本文選題：經(jīng)濟(jì)增長 + 城市化　； 參考：《東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：城市作為一個(gè)國家或地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治的中心,是先進(jìn)生產(chǎn)力和文化集中的地方,與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長有著最為密切的聯(lián)系,2015年,全國經(jīng)濟(jì)總量的80%來源于城市。改革開放以來,我國城市化水平經(jīng)歷了一個(gè)快速增長的過程,2015年,戶籍人口城市化率已經(jīng)達(dá)到39.9%,常住人口城市化率達(dá)到56.1%。伴隨城市化的快速發(fā)展,我國經(jīng)濟(jì)也經(jīng)歷了一個(gè)高速發(fā)展的階段,國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值從1978年的3678.7億元增加到2015年的685505.8億元。而隨著中國步入新常態(tài)階段,我國經(jīng)濟(jì)保持了多年的高速增長已經(jīng)開始轉(zhuǎn)為中速增長,2014年我國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的增速僅為7.4%,2015年進(jìn)一步降低為6.9%,主要是因?yàn)槲覈恢币詠硪蕾嚦隹诤屯顿Y拉動(dòng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長方式已經(jīng)不再適應(yīng)當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的需要,尋找經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的新動(dòng)力成為當(dāng)下中國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的主題,而新型城市化建設(shè)作為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的重要引擎而被給予厚望。城市化的過程即是原來從事農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的農(nóng)村人口不斷向城市轉(zhuǎn)移的過程,因此在城市化的過程中,勞動(dòng)力也在各個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)之間發(fā)生了規(guī)律性的轉(zhuǎn)移,勞動(dòng)力由第一產(chǎn)業(yè)不斷向第二、三產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移。到2012年,我國第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的產(chǎn)值比重已經(jīng)超過第二產(chǎn)業(yè)。另外,城市化進(jìn)程的推進(jìn)導(dǎo)致城市人口增加,就需要政府投入更多的財(cái)政支出來滿足城市人口對(duì)于公共產(chǎn)品的需求。本文在前人研究的基礎(chǔ)上,首先構(gòu)建了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與城市化之間的倒U理論以及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、政府財(cái)政支出與城市化相適應(yīng)的理論框架,然后將全國264個(gè)地級(jí)市按照人口規(guī)模分為四類,使用2003-2014年的數(shù)據(jù)構(gòu)建了全國以及四類不同規(guī)模城市(特大、大、中、小)的城市化水平、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間關(guān)系的5個(gè)面板計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型,并使用面板廣義矩(Panel Data Generalized Method of Moments,PD-GMM)的方法對(duì)5個(gè)面板模型分別進(jìn)行估計(jì)。通過本文的研究可以分析目前在我國不同規(guī)模城市中經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響因素,并且為中央政府以及地方政府制定合理的城市化戰(zhàn)略、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)政策以及財(cái)政支出方針提供有價(jià)值的政策參考。另外,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平較低的城市在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過程中可以借鑒經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平較高城市的發(fā)展經(jīng)驗(yàn)。因此本文的研究具有重要的理論意義和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文以城市化與城市產(chǎn)出之間的倒U型曲線的理論以及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)相關(guān)理論為基礎(chǔ)構(gòu)建面板計(jì)量模型,通過對(duì)模型的估計(jì)得出了與城市最優(yōu)產(chǎn)出所對(duì)應(yīng)的城市化率以及在相應(yīng)的城市化水平下產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整對(duì)城市產(chǎn)出的影響。本文的結(jié)論是:城市化水平與城市產(chǎn)出之間存在著顯著的倒U型曲線關(guān)系,并且測(cè)算出目前我國城市達(dá)到最大城市產(chǎn)出時(shí)所對(duì)應(yīng)的城市化率(適度城市化率)為68.37%,而現(xiàn)在我國的戶籍人口城市化率僅為39.9%,因此我國的城市化水平還有很大的提升空間。并且四類不同規(guī)模城市的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與城市化水平之間都存在倒U型的曲線關(guān)系,但是適度城市化水平并不相同。產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整在不同規(guī)模城市中對(duì)其產(chǎn)出的影響存在差異,但是在四類不同規(guī)模城市中,第二產(chǎn)業(yè)仍然是城市經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的主要?jiǎng)恿?發(fā)展高技術(shù)、高附加值的現(xiàn)代化工業(yè)是目前我國的重要任務(wù)。在全國以及四類不同規(guī)模的城市面板模型中,政府財(cái)政支出對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長都有顯著的影響。本文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)為在理論上論述了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與城市化水平之間存在倒U型曲線趨勢(shì),并且構(gòu)建全國以及四類不同規(guī)模城市的5個(gè)面板計(jì)量模型,運(yùn)用PD-GMM方法對(duì)各個(gè)模型進(jìn)行估計(jì),所得結(jié)果驗(yàn)證了倒U型趨勢(shì)的存在。另一方面本文運(yùn)用全國地級(jí)市的面板數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行建模,并且在城市分類方面進(jìn)行了調(diào)整,按照人口規(guī)模進(jìn)行分類,所得估計(jì)結(jié)果驗(yàn)證了不同規(guī)模城市所對(duì)應(yīng)最優(yōu)人均產(chǎn)出時(shí)的城市化水平存在差異,不同規(guī)模城市的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和地方公共財(cái)政支出對(duì)城市經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響也有較大差異。
[Abstract]:As the economic and political center of a country or region, the city is the place where the advanced productive forces and culture are concentrated, and it has the most close connection with the economic growth. In 2015, 80% of the national economic total came from the city. Since the reform and opening up, the level of Urbanization in China has experienced a rapid growth process, and in 2015, the household population city is a city. The rate of urbanization has reached 39.9%. The urbanization rate of the resident population has reached 56.1%. with the rapid development of urbanization. China's economy has also experienced a rapid development stage. The GDP has increased from 367 billion 870 million yuan in 1978 to 68 trillion and 550 billion 580 million yuan in 2015. With China entering the new normal stage, China's economy has maintained a high speed growth for many years. It has begun to turn to medium speed