本文關(guān)鍵詞：國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)、匯率與預(yù)期管理——人民幣納入SDR貨幣籃子的效應(yīng)分析　出處：《中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)》2017年04期 　論文類(lèi)型：期刊論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： SDR 國(guó)際資本流動(dòng) 預(yù)期管理 貨幣國(guó)際化 匯率波動(dòng)

【摘要】：近年來(lái),國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)對(duì)人民幣匯率走勢(shì)的影響越發(fā)顯著,如何引導(dǎo)資本流動(dòng)成為匯率預(yù)期管理的關(guān)鍵。人民幣加入SDR,可增進(jìn)SDR代表性與正當(dāng)性,同時(shí)借助IMF背書(shū),提升國(guó)際影響力,引導(dǎo)資本流動(dòng)。筆者通過(guò)構(gòu)建兩國(guó)的代際交疊模型探討貨幣入籃SDR的作用機(jī)理。在信息不對(duì)稱(chēng)的理論假設(shè)下,貨幣入籃SDR可以從信息結(jié)構(gòu)影響債權(quán)人監(jiān)督債務(wù)人的交易成本,引起資本收益率變動(dòng),進(jìn)而引導(dǎo)資本流動(dòng)形成匯率波動(dòng)壓力。檢驗(yàn)SDR其他權(quán)重貨幣,驗(yàn)證了入籃SDR對(duì)資本流動(dòng)影響的推斷。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):影響主要針對(duì)長(zhǎng)期資本流動(dòng),具有滯后性,短期資本不顯著;長(zhǎng)期資本總量上升,凈額受貨幣發(fā)行國(guó)資本存量與合意資本的差異影響。人民幣納入SDR有利于加快國(guó)際化進(jìn)程,倒逼制度建設(shè)和進(jìn)一步提升市場(chǎng)開(kāi)發(fā)程度,影響國(guó)際資本流動(dòng),改變匯率變動(dòng)的預(yù)期。但人民幣國(guó)際化仍需在幣值穩(wěn)定的基礎(chǔ)上推進(jìn)。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the influence of international capital flow on RMB exchange rate trend is more and more significant. How to guide capital flow to become the key of exchange rate expectation management. At the same time, with the help of IMF endorsement, enhance international influence, guide capital flow. The author discusses the mechanism of currency basket SDR by constructing the intergenerational overlapping model of the two countries. Under the theoretical hypothesis of information asymmetry. Currency entry SDR can influence the transaction cost of creditor to supervise the debtor from the information structure, cause the change of capital return rate, and then lead the capital flow to form the pressure of exchange rate fluctuation. Test the other weighted currency of SDR. The results show that the impact of SDR on capital flow is mainly aimed at long-term capital flow, which is lagging behind, and the short-term capital is not significant. The increase of the total long-term capital is influenced by the difference between the capital stock of the issuing countries and the desirable capital. The introduction of RMB into SDR is conducive to speeding up the process of internationalization, forcing the construction of institutions and further enhancing the degree of market development. Affecting international capital flows and changing expectations of exchange rate movements, however, the internationalization of the yuan still needs to be promoted on a stable basis.
【作者單位】： 青島大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;青島大學(xué)商學(xué)院;
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.6
【正文快照】： 一、引言2016年10月1日,IMF宣布人民幣納入特別提款權(quán)(Special Drawing Rights,簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng)SDR)。SDR是IMF針對(duì)布雷頓森林體系解體后,為了解決國(guó)際間流動(dòng)性或國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備不足的問(wèn)題,于1969年創(chuàng)設(shè)。SDR由多種貨幣按照對(duì)應(yīng)權(quán)重組成,每5年對(duì)所選貨幣和權(quán)重進(jìn)行一次調(diào)整。貨幣的選擇標(biāo)準(zhǔn):一

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