【摘要】：隨著中國資本項目開放步伐加快,有關國際資本流動與金融系統(tǒng)間的風險行為反饋,以及貨幣政策是否應當對金融波動做出反應等議題已成為學術界研究的熱點。本文通過構建跨境資本流動與金融摩擦的DSGE模型,模擬分析本幣匯率預期變動與國內金融系統(tǒng)風險行為的反饋機理,并據(jù)此檢驗金融穩(wěn)定目標下不同貨幣政策規(guī)則的有效性。結果表明,本幣升值預期將導致金融系統(tǒng)的風險選擇趨于激進,同時伴隨著實體經(jīng)濟借貸利差擴大,資產價格上漲,金融系統(tǒng)杠桿率增高等現(xiàn)象。利差平滑、杠桿調節(jié)在一定條件下可作為貨幣政策關注的對象,而資產價格穩(wěn)定不應納入貨幣政策調控范疇。
[Abstract]:With the rapid opening of capital account in China, the issues of risk behavior feedback between international capital flow and financial system and whether monetary policy should respond to financial volatility have become a hot topic in academic circles. By constructing the DSGE model of cross-border capital flow and financial friction, this paper simulates and analyzes the feedback mechanism between the expected change of local currency exchange rate and the risk behavior of domestic financial system, and tests the effectiveness of different monetary policy rules under the goal of financial stability. The results show that the expectation of local currency appreciation will lead to a radical choice of risk in the financial system, accompanied by the widening of real economy lending spreads, the rise in asset prices and the increase in the leverage ratio of the financial system. Interest margin smoothing, leverage adjustment can be regarded as the object of monetary policy under certain conditions, but asset price stability should not be included in the scope of monetary policy regulation.
【作者單位】： 武漢大學經(jīng)濟與管理學院;
【基金】：教育部重大攻關項目“經(jīng)濟發(fā)展新常態(tài)下我國貨幣政策體系建設研究”(項目編號:15JZD013) 國家自然科學基金國際合作研究項目“法、金融與經(jīng)濟增長之再考察——中國的變革挑戰(zhàn)與英國等國的經(jīng)驗”(項目編號:71661137003)資助
【分類號】：F822.0;F832

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