本文選題：農(nóng)作物生物災(zāi)害 + 時(shí)間變化��； 參考：《西南大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：農(nóng)作物的種植對于人類生存、發(fā)展的意義和在國家經(jīng)濟(jì)中的地位毋庸置疑,但由于農(nóng)作物的生長主要是在自然環(huán)境下進(jìn)行,因此農(nóng)作物的生長受自然災(zāi)害的影響最大,全球氣候變化使得農(nóng)作物的生長對于環(huán)境更加敏感,面臨的形勢也更加嚴(yán)峻。農(nóng)作物生物災(zāi)害是自然災(zāi)害的重要類型之一,近幾十年農(nóng)作物生物災(zāi)害造成的的損失呈逐年增大趨勢,但目前我國對農(nóng)作物生物災(zāi)害的發(fā)生規(guī)律與防災(zāi)減災(zāi)方面的研究仍然相對落后,因此加強(qiáng)我國農(nóng)作物生物災(zāi)害的研究勢在必行。重慶市是我國農(nóng)業(yè)人口最多、農(nóng)業(yè)在國民經(jīng)濟(jì)中比重最大的直轄市,全市2014年農(nóng)業(yè)戶籍人口2003.08萬人,可用耕地約243.84萬公頃,人均耕地僅為0.07公頃。因此保持農(nóng)作物的穩(wěn)定生產(chǎn)對于重慶市經(jīng)濟(jì)的平穩(wěn)快速發(fā)展起到了至關(guān)重要的作用。然而在近20多年來,受全球氣候變暖、耕種制度的變化以及人為耕種活動等因素影響,重慶市農(nóng)作物生物災(zāi)害的呈現(xiàn)出了明顯的加劇趨勢。因此,對重慶市農(nóng)作物生物災(zāi)害發(fā)生面積和發(fā)生率的時(shí)間變化、農(nóng)作物生物災(zāi)害造成的農(nóng)作物產(chǎn)量損失的時(shí)間變化、農(nóng)作物生物災(zāi)害綜合分析以及農(nóng)作物生物災(zāi)害防治減災(zāi)效果分析等方面的研究顯得尤為必要。本文利用1950-2012年重慶市農(nóng)作物生物災(zāi)害災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù),利用線性趨勢法、Hurst指數(shù)法、Morelet小波分析法和灰色GM(1,1)預(yù)測模型法,以年際和年代際為單位分別探索重慶市農(nóng)作物生物災(zāi)害發(fā)生面積和發(fā)生率的時(shí)間變化特征、重慶市生物災(zāi)害造成的農(nóng)作物損失量和受損程度的時(shí)間變化特征以及重慶市農(nóng)作物生物災(zāi)害防治后的防治減災(zāi)效果的時(shí)間變化特征;運(yùn)用層次分析方法確定重慶市農(nóng)作物生物災(zāi)害的權(quán)重,并在此基礎(chǔ)上對重慶市農(nóng)作物生物災(zāi)害進(jìn)行綜合分析。本文研究得到如下結(jié)論:(1)重慶市農(nóng)作物生物災(zāi)害發(fā)生面積和發(fā)生率時(shí)間變化特征如下:重慶市農(nóng)作物病蟲害、鼠害發(fā)生面積和發(fā)生率均呈明顯上升趨勢,農(nóng)作物草害發(fā)生面積和發(fā)生率均呈下降趨勢;農(nóng)作物病蟲害、草害、鼠害發(fā)生率分別存在著準(zhǔn)6年和23年的震蕩周期、準(zhǔn)5年、10年和23年的震蕩周期、準(zhǔn)23年的震蕩周期;農(nóng)作物病蟲害、鼠害發(fā)生率時(shí)間序列的Hurst指數(shù)分別為0.9047和0.8063,表明重慶市未來農(nóng)作物病蟲害和鼠害發(fā)生率整體呈不斷上升趨勢;重慶市農(nóng)作物生物災(zāi)害的灰色GM(1,1)預(yù)測表明,2022年農(nóng)作物病蟲害、草害和鼠害發(fā)生面積分別為5084.87千公頃次、1599.79千公頃次和423.82千公頃次,發(fā)生率分別為155.73%、48.46%和13.72%。(2)重慶市生物災(zāi)害造成的農(nóng)作物損失量和受損程度時(shí)間變化特征如下:重慶市病蟲害、鼠害造成的糧食作物損失量和受損程度呈明顯的上升趨勢,而草害造成的糧食作物損失量和受損程度呈波動下降趨勢;病蟲害、草害、鼠害造成的糧食作物受損程度分別存在著準(zhǔn)9年和23年的震蕩周期、準(zhǔn)4年的震蕩周期、準(zhǔn)9年和準(zhǔn)23年的震蕩周期;病蟲害、草害、鼠害造成的糧食作物受損程度時(shí)間序列的Hurst指數(shù)分別為0.9023、0.6119、0.7814,表明重慶市未來生物災(zāi)害造成的糧食作物受損程度整體變化趨勢與過去一致。重慶市病蟲害、草害造成的油料作物損失量和受損程度均呈明顯的上升趨勢;病蟲害、草害造成的油料作物受損程度分別存在著準(zhǔn)10年和25年的震蕩周期、準(zhǔn)6年的震蕩周期;病蟲害、草害造成的油料作物受損程度時(shí)間序列的Hurst指數(shù)分別為0.8959、0.573,表明重慶市未來病蟲害、草害造成的油料作物受損程度整體變化趨勢與過去一致。重慶市病蟲害造成的其他作物損失量和受損程度呈上升趨勢,而草害造成的其他作物損失量和受損程度呈下降趨勢;病蟲害、草害造成的其他作物受損程度分別存在著準(zhǔn)6年和27年的震蕩周期、準(zhǔn)5年和準(zhǔn)27年的震蕩周期;病蟲害、草害造成的其他作物受損程度時(shí)間序列的Hurst指數(shù)分別為0.7597、0.6105,表明重慶市未來病蟲害、草害造成的油料作物受損程度整體變化趨勢與過去一致。預(yù)測表明,2022年病蟲害、草害和鼠害造成的糧食作物損失量分別為259488.15噸、38601.53噸和42008.89噸,病蟲害、草害和鼠害造成的糧食作物受損程度分別為139.87kg/ha、21.18kg/ha和22.95kg/ha;病蟲害、草害造成的油料作物損失量分別為15915.34噸和6367.69噸,受損程度分別為55.56kg/ha、22.12kg/ha;病蟲害、草害造成的其他作物損失量分別為175082.38噸和36561.14噸,受損程度分別為130.14kg/ha、33.22kg/ha。(3)重慶市農(nóng)作物病蟲害、草害防治面積和防治率均呈上升趨勢,農(nóng)作物鼠害防治面積呈上升趨勢,而其防治率呈緩慢下降趨勢。重慶市糧食作物病蟲害、草害防治后的挽回?fù)p失量和減災(zāi)率呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢,年均挽回?fù)p失量和減災(zāi)率分別為為891229.71噸和80.51%、115887.49噸和71.3%,糧食作物鼠害防治后的挽回?fù)p失呈上升趨勢,年均損失量為150945.89噸,防治后的減災(zāi)率呈下降趨勢,年均減災(zāi)率為51.69%;油料作物病蟲害、草害防治后的挽回?fù)p失量和減災(zāi)率呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢,其年均挽回?fù)p失量和減災(zāi)率分別為14076.99噸和69.19%、7627.73噸和66.13%;重慶市其他作物病蟲害、草害防治后的挽回?fù)p失量和減災(zāi)率均呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢,其年均損失量和減災(zāi)率分別為272210.32噸和75.95%、37563.96噸和60.63%。