【摘要】：基于動態(tài)物質(zhì)流分析方法及時間序列分析方法,本文以我國1949-2012年年度數(shù)據(jù)為樣本,研究了工業(yè)化演進過程中我國經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)出與鋼社會蓄積之間的關(guān)聯(lián)。研究結(jié)果表明,隨著經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展和工業(yè)化進程的演進,鋼以實物產(chǎn)品的形式不斷蓄積于我國社會當(dāng)中,且蓄積的速度不斷加快。我國經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)出與鋼的社會蓄積之間存在長期協(xié)整關(guān)系,鋼的社會蓄積既能在短期內(nèi)推動經(jīng)濟的增長,又影響著經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)出的長期整體走勢,而經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)出只是鋼社會蓄積變化的長期原因。這說明我國的經(jīng)濟建設(shè)高度依賴鋼的使用,而且經(jīng)濟增長對鋼需求的拉動是一個長期的過程,不會在短期內(nèi)對鋼的需求造成顯著影響。
[Abstract]:Based on the method of dynamic material flow analysis and time series analysis, this paper studies the relationship between economic output and steel social accumulation in the process of industrialization evolution using the annual data of China from 1949 to 2012 as samples. The results show that with the development of economy and the evolution of industrialization, steel accumulates in our society in the form of physical products, and the speed of accumulation is accelerating. There is a long-term cointegration relationship between economic output and social accumulation of steel in China. The social accumulation of steel can not only promote economic growth in the short term, but also affect the long-term overall trend of economic output. Economic output is only a long-term reason for the accumulation and change of steel society. This indicates that the economic construction of our country is highly dependent on the use of steel, and the pulling of economic growth to steel demand is a long-term process and will not have a significant impact on steel demand in the short term.
【作者單位】： 哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項目(71273074)
【分類號】：F224;F124;F426.31
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本文編號：2299764