本文選題：專用道公交優(yōu)先 + 駐站時間預(yù)測�。� 參考：《北方工業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟的日益發(fā)展,城市公共交通服務(wù)建設(shè)成為城市道路交通發(fā)展的重中之重。公交信號優(yōu)先干線協(xié)調(diào)因其實施方便、效果突出等特點能很好的提高城市公共交通服務(wù)水平。在公交專用道連續(xù)性得到提升的前提下,進一步研究專用道公交干線優(yōu)先控制方法將具有更強的實際應(yīng)用價值。本文從專用道公交車輛駐站時間入手,結(jié)合專用道公交干線協(xié)調(diào)控制分區(qū)判據(jù)的研究,完善專用道公交社會車輛干線協(xié)調(diào)策略,具體主要分為以下三個部分:第一、專用道公交駐站時間預(yù)測。基于檢測器數(shù)據(jù)經(jīng)過數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)處理得到特定班次前后車到站時間間隔以及后車駐站時間的數(shù)據(jù)矩陣,采用多項式回歸、指數(shù)函數(shù)回歸、指數(shù)函數(shù)回歸等措施對其回歸擬合,采用皮爾遜系數(shù)對其回歸精度篩選以確定預(yù)測模型,通過平均預(yù)測精度來衡量駐站時間預(yù)測精度,最后通過蒙特卡洛算法和均值聚類算法計算動態(tài)優(yōu)化誤差閾值,實現(xiàn)預(yù)測結(jié)果的動態(tài)優(yōu)化。第二、專用道干線協(xié)調(diào)分區(qū)判據(jù)。首先,基于第一部分的駐站時間預(yù)測,結(jié)合現(xiàn)有的專用道公交車輛的進站平均速度和離站平均速度,以路段車輛檢測器的檢測時刻為準推算公交車到達下游交叉口的時間;其次,通過結(jié)合下游交叉口的現(xiàn)有配時策略,統(tǒng)計半小時內(nèi)公交車的一次性通過率,通過對一次性通過率矩陣進行偽F統(tǒng)計量分析得到最佳分類數(shù),將一維歐氏距離采用均值聚類算法分成最佳類別;最后,通過周期判斷原則分析上下游交叉口間的分區(qū)關(guān)系,最終得到專用道公交的干線協(xié)調(diào)分區(qū)。第三、多時段干線協(xié)調(diào)下專用道公交優(yōu)先。首先,基于譜聚類算法實現(xiàn)公交車輛的浮動加權(quán)處理得到體現(xiàn)公交優(yōu)先的加權(quán)流量,并據(jù)此流量通過采用時間序列劃分算法研究單點的多時段劃分需求;實現(xiàn)多時段劃分和周期計算中體現(xiàn)公交優(yōu)先的目標;然后,依據(jù)干線協(xié)調(diào)優(yōu)化算法,對干線交叉口信號控制進行優(yōu)化,以達到最大協(xié)調(diào)帶寬;最后,經(jīng)過仿真驗證該策略的有效性和可靠性。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy, the construction of urban public transport service has become the most important part of urban road traffic development.The coordination of bus signal priority trunk lines can improve the service level of urban public transportation because of its convenient implementation and outstanding effect.On the premise of improving the continuity of bus lanes, it will be of more practical value to further study the priority control method of bus trunk lines.In this paper, starting with the stop time of public transport vehicles in special lanes, combined with the study of the criterion of coordinated control zoning of bus trunk lines of exclusive lanes, the coordination strategy of social trunk lines of public transport in special lanes is improved. The main contents are as follows: first,The bus stop time forecast.Based on the data preprocessing of the detector data, the data matrix of the time interval between the arrival and arrival of the train before and after a specific shift and the time of the rear train stop are obtained. The polynomial regression, the exponential function regression, the exponential function regression and so on are used to fit the data matrix.The regression accuracy of Pearson coefficient is screened to determine the prediction model, the prediction accuracy is measured by the average prediction precision, and the dynamic optimization error threshold is calculated by Monte Carlo algorithm and mean clustering algorithm.Dynamic optimization of prediction results is realized.Second, the special track trunk line coordinates the partition criterion.First of all, based on the first part of the station time prediction, combined with the existing bus stop average speed and exit average speed, based on the detection time of the vehicle detector in the section of the road to calculate the time of the bus to the downstream intersection;Secondly, by combining the existing timing strategy of the downstream intersection, the one-off pass rate of the bus within half an hour is counted, and the best classification number is obtained by the pseudo-F statistic analysis of the one-off pass rate matrix.The one-dimensional Euclidean distance is divided into the best category by means of the mean value clustering algorithm. Finally, the partition relationship between the upstream and downstream intersections is analyzed according to the principle of periodic judgment, and the coordinated trunk line partition of the dedicated public transportation is finally obtained.Third, under the coordination of multi-time trunk lines, public transport is preferred.Firstly, based on the spectral clustering algorithm, the floating weight processing of public transport vehicles is realized to get the weighted flow which reflects the priority of public transport. According to this, the demand of multi-time division of a single point is studied by using the time series partition algorithm.Realization of multi-time division and cycle calculation to reflect the goal of bus priority; then, according to the trunk line coordination optimization algorithm to optimize the trunk intersection signal control, in order to achieve the maximum coordinated bandwidth; finally,The effectiveness and reliability of the strategy are verified by simulation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北方工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：U491.54

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