(4)重慶市農(nóng)作物病蟲害、草害和鼠害對重慶市農(nóng)作物生物災(zāi)害受災(zāi)強(qiáng)度的影響權(quán)重值分別為:0.637、0.1047和0.2583;1989-2012年間重慶市農(nóng)作物生物災(zāi)害出現(xiàn)輕災(zāi)、中災(zāi)、重災(zāi)和特大災(zāi)的年份分別有10年、7年、4年和3年;預(yù)測表明,2017-2032年期間,重慶市農(nóng)作物生物災(zāi)害將會出現(xiàn)3個(gè)重、特大災(zāi)年份,分別在2017-2019期間、2025-2027期間和2031-2032期間。
[Abstract]:The planting of crops has no doubt about the significance of human survival, the significance of development and the status in the national economy. However, because the growth of crops is mainly in the natural environment, the growth of crops is most affected by natural disasters, and the global climate change makes the growth of crops more sensitive to the environment and the situation is even more. Crop biological disasters are one of the most important types of natural disasters. The loss of crop biological disasters in recent decades is increasing year by year. However, the research of crop biological disasters and disaster prevention and mitigation in China is still relatively backward. The city of Chongqing is the largest agricultural population in China and the largest proportion of agriculture in the national economy. In 2014, the population of the city was 20 million 30 thousand and 800 people with agricultural household registration, 2 million 438 thousand and 400 hectares of cultivated land, and 0.07 hectares of cultivated land per capita. Therefore, the stable production of crops has played an important role in the smooth and rapid development of Chongqing's economy. However, in the past 20 years, affected by the global warming, the change of farming system and the human farming activities, the crop biological disasters in Chongqing showed an obvious intensification trend. Therefore, the time changes in the area and incidence of crop biological disasters in Chongqing, and the agriculture caused by the crop biological disasters were brought forward. The time change of crop yield loss, the comprehensive analysis of crop biological disasters and the effect analysis of crop biological disaster prevention and reduction are particularly necessary. In this paper, the linear trend method, Hurst index method, Morelet wavelet analysis and grey GM are used in the 1950-2012 year statistical data of crop biological calamity in Chongqing. 1,1) the prediction model method was used to explore the time variation characteristics of the occurrence area and incidence of crop biological disasters in Chongqing, and the time change characteristics of crop loss and damage degree caused by biological disasters in Chongqing and the time of preventing and reducing the effect of disaster prevention and control after the prevention and control of crop raw materials in Chongqing. The weight of the crop biological disasters in Chongqing was determined