本文關鍵詞： 農(nóng)業(yè)旱災 風險防范 凝聚力 指標體系　出處：《河北師范大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：旱災是我國損失和影響最為嚴重的自然災害之一。隨著全球氣候變暖,極端天氣頻發(fā),區(qū)域社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展,需水量劇增等壓力的加大,干旱災害及其風險問題越來越突出,旱災有不斷加重的趨勢。減輕區(qū)域農(nóng)業(yè)旱災風險,需要集中與旱災風險防范相關的各種行動措施,形成凝聚力。有效地減低脆弱性,提高適應和應對能力,是當前和未來綜合減災的發(fā)展方向。本文將凝聚力概念引入?yún)^(qū)域農(nóng)業(yè)旱災綜合風險防范研究。通過典型區(qū)域特大旱災案例在網(wǎng)絡發(fā)布的應對信息,梳理了旱災成因、災情、影響、應急措施、救助、災后恢復、災前/以及下一輪災害發(fā)生前所做的備災工作。弄清了各種風險防范參與主體在旱災防災減災過程中所起的作用,發(fā)現(xiàn)了凝聚力形成的動力來源,根據(jù)分析做出了體現(xiàn)區(qū)域農(nóng)業(yè)旱災協(xié)同減災的案例表。通過分析來自政府部門的統(tǒng)計資料,工作報告或工作進展,獲取農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)營的資源環(huán)境基礎數(shù)據(jù),篩選研究區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)旱災綜合風險防范的影響因素。通過實際調(diào)研走訪,了解了農(nóng)戶的旱災意識、減災意愿、減災策略和行動措施對凝聚力形成的重要性。根據(jù)災害系統(tǒng)理論,采用綜合分析與主導因素相結合的思路,按照凝聚力形成的力量來源,利用指標篩選以及GIS空間分析等技術方法,開展了對區(qū)域農(nóng)業(yè)旱災綜合風險防范凝聚力指標體系和凝聚力評價方法的構建。建立了縣級和村級農(nóng)業(yè)旱災綜合風險防范凝聚力評價的指標體系。評價指標包括軟硬兩類,其中,軟指標涵蓋組織領導、管理調(diào)控、科學技術、保險、信息傳播、交流與溝通等方面;硬指標主要考核農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)營的孕災環(huán)境、水土資源匹配程度,農(nóng)業(yè)旱災適應與應對的各種能力等�？h域水平上凝聚力評價指標分兩個層次,第一層次,考察應對和適應區(qū)域旱災相關部門的組織領導力、部門協(xié)同合作力、政策支撐度、孕災環(huán)境穩(wěn)定度、資源和工程設施保障力、財力和糧食供給的滿足度、農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)效率等。第二層次的指標分別對第一層次提出的各個維度進行考量。區(qū)域農(nóng)業(yè)旱災綜合風險防范凝聚力指標體系考慮了系統(tǒng)內(nèi)外兩種資源和力量。凝聚力的形成和影響因素在不同區(qū)域、不同時段存在差異,有動態(tài)變化的特征。結合區(qū)域旱災案例及邢臺縣實際進行實證分析。分析結果表明,區(qū)域農(nóng)業(yè)旱災綜合風險防范凝聚力的形成和提升不僅取決于農(nóng)戶及個人的響應方式調(diào)整,而且取決于政府部門領導力和部門、社會團體、企事業(yè)單位之間的高效協(xié)作。長期的旱災風險防范,需要將農(nóng)業(yè)水資源需求與供給控制到平衡狀態(tài)。為了謀求減災與可持續(xù)發(fā)展,旱災減災需要由應急模式轉為完整災害周期的風險防范。
[Abstract]:Drought is one of the most serious natural disasters in China. With the global warming, frequent extreme weather, regional social and economic development, increased water demand and other pressures. Drought disasters and their risks are becoming more and more prominent, drought has a trend of increasing. To mitigate the regional agricultural drought risk, we need to focus on drought risk prevention related to a variety of action measures. Build cohesion... effectively reduce vulnerability and improve adaptation and coping capacity. This paper introduces the concept of cohesion into the study of comprehensive risk prevention of regional agricultural drought. Combing the causes of drought, disaster situation, impact, emergency measures, relief, disaster recovery. The role of various risk prevention participants in the process of drought prevention and mitigation, and the power source of cohesion formation. According to the analysis, the paper makes a case table of regional agricultural drought disaster reduction. Through analyzing the statistical data, work report or progress of work from the government departments, the paper obtains the basic data of resources and environment of agricultural management. Screening the influence factors of comprehensive risk prevention of agricultural drought in the study area. Through the actual investigation and visit, we understand the awareness of drought and the willingness to reduce disaster of farmers. The importance of disaster reduction strategy and action measures to the formation of cohesion. According to the theory of disaster system, combining the comprehensive analysis with the leading factors, according to the strength source of cohesion formation. The methods of index screening and GIS spatial analysis were used. The index system of regional agricultural drought comprehensive risk prevention cohesion index system and cohesive force evaluation method are constructed. The index system of county level and village level agricultural drought comprehensive risk prevention cohesion evaluation is established. The evaluation indexes include:. Hard and soft. Among them, soft index covers organizational leadership, management control, science and technology, insurance, information dissemination, communication and so on; Hard indicators mainly assess the disaster environment of agricultural management, soil and water resources matching degree, agricultural drought adaptation and coping ability, etc. At the county level cohesion evaluation indicators can be divided into two levels, the first level. To investigate the organizational leadership, cooperation, policy support, environmental stability, resource and engineering support, financial resources and food supply satisfaction of drought response and adaptation departments in the region. The index of the second level considers each dimension of the first level separately. The index system of regional agricultural drought comprehensive risk prevention and cohesion takes into account two kinds of resources and strength inside and outside the system. The formation and influence of force are in different regions. According to the case of regional drought and the actual situation of Xingtai county, the analysis results show that there are differences in different periods of time and the characteristics of dynamic change. The formation and promotion of regional agricultural drought comprehensive risk prevention cohesion depends not only on the adjustment of farmers' and individuals' response mode, but also on the leadership of government departments and departments, social groups. The efficient cooperation between enterprises and institutions and the long-term drought risk prevention need to control the demand and supply of agricultural water resources to a balanced state in order to seek disaster reduction and sustainable development. Drought mitigation needs risk prevention from emergency mode to complete disaster cycle.
【學位授予單位】：河北師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：S423

