本文關(guān)鍵詞：實際有效匯率對我國主要宏觀經(jīng)濟變量影響的實證研究，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

        在中國經(jīng)濟日益開放和經(jīng)濟總量日益增長的國內(nèi)形勢下，同時在世界性的金融危機發(fā)生逐步頻繁和經(jīng)濟金融沖擊在國際之間越來越明顯的國際形勢下，我國的人民幣匯率水平已經(jīng)成為國內(nèi)國外理論界、實業(yè)界、政府以及我國民眾高度關(guān)注的一個主要核心經(jīng)濟變量。因此一個合理的人民幣匯率水平，不僅有助于我國與世界各國之間進行經(jīng)濟與貿(mào)易往來，也有助于我國經(jīng)濟保持長期的穩(wěn)定、持續(xù)以及高效發(fā)展有著重要的意義。新千年以來我國經(jīng)濟出現(xiàn)了持續(xù)高速的增長，國際社會中以美國為首的國家強烈要求人民幣升值，人民幣升值預期不斷強化已經(jīng)使我國人民幣匯率升值成為今后的發(fā)展路徑，然而匯率作為我國與世界國家經(jīng)濟交流的橋梁和媒介，人民幣匯率水平的變動對我國的宏觀經(jīng)濟將產(chǎn)生重大影響。我國宏觀經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的主要目標是保持物價穩(wěn)定、增加社會就業(yè)、保持國際收支平衡和促進經(jīng)濟增長四個基本目標。在這四個目標中雖然促進經(jīng)濟增長是最重要的目標，但是要實現(xiàn)這個最重要目標的基礎(chǔ)是依靠物價的穩(wěn)定、社會就業(yè)的增加以及保持國際收支的平衡。所以在我國對外開放水平不斷深化的形勢下，保持我國物價水平、增加社會就業(yè)以及保持國際收支平衡變的更加復雜，因為要實現(xiàn)這三個宏觀經(jīng)濟目標不僅要保持我國內(nèi)部經(jīng)濟的均衡，同時也要維持我國外部經(jīng)濟的均衡，內(nèi)外均衡的同時實現(xiàn)的過程中匯率這個核心經(jīng)濟變量在其中起著決定性的作用。隨著世界經(jīng)濟一體化趨勢的不斷深化，我國的匯率制度以及匯率政策也要隨著我國經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展和世界經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展而變化，，先前的匯率制度以及匯率政策已經(jīng)不適合我國現(xiàn)在經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展狀況。因此，我國在2005年重新啟動一次匯率體制改革，其實質(zhì)上是為了完善我國有管理的浮動匯率制度上而做出重要調(diào)整。我國這次匯率體制的改革改變了我國匯率的決定機制以及增加了匯率的波動性，由參考一籃子貨幣的匯率使我國的人民幣實際有效匯率在宏觀經(jīng)濟的運行當中凸現(xiàn)出來，我國人民幣實際有效匯率對我國宏觀經(jīng)濟調(diào)節(jié)力度逐步深化，因此研究我國人民幣實際有效匯率對我國宏觀調(diào)控主要經(jīng)濟變量的影響擺在了更加突出與重要的位置上。研究我國人民幣實際有效匯率與我國主要宏觀經(jīng)濟變量的影響關(guān)系也就體現(xiàn)在三個主要方面，即人民幣實際有匯率與物價水平的關(guān)系、人民幣實際有效匯率與充分就業(yè)的關(guān)系、人民幣實際有效匯率與貿(mào)易收支的關(guān)系以及人民幣實際有效匯率與外國直接投資的關(guān)系來實證研究。在實證研究人民幣實際有效匯率與這三者關(guān)系之前，詳細地研究了匯率本身的決定機制和運行規(guī)律。首先，根據(jù)我國在2005年匯率改革的基礎(chǔ)上，依據(jù)現(xiàn)行的匯率制度和匯率政策對我國1994到2010年的人民幣實際有效匯率的月度數(shù)據(jù)進行度量，我國人民幣實際有效匯率能夠真實的度量我國人民幣的實際價值以及外幣對比關(guān)系，采用我國與主要的貿(mào)易伙伴國之間變化的貿(mào)易量占我國總貿(mào)易的份額來衡量其外幣在我國人民幣實際有效匯率形成的權(quán)重，這種以動態(tài)變化度量的人民幣實際有效匯率對我國利用匯率水平來調(diào)節(jié)宏觀經(jīng)濟中的主要經(jīng)濟變量具有重要的參考價值和借鑒意義。人民幣實際有效匯率作為匯率真實價值的體現(xiàn)，其本質(zhì)是度量外幣的價值而具有價格的特征，作為具有價格特性的經(jīng)濟變量就決定了人民幣實際有效匯率本身具有波動性，并在長期內(nèi)有趨于均衡的目標路徑，因此要保持我國人民幣匯率在經(jīng)濟運行中處于合理和可控的范圍，才能保證我國經(jīng)濟高效平穩(wěn)發(fā)展。綜合考慮以均衡實際匯率理論的基礎(chǔ)上，以實際測算的我國1994-2010年的人民幣實際有效匯率的月度數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)，對我國的人民幣實際有效匯率的短期均衡與失調(diào)以及人民幣實際有效匯率的長期均衡與失調(diào)情況進行了詳細分析。在充分的了解人民幣實際有效匯率自身波動性和失調(diào)性的基礎(chǔ)上，才能更切合實際的研究人民幣實際有效匯率與我國主要宏觀經(jīng)濟變量的影響作用關(guān)系。在我國匯率自身的波動以及匯率對其他經(jīng)濟變量的影響中，能更加準確的把握我國人民幣匯率對各個經(jīng)濟變量的傳遞影響關(guān)系，為我國制定宏觀經(jīng)濟調(diào)控政策和調(diào)節(jié)手段提供基本的理論依據(jù)和實證檢驗。物價水平的穩(wěn)定是我國宏觀調(diào)控的關(guān)鍵性目標之一，人民幣實際有效匯率作為衡量本國貨幣的外幣真實價值，其匯率自身的波動一定會經(jīng)過傳導作用最終作用于經(jīng)濟運行中價格水平這個主要的經(jīng)濟變量。衡量我國價格水平的主要價格指數(shù)是進口價格指數(shù)和消費者價格指數(shù)，這兩個指數(shù)的變化直接影響著我國整體價格水平的變動。因此根據(jù)開放經(jīng)濟宏觀經(jīng)濟學的基本理論，建立人民幣實際有效匯率與價格水平的理論模型，從模型中選取主要的影響經(jīng)濟因素變量來分析人民幣實際有效匯率對我國物價水平的影響。就業(yè)是我國利民之本，是人民群眾改善生活的基本前提和根本途徑。我國就業(yè)狀況切實關(guān)系到人民的切身利益，關(guān)系到改革發(fā)展穩(wěn)定的全局，關(guān)系到我國全面建設(shè)小康社會的宏偉目標實現(xiàn)。我國的就業(yè)形勢目前十分嚴峻，主要表現(xiàn)在一方面我國現(xiàn)在存在大量剩余勞動力的，隨著農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)力的提高大量閑置農(nóng)村勞動力從農(nóng)村轉(zhuǎn)移到城市，另一方面我國目前的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)吸納勞動力的數(shù)量有限，勞動力需求和供給的失衡導致我國的就業(yè)形勢不容樂觀。通過建立適合我國宏觀經(jīng)濟發(fā)展形勢的一般可計算均衡模型，分析了我國人民幣實際有效匯率的變動對我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)中的第一產(chǎn)業(yè)、第二產(chǎn)業(yè)以及第三產(chǎn)業(yè)勞動就業(yè)的影響，進而為我國通過人民幣匯率變動實現(xiàn)增加就業(yè)緩解嚴峻就業(yè)形勢，最終實現(xiàn)我國宏觀調(diào)控目標提供政策性的模擬分析。國際收支是國與國因經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易交易而引起的貨幣收付或以貨幣表示的財產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移。影響開放國家國際收支的兩個主要因素是進出口貿(mào)易狀況和資本流動狀況，而匯率作為國際收支賬戶活動的主要交換媒介，人民幣實際有效匯率的變動將對我國的貿(mào)易收支和資本流動有著重要影響作用。在總結(jié)和歸納國際收支相關(guān)理論后，結(jié)合我國貿(mào)易收支和外國直接投資的主要特征和表現(xiàn)，對我國人民幣實際有效匯率對我國貿(mào)易收支和外國直接投資進行實證分析，在分析人民幣實際有效匯率對貿(mào)易收支的影響主要應(yīng)用向量誤差修正模型（VEC），而在分析我國人民幣實際有效匯率對外國直接投資的影響，主要采用國際面板數(shù)據(jù)對我國人民幣實際有效匯率對外國直接投資的影響進行實證檢驗。