by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and on this basis, the crop biological disasters in Chongqing were analyzed synthetically. The following conclusions were obtained: (1) the variation characteristics of the occurrence area and occurrence rate of crop biological disasters in Chongqing were as follows: crop disease and insect pests in Chongqing City, rats The area and incidence of damage occur obviously, the area and incidence of crop grass damage are decreasing, and the incidence of crop diseases, insect pests, grass and rodent damage has a quasi 6 year and 23 year oscillation period respectively, the oscillation period of 5 years, 10 and 23 years, the period of quasi 23 years, crop diseases and insect pests, and the rate of rodent damage The Hurst index of the sequence was 0.9047 and 0.8063 respectively, indicating that the overall crop pests and insect pests and the incidence of rodent damage in Chongqing were increasing in the future, and the grey GM (1,1) prediction of crop biological disasters in Chongqing showed that the area of crop diseases and insect pests, grass and rodent damage in 2022 were 5 million 84 thousand and 870 hectares, 1 million 599 thousand and 790 hectares and 423.82 respectively. The incidence of crop loss and damage caused by biological disasters in Chongqing city is 155.73%, 48.46% and 13.72%. (2). The time changes of crop loss and damage degree in Chongqing city are as follows: disease and insect damage in Chongqing, the loss of grain crops and the degree of damage caused by rodent damage, and the amount of crop loss and damage caused by grass damage The fluctuation trend of the fluctuation is: the degree of damage to grain crops caused by diseases and insect pests, grass and rodent damage has a period of 9 and 23 years, a quasi 4 year oscillation period, a quasi 9 year and a quasi 23 year concussion cycle, and the damage degree of grain crops caused by diseases and insect pests, grass and rodent damage is 0.9023,0.6119,0.7814, respectively. The overall change trend of the damage degree of the grain crops caused by the future biological disasters in the city of Chongqing is the same as that in the past. The loss of oil crops and the damage degree of the oil crops caused by the disease and insect pests, the damage degree of the oil crops caused by the disease and insect pests and the grass damage are stored in the oscillation period of 10 and 25 years respectively, and the earthquake of 6 years The Hurst index of the time series of the damage degree of the oil crops caused by the disease and insect pests and the grass damage is 0.8959,0.573 respectively. It indicates that the future disease and insect damage in Chongqing city and the damage degree of the oil crops caused by the grass damage are the same as that in the past. The loss and damage degree of other crops caused by diseases and insect pests in Chongqing are on the rise, and the grass damage is the same. The loss of other crops and the degree of damage of other crops showed a downward trend, and