本文關(guān)鍵詞： 棚戶區(qū) 改造建設(shè) 房地產(chǎn) 風險研究　出處：《西南交通大學》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：作為人類生活的棲息地,城市是現(xiàn)代文明的結(jié)晶,也是人類乃以生存和寄托的夢想之所。城市的快速發(fā)展,城鎮(zhèn)化進程的加快,導致出現(xiàn)越來越多的“城中村”“棚戶區(qū)”,同時也催生了房地產(chǎn)市場經(jīng)濟泡沫。房地產(chǎn)市場的快速擴張,使得城市建設(shè)發(fā)展進一步失衡,并且導致土地資源稀缺。為了解決房地產(chǎn)市場過快發(fā)展而導致的一系列問題,諸如“城中村”“棚戶區(qū)”的數(shù)量增加,土地資源流失嚴重,大量開墾耕地作為建設(shè)用地等,政府已經(jīng)陸續(xù)出臺了許多政策法規(guī)抑制問題的進一步發(fā)展。與此同時,之前的棚戶區(qū)改造建設(shè)模式的弊端越來越明顯,導致棚戶區(qū)改造建設(shè)陷入瓶頸。伴隨著政府發(fā)展方向性的改變,新的一輪建設(shè)規(guī)劃以及合作方式受到了眾多企業(yè)的關(guān)注。本文基于這個背景,針對W公司擬投資B區(qū)X路段棚戶區(qū)改造建設(shè)項目的案例分析,研究了棚戶區(qū)改造建設(shè)項目以政府為主導開發(fā)商參與的合作方案的特點、成本、收益及其相應(yīng)的風險控制。本文的主要研究內(nèi)容如下：首先,本文的緒論部分主要闡述了B區(qū)X路段棚戶區(qū)改造建設(shè)項目出現(xiàn)的背景,以及本文的研究意義、研究內(nèi)容。通過W公司擬投資B區(qū)X路段棚戶區(qū)改造建設(shè)項目這一案例,分別介紹了項目建設(shè)背景、企業(yè)投資方背景及B區(qū)X路段棚戶區(qū)改造建設(shè)項目的合作方式。其次,本文介紹了全國棚戶區(qū)改造建設(shè)項目的現(xiàn)狀及其難點,同時也對現(xiàn)在棚戶區(qū)改造建設(shè)項目模式進行了分析,并提出了本文所探索的新思路——以政府為主導,開發(fā)商參與的棚戶區(qū)改造建設(shè)模式,分析了該模式的優(yōu)缺點。再次,本文概括介紹B區(qū)X路段棚戶區(qū)改造建設(shè)項目的基本情況,如當?shù)氐男枨?并且利用SWOT分析法對該項目做出詳盡的分析得出一個合理的綜合評價,提出在新模式的合作方式下更為合理的建設(shè)方案、運營情況。緊跟著,本文第四部分通過ISM分析方法針對W公司投資B區(qū)X路段棚戶區(qū)改造建設(shè)項目的一系列風險作出分析研究,并且根據(jù)B區(qū)X路段棚戶區(qū)改造建設(shè)項目特有的合作方案提出相關(guān)風險控制措施。最后,本文通過B區(qū)X路段棚戶區(qū)改造建設(shè)項目的相關(guān)財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)分析,預測了該項目現(xiàn)金流量情況,并使用敏感性分析做了測算,得出結(jié)論：項目投資額的變動對兩種凈利潤指標的影響程度更大。同時通過經(jīng)濟指標的預測結(jié)果可以得出該項目的內(nèi)部收益率遠遠高出本項目的基準收益率,因此得出結(jié)論：W公司擬投資B區(qū)X路段棚戶區(qū)改造建設(shè)項目的經(jīng)濟效益是非常具有可觀的。本文的研究方法是以w公司擬投資B區(qū)x路段棚戶區(qū)改造建設(shè)項目的案例分析為切入點,研究分析棚戶區(qū)改造建設(shè)項目的新合作模式。本文旨在解決現(xiàn)今棚戶區(qū)改造建設(shè)陷入瓶頸的主要問題,同時在一定程度上緩解土地資源不足而導致亂圈地的情況。本文通過相關(guān)案例分析得出結(jié)論：新型合作模式——以政府為主導,開發(fā)商參與的棚戶區(qū)改造建設(shè)模式是現(xiàn)今我國城市一體化發(fā)展過程中較佳途徑。
[Abstract]:As a human life habitat, the city is the crystallization of modern civilization, is the human survival and sustenance in the dream. The rapid development of the city, speeding up the urbanization process, leading to an increasing number of "Villages" and "shantytowns", but also economic bubbles in real estate market. The rapid expansion of the real estate market the city construction and development, further imbalance and lead to the scarcity of land resources. A series of problems in order to solve the excessive development of the real estate market caused, such as "Villages" and "shantytowns" increase in the number of land resources, the serious loss of a large number of reclaimed land is used as construction land, the government has gradually introduced a further development many policies and regulations to suppress the problem. At the same time, before the renovation of shanty towns construction mode is more and more obvious disadvantages, resulting in shantytowns construction into the bottle neck with. Change the government development direction of the new round of planning and cooperation by many enterprises. This paper based on this background, according to the case analysis of W company intends to project shantytowns section X investment B, the cost of shantytowns construction projects by the government for the characteristics of leading developers cooperation scheme in the return, and the corresponding risk control. The main contents of this paper are as follows: firstly, the introduction part mainly elaborates the X road B District shantytowns construction project background and significance, the research content of this paper. Through the case of X W company intends to invest B District shantytowns road the construction project, introduces the project background, section X and B enterprise investment background reconstruction project shantytowns cooperation. Secondly, this paper introduces the national shantytowns construction The status quo and difficulties of the project, but also on the transformation of shanty towns construction project now mode are analyzed, and a new idea is put forward in this paper to explore, guided by the government, the construction of shantytowns mode developers involved in the analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of this mode. Thirdly, this paper introduces the basic situation of X road B District shantytowns in the project, such as local needs, and make a detailed analysis of the project that a reasonable comprehensive evaluation using the SWOT analysis method, put forward a new model in the way of cooperation is more construction plan, reasonable operation. Followed by the fourth part of this paper make a research through a series of risk analysis ISM methods according to the W investment company B X road shantytowns construction projects, and according to the B X road reconstruction project shantytowns special cooperation plan put forward relevant risk control measures. Finally, through the relevant financial data of B area X road shantytowns construction project analysis, forecast the project cash flow, and the use of sensitivity analysis to do a calculation, draw the conclusion: the influence of the project investment changes on two net profit index is larger. At the same time through the forecast of economic indicators results the project's internal rate of return is much higher than the benchmark interest rate of project, thus draw the conclusion: the W X section of B investment company intends to district shantytowns construction project economic benefit is very considerable. This research is based on case analysis of W company intends to project shantytowns section x investment B area as a starting point, analysis of shantytowns construction projects of the new cooperation mode. This paper aims to solve the shantytowns construction problems into a bottleneck, and to some extent alleviate The lack of land resources leads to confusion. Based on relevant cases, the paper concludes that the new cooperative mode -- the government oriented development of shantytowns is a good way for the development of urban integration in China.

【學位授予單位】：西南交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.27

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本文編號：1466414