growth. The growth rate of China's GDP in 2014 is only 7.4%, and in 2015 it is further reduced to 6.9%. The main reason is that the economic growth mode which has been dependent on export and investment has no longer adapted to the needs of the current economic development, and the new driving force for economic growth has become the current economic development of China. The theme of the exhibition, and the new urbanization construction as an important engine of economic growth, is given great hope. The process of urbanization is the process that the rural population engaged in agricultural production is transferred to the city continuously. Therefore, during the process of urbanization, the labor force has been transferred regularly between various industries, and the labor force is from the first industry. Shift to the second, third industry continuously. By 2012, the proportion of the output value of the third industry in China has exceeded the second industry. In addition, the advancement of the urbanization process leads to the increase of urban population. It is necessary for the government to invest more financial support to meet the demand of the urban population for public goods. The inverted U theory between economic growth and urbanization, the industrial structure, the theoretical framework of the government's fiscal expenditure and urbanization, then divided the 264 cities into four categories according to the population size, and using the data of 2003-2014 years to construct the urbanization level of the whole country and the four types of cities of different scale (large, large, medium, small). 5 panel econometric models of the relationship between structure and economic growth, and the use of panel generalized moment (Panel Data Generalized Method of Moments, PD-GMM) to estimate the 5 panel models respectively. Through this study, we can analyze the factors that affect the economic growth of different cities in China and the central government. The government and local government formulate reasonable urbanization strategy, industrial structure policy and fiscal expenditure policy to provide valuable policy reference. In addition, the cities with low level of economic development can learn from the experience of the higher level of economic development in the process of economic development. This study has important theoretical significance and is of great significance. This paper builds a panel measurement model based on the theory of inverted U curve between urbanization and urban output and the related theory of industrial structure. Through the estimation of the model, the urbanization rate corresponding to the urban optimal output and the impact of industrial structure adjustment on urban output under the corresponding urbanization level are obtained. The conclusion of this paper is that there is a significant inverted U curve relationship between the urbanization level and the urban output, and calculates the corresponding urbanization rate (moderate urbanization rate) of the largest urban output in our country at present (the rate of moderate urbanization) is 68.37%, but the urbanization rate of the household registered population in China is only 39.9%, so the urbanization level of our country is still there. There is a large space for promotion. And there is an inverted U curve relationship between the economic growth and the urbanization level of the four different scale cities, but the level of moderate urbanization is different. The impact of industrial structure adjustment on the output of different cities in different scale cities is different, but the second industry is still in the four different scale cities. The main driving force of urban economic growth, the development of high technology and high value-added modern industry is an important task in our country. In the national and four types of urban panel models, the government financial expenditure has a significant impact on economic growth. The innovation point of this paper is to discuss the economic growth and urbanization level in theory. There is an inverted U curve trend, and 5 panel measurement models of the national and four different scale cities are constructed, and the PD-GMM method is used to estimate each model. The results verify the existence of the inverted U trend. On the other hand, this paper uses the panel data of the national prefecture level city to model and adjust the city classification. According to the size of the population, the results of the estimated results show that there are differences in the urbanization level of the corresponding optimal people in different scale cities, and the industrial structure of different scale cities and the effect of local public finance expenditure on urban economic growth are also different.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F121.3;F299.2

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