善自身教育，使自己參加培訓(xùn)，提升技術(shù)水平技能，可以投資農(nóng)民的生產(chǎn)性固定資產(chǎn)等方面，所以這是農(nóng)民收入水平增加的影響原因，而吉林省農(nóng)村信貸和農(nóng)民收入屬于正相關(guān)，雖然短期內(nèi)作用不明顯，但是長期趨勢上還是對農(nóng)民收入起到促進(jìn)作用，農(nóng)民要想擴(kuò)大生產(chǎn)規(guī)模，就必須有資金做后盾，所以農(nóng)村信貸的發(fā)展為農(nóng)民生產(chǎn)提供保障。其次，是對吉林省8個(gè)地級市的2003年至2012年的面板數(shù)據(jù)分析，對農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展如何影響吉林省地級市的農(nóng)民收入水平進(jìn)行地區(qū)差異的論述：長春、吉林、四平都是吉林省經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展比較好的城市，但是這些地區(qū)共同存在的問題就是對小農(nóng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的扶持力度不夠，過多的關(guān)注于城市本身的發(fā)展，，使得這些地區(qū)的農(nóng)村發(fā)展較城市發(fā)展相對落后，所以城鄉(xiāng)收入差距也相對較大。從吉林省各地區(qū)整體來看，我省經(jīng)濟(jì)較為發(fā)達(dá)的地區(qū)相比貧困地區(qū)擁有更完善的金融體系，農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展對農(nóng)民收入增長的影響也越大。
[Abstract]:The "three rural issues" has always been our government need to solve the problem, which is related to China's economic development, social stability, national quality, and the key to solve this problem is to promote rural and agricultural development, increase farmers' income, improve the living standards of farmers. Through the survey data in recent years that, although in recent years has increased the income of the farmers, but we can not be fooled by the surface phenomenon. Improvement of farmers' income level, not only can improve the living standards of farmers, but also promote the development of rural economy in China, accelerate the pace of construction of a well-off society, promote the building of a harmonious society. As for Jilin Province, accompanied by rapid the economic development in recent years, financial products are increasing, the development of rural finance is becoming increasingly prominent, gradually to the attention, the rural financial development to further strengthen the "Three Rural "Support" is an important issue in the construction of new countryside in China. Therefore, based on the perspective of rural financial development in Jilin Province, this paper makes further analysis on how to increase farmers' income level, and tries to find ways, ways and solutions to influence them.
The so-called rural financial and rural monetary financing, refers to various fields in rural areas and agriculture are closely related, by means of credit for farmers, agriculture and rural economy and raise the service, the allocation of funds and management of rural monetary activities. This paper selects the "rural savings rate" and "rural credit ratio" as the rural financial data form. The development of rural finance, to promote the development of agriculture and rural economic development, to promote the role of agricultural production, farmers only production scale, no longer simply rely on planting income, the living level of farmers will have to improve the quality of the rural production mode the formation of sustainable good circulation.
In the empirical part of this paper is as follows: firstly, we analyze the time series of Jilin province from 1979 to 2011 data, according to the stationary test that the income level of farmers LNRI, rural savings rate LNRS, the original sequence of their rural credit and rural fixed assets investment ratio of LNRL LNCA are non-stationary sequence, their first-order difference sequence is a stationary series, they are integrated of order 1 I (1); LNRS, LNRL, JJ test the relationship between LNCA and LNRI sequences of the association: rural savings rate, rural credit ratio, there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between fixed assets investment and the income level of farmers in rural areas; optimal lag in late 1, the Grainger causality test shows that the rural savings rate is the Grainger reason of farmers' income level, Grainger reason of rural fixed assets investment is not the level of income of the farmers; through the pulse response Should the function and variance decomposition can understand: with the savings of farmers in Jilin province to strengthen the capacity of the long-term positive effect on Farmers' income, because farmers savings capacity, mean disposable income will increase, the farmers can improve its investment in education, to participate in the training, promotion the technical level of production skills, other aspects of fixed assets investment can farmers, so this is the reason affecting the income level of farmers increased, and the credit in rural areas of Jilin province and the income of the farmers is positively related, although the short-term effect is not obvious, but the long-term trend is still on the income of the farmers to play a role in promoting the farmers to expand the scale of production and you must have financial backing, so the development of rural credit guarantee for farmers. Secondly, the 8 cities of Jilin province from 2003 to 2012 in the face In the data analysis of rural financial development income level of farmers how to influence the city of Jilin province were discussed: the regional differences in the Changchun, Jilin, Siping economic development in Jilin province are relatively good city, but the existence of these problems is the common area of the small peasant economy support is not enough, too much attention to the development of the city itself that makes the rural development in these areas than the city development is relatively backward, so the income gap between urban and rural areas is also relatively large. From the whole of each area in Jilin Province, has a more perfect financial system of our province economy more developed regions in the poverty-stricken areas, rural financial development has more effects on the growth of farmers' income.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.35;F323.89;F224

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