【相似文獻】

相關期刊論文 前5條

1 卜白;;全球環(huán)境變化與綜合風險防范國際研討會在我校召開[J];北京師范大學學報(自然科學版);2007年04期

2 麥強盛;;項目綜合風險的模糊評估模型研究[J];武漢職業(yè)技術學院學報;2010年01期

3 莫宏偉;李少青;陶建軍;劉晗;肖志坤;;湘江湖南段洪水災害綜合風險區(qū)劃[J];長江流域資源與環(huán)境;2011年11期

4 李繼清,張玉山,王麗萍,紀昌明;洪災綜合風險的結構特征分析[J];長江流域資源與環(huán)境;2005年06期

5 睢利利;;多目標綜合風險評價技術研究[J];赤峰學院學報(自然科學版);2011年06期

相關會議論文 前1條

1 殷杰;尹占娥;許世遠;王軍;鐘海東;;多災種自然災害綜合風險評估研究進展[A];“中國視角的風險分析和危機反應”——中國災害防御協(xié)會風險分析專業(yè)委員會第四屆年會論文集[C];2010年

相關重要報紙文章 前4條

1 周莉;民企綜合風險防范淺議[N];中國貿(mào)易報;2008年

2 本報記者 張偉;科技創(chuàng)新為城市安全運行保駕護航[N];中國高新技術產(chǎn)業(yè)導報;2008年

3 周圖卿;巧用CRM規(guī)避證券業(yè)風險[N];中國計算機報;2003年

4 特約記者 徐曉軍;長治市被確定為“十二五”國家科技支撐計劃重點項目示范城市[N];山西科技報;2010年

相關碩士學位論文 前2條

1 胡清華;區(qū)域農(nóng)業(yè)旱災綜合風險防范凝聚力指標體系與評價方法初探[D];河北師范大學;2017年

2 于心怡;基于綜合風險評價的光伏發(fā)電項目投資決策模型研究[D];華北電力大學;2014年

，

本文編號：1471342