本文選題：互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融 + 貨幣政策資產(chǎn)價格傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制��； 參考：《南京師范大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：以互聯(lián)網(wǎng)為代表的現(xiàn)代信息技術(shù)的發(fā)展給金融業(yè)帶來了深刻的影響。隨著互聯(lián)網(wǎng)技術(shù)與金融服務(wù)融合而生的“互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融”,不僅提高了信息透明度,降低了交易成本,同時也在一定程度上影響了宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)。2013年以來,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融出現(xiàn)快速成長,P2P網(wǎng)貸、第三方支付、眾籌等業(yè)務(wù)的蓬勃發(fā)展使整個行業(yè)呈現(xiàn)出多元化、差異化的發(fā)展特征。互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融以其交易迅捷、多場景體驗的優(yōu)勢沖擊了傳統(tǒng)金融業(yè),改變了金融體系的狀態(tài),體系的細(xì)微變化將會影響到貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制,進(jìn)而影響政策調(diào)控實體經(jīng)濟(jì)的效果。本文以互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融對中國貨幣政策資產(chǎn)價格傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制的影響為主題展開的理論分析與實證研究具有一定理論與實踐意義。本文在梳理了國內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,對互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融規(guī)模、種類、監(jiān)管的發(fā)展及貨幣政策資產(chǎn)價格導(dǎo)機(jī)制的變遷歷程進(jìn)行總結(jié)歸納,發(fā)現(xiàn)2013年為我國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融開始快速發(fā)展的突變點,以托賓Q理論、生命周期理論為基礎(chǔ)結(jié)合我國國情分別展開理論分析與實證檢驗,最后得出結(jié)論并給出建議。通過理論分析發(fā)現(xiàn),互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融能夠增強(qiáng)流動性效應(yīng)與資產(chǎn)價格效應(yīng),使貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)至資產(chǎn)價格環(huán)節(jié)傳導(dǎo)更加有效。結(jié)合理論分析結(jié)果進(jìn)行實證分析探討以下兩個問題:2013年前后兩個互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融不同發(fā)展程度時期貨幣需求的資產(chǎn)價格彈性是否發(fā)生變化;如果發(fā)生變化,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融是如何影響貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)至資產(chǎn)價格環(huán)節(jié)。針對問題一,本文采用2008至2013年與2013至2016年兩個時期的貨幣變動量、資產(chǎn)價格指數(shù)等變量的月度數(shù)據(jù),分別構(gòu)建VAR模,發(fā)現(xiàn)在不同的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融發(fā)展時期貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)至資產(chǎn)價格環(huán)節(jié)確實存在不同,2013后資產(chǎn)價格對于貨幣供給量的敏感度有所提升。針對問題二,基于2014至2016年期間貨幣增長率、互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融發(fā)展指數(shù)增長率、資產(chǎn)價格指數(shù)增長率的月度數(shù)據(jù)構(gòu)建VAR模型,通過格蘭杰因果檢驗、協(xié)整關(guān)系檢驗、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解分析后發(fā)現(xiàn),貨幣供應(yīng)量的變動將對互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融發(fā)展指數(shù)產(chǎn)生正向的影響,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融指數(shù)則會正向影響資產(chǎn)價格指數(shù)。互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融在貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)至資產(chǎn)價格環(huán)節(jié)中發(fā)揮了正向的作用,加強(qiáng)了貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)至資產(chǎn)價格這一環(huán)節(jié)的聯(lián)動性。因此,我國政府需充分考慮互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融對資產(chǎn)價格傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制的影響,及時選擇更為有效中介目標(biāo),規(guī)范發(fā)展資本市場,健全互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融風(fēng)險管理體制培養(yǎng)專業(yè)人才,構(gòu)建有效的橫向合作監(jiān)管體系,借助互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融推進(jìn)利率市場化進(jìn)程帶動普惠金融發(fā)展,讓貨幣政策在調(diào)控實體經(jīng)濟(jì)方面發(fā)揮應(yīng)有的作用。
[Abstract]:The development of modern information technology, represented by the Internet, has brought profound influence to the financial industry. Internet finance, created by the convergence of Internet technology and financial services, has not only increased information transparency and reduced transaction costs, but has also had some impact on the macro economy since 2013. With the rapid development of Internet finance, such as P2P network loan, third-party payment, crowdfunding and so on, the whole industry presents the characteristics of diversification and differentiation. Internet finance impacts the traditional financial industry and changes the state of the financial system with its advantage of quick transaction and multi-scene experience. The slight change of the system will affect the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and then affect the effect of the real economy. The theoretical analysis and empirical research on the influence of Internet finance on the asset price transmission mechanism of monetary policy in China are of theoretical and practical significance. On the basis of combing the relevant literature at home and abroad, this paper sums up and sums up the development of Internet financial scale, types, supervision and the evolution of monetary policy asset price guidance mechanism. It is found that 2013 is the point of rapid development of Internet finance in China. Based on Tobin Q theory, life cycle theory and China's national conditions, theoretical analysis and empirical test are carried out respectively. Finally, conclusions are drawn and suggestions are given. Through theoretical analysis, it is found that Internet finance can enhance the liquidity effect and asset price effect, and make the transmission of monetary policy to asset price link more effective. Combining the results of theoretical analysis with empirical analysis, this paper discusses the following two issues: whether the elasticity of asset prices of monetary demand changes in two periods of different development levels of Internet finance before and after 2013; if changes occur, Internet finance is how to influence monetary policy transmission to asset price link. To solve the first problem, this paper uses the monthly data of currency change, asset price index and other variables from 2008 to 2013 and 2013 to 2016 to construct the VAR model, respectively. It is found that the sensitivity of asset price to money supply has been improved after 2013 when monetary policy is transmitted to asset price in different Internet financial development period. Secondly, based on the monthly data of monetary growth rate, Internet financial development index growth rate and asset price index growth rate between 2014 and 2016, the VAR model is constructed, which is based on Granger causality test and cointegration test. The impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis show that the change of money supply will have a positive impact on the Internet financial development index, while the Internet financial index will positively affect the asset price index. Internet finance plays a positive role in the transmission of monetary policy to asset price, and strengthens the linkage between monetary policy transmission and asset price. Therefore, our government should fully consider the influence of Internet finance on asset price transmission mechanism, select more effective intermediary target in time, standardize the development of capital market, and perfect Internet financial risk management system to train professionals. To construct an effective horizontal cooperative supervision system, to promote the interest rate marketization process with the help of Internet finance to promote the development of inclusive finance, and to make monetary policy play its due role in regulating and controlling the real economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F724.6;F832;F822.0

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