the damage degree of other crops caused by diseases and insect pests was 6 and 27 years, respectively, for 5 years and 27 years. The time series of other crop damage caused by diseases and pests and grass damage were 0.7597,0.6105, respectively. The overall change trend of the damage degree of the oil crops caused by grass damage in the future is the same as that in the past. The forecast shows that the loss of grain crops caused by diseases and insect pests, grass and rodent damage in 2022 were 259488.15 tons, 38601.53 tons and 42008.89 tons respectively, and the damage degree of grain crops caused by disease and insect pests, grass and rodent damage were 139.87kg/ha, 21 respectively. .18kg/ha and 22.95kg/ha; the loss of oil crops caused by insect pests and grass pests were 15915.34 tons and 6367.69 tons respectively. The damage degree was 55.56kg/ha, 22.12kg/ha, diseases and insect pests, and other crop losses caused by grass damage were 175082.38 tons and 36561.14 tons respectively, the degree of damage was 130.14kg/ha, 33.22kg/ha. (3) Chongqing crop disease and insect pests, respectively. The area of prevention and control of grass damage and control rate are on the rise, and the prevention and control area of crop rodent pest is on the rise, and its control rate has a slow decline trend. The recovery loss and disaster reduction rate of grain crops in Chongqing city are rising, and the average annual recovery loss and disaster reduction rate are 891229.71 tons and 80.51%, 1158 respectively. 87.49 tons and 71.3%, after the prevention and control of crop rodent damage, the recovery loss showed an upward trend, the annual average loss was 150945.89 tons, the rate of disaster reduction after prevention and control decreased, the annual average rate of disaster reduction was 51.69%, oil crops and insect pests, the recovery loss and disaster reduction rate after the prevention and control of grass damage showed an upward trend, and the annual average salvage loss and disaster reduction rate were respectively 14076.99 tons and 69.19%, 7627.73 tons and 66.13%, other crops and pests in Chongqing, the recovery loss and disaster reduction rate after the prevention and control of grass are all rising, the annual average loss and disaster reduction rate are 272210.32 tons and 75.95%, 37563.96 tons and 60.63%. (4) Chongqing agricultural plant diseases and insect pests, grass and rodent pests to crop biological disasters in Chongqing The weight values of the damage intensity were respectively: 0.637,0.1047 and 0.2583; the year of 1989-2012 Chongqing crop biological disasters occurred light, medium, heavy and mega disasters, respectively, 10 years, 7 years, 4 years and 3 years. The prediction showed that in 2017-2032 years, the agricultural biological disasters in Chongqing will appear 3 heavy, the catastrophic year, 201, respectively, 201. 7-2019 period, 2025-2027 period and 2031-2032 period.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：S4

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