    With the situation of economy opening up and the amount of it increasing up gradually,andwith the complexion of wordwide economic crisis occursing on step by step and the financeimpact getting more and more obvious among countries ,the level of the RMB exchange rate inour country has become a main core economic variation that the area of theorities fromcountries ,industries, government and inland public concern about severely.Therefore,Not only bea sound standard of RMB exchange rate helpful to economy and business transaction between ourcountry and other countries,but also generate important significances that keep our economydeveloping chronically,stably,constantly and effectively.Especally since the new century Chineseeconomy has always been rising rapidly, meanwhile the stressure that the countries headed byAmerica request for appreciating RMB is more and more intense ,China S exchange rate has beena development pathway later on.But as a link of conversation between China and the world,thealteration level of exchange rate will significantly influences on domestic macro-economiy.Themain aim to develop Chinese macro-economy is maintainning the price,adding socialcareer,keeping the balance of international payments .Althouh among these goals promoting theeconomy increasing is the most important,only can complete it depends on the rest of threegoals.So during the time of deepening opening up continually,holding the standard ofprice,Increasing the employment and maintaining the balance of international payments wouldbecome more complex.For finishing the three macro-economic goals supports the equal ofChinese economy and outside one.In the progression of accomplishing internal and externalbalance,the exchange rate refered to the core economic variable quantity is essential for them.With the trends of globalization deepening,China’S policy about the exchange rate need tochange as the variation of the Chinese and world’economy developing.Because the formermonetary policy and institution has never been suitable for the developing case of Chineceeconomy today.So we resetted a great reform of the regime on exchange rate in order to make ourcountry’s fluctuate economic syetem better. This reform alter the determitive institution in ourcountry and improve the float,which makes Chinese exchange rate deepen gradually ourregulation of major macro-economy,so it is the research on exchange rate that the influence onmain economic indexes in Chinese macro-control is putted on the important and outstandingposition.We study the relation between the exchange rate and the influence on major macro-economyindex on the basis of the three steady connections between exchange and price, full employmentand balance of income and outcome.Studying the feature and regular pattern of exchange rate is indeed in detail before discussing their connections.Firstly,in accordance of the reform aboutexchange rate since 2005,the monthly data of Real Effective Exchange Rate(REER) from 1994 to2010 is measured according to institution and policy of rate of exchange nowadays,in China,theREER is able to weigh the over real value and its contrast.We should adopt the total trade sum thatincludes the trade amount of China and the main trade partner is adopted to measure its foreigncurrency that forms weght in our exchