本文選題：收入來源 + 收入不確定性　； 參考：《山西財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：目前,我國經(jīng)濟增長由高速增長進入中高速增長階段,近幾年出口和投資對經(jīng)濟增長的拉動作用均有所下降,消費作為經(jīng)濟增長的基礎(chǔ)作用日益凸顯。1992年,我國社會主義市場經(jīng)濟體制確立,從此我國進入轉(zhuǎn)型經(jīng)濟時期,不確定性越來越凸顯出來,深刻的影響著我國居民的消費。山西省作為我國中部地區(qū)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展緩慢的省份,在轉(zhuǎn)型經(jīng)濟的大背景下,使得山西居民面臨的不確定性越來越大,從而嚴重的影響著山西居民的消費,制約著山西經(jīng)濟的進一步發(fā)展。為了解決這一問題,本文在西方消費理論的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合山西農(nóng)村居民的實際情況,從不同來源收入出發(fā),進一步分析不同來源收入及其不確定性,是否會在不同程度上對山西農(nóng)村居民消費產(chǎn)生影響,并提出一些政策建議,這對山西省制定消費政策有一定的理論和實踐意義。本文采用1992--2013年的山西省農(nóng)村居民收入和消費數(shù)據(jù),依據(jù)統(tǒng)計年鑒中對收入來源分為四類,并借鑒已有學(xué)者的相關(guān)研究,采用調(diào)整離差來測量不同來源收入的不確定性。將理論分析和實證分析相結(jié)合,從定性和定量分析的角度,以持久性收入假說和預(yù)防性儲蓄理論為基礎(chǔ),分析不同來源收入及其不確定性如何影響山西農(nóng)村居民消費。最后根據(jù)分析得出結(jié)論并提出相關(guān)政策建議。本文對山西省農(nóng)村居民不同來源收入的不確定預(yù)期對消費的影響進行分析,研究發(fā)現(xiàn):工資性收入和轉(zhuǎn)移性收入顯著影響著山西農(nóng)村居民的消費,其中,工資性收入對山西農(nóng)村居民消費的拉動作用較大,轉(zhuǎn)移性收入的拉動作用較小。并且,工資性收入不確定性和轉(zhuǎn)移性性收入不確定性都顯著負向的影響著山西農(nóng)村居民消費。針對這樣的問題,從政府角度來說,應(yīng)該對山西農(nóng)村居民進城務(wù)工做到一定的保障,促進農(nóng)村居民工資性收入的穩(wěn)定性;增加惠農(nóng)政策的連續(xù)持久,促使山西農(nóng)村居民轉(zhuǎn)移性收入持續(xù)穩(wěn)定增加。此外,對于農(nóng)村居民而言,家庭經(jīng)營純收入所占收入的比重仍然較大,故還應(yīng)積極推進現(xiàn)代農(nóng)業(yè)在山西農(nóng)村的發(fā)展,做好農(nóng)產(chǎn)品市場風(fēng)險的防范工作,促進農(nóng)村居民農(nóng)作物穩(wěn)定增收。同時,進一步完善農(nóng)村金融投資機制,進而對山西農(nóng)村居民財產(chǎn)性收入的增加做出一定的改進。
[Abstract]:At present, China's economic growth has moved from high speed growth to medium and high speed growth stage. In recent years, the pulling effect of export and investment on economic growth has declined, and consumption, as the basis of economic growth, has become increasingly prominent. Since the establishment of socialist market economy system, uncertainty has become more and more prominent in the period of China's transition economy, which has a profound impact on the consumption of Chinese residents. Shanxi Province, as a province with slow economic development in the central region of China, under the background of the transition economy, makes the residents of Shanxi face more and more uncertainty, thus seriously affecting the consumption of Shanxi residents. Restrict the further development of Shanxi economy. In order to solve this problem, based on the western consumption theory and the actual situation of rural residents in Shanxi, this paper further analyzes the income from different sources and its uncertainty from different sources. Whether the consumption of rural residents in Shanxi will be affected in varying degrees, and put forward some policy recommendations, which has certain theoretical and practical significance for Shanxi Province to formulate consumption policy. Based on the data of income and consumption of rural residents in Shanxi Province from 1992 to 2013, this paper divides the income sources into four categories according to the statistical yearbook, and uses the relevant research of scholars to measure the uncertainty of income from different sources by adjusting the deviation. Combining theoretical analysis with empirical analysis, this paper, from the perspective of qualitative and quantitative analysis, analyzes how income from different sources and its uncertainty affect rural residents' consumption in Shanxi Province, based on the hypothesis of persistent income and the precautionary saving theory. Finally, according to the analysis to draw conclusions and put forward relevant policy recommendations. This paper analyzes the influence of the uncertain expectation of rural residents' income from different sources on consumption in Shanxi Province, and finds that wage income and transfer income significantly affect the consumption of rural residents in Shanxi Province. Wage income plays a greater role in pulling rural residents' consumption in Shanxi Province, but less in transferring income. Moreover, the uncertainty of wage income and transfer income has a significant negative impact on rural residents' consumption in Shanxi. In view of such problems, from the government's point of view, we should provide certain protection for rural residents in Shanxi to work in cities, promote the stability of rural residents' wage income, and increase the continuous and lasting benefits of agricultural policies. Shanxi rural residents to promote the transfer of income sustained and stable increase. In addition, for rural residents, the net income of household management is still a large proportion of income, so we should actively promote the development of modern agriculture in rural areas of Shanxi, and do a good job in preventing the market risks of agricultural products. We will promote a steady increase in the income of the crops of rural residents. At the same time, further improve the rural financial investment mechanism, and further improve the property income of rural residents in Shanxi.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山西財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F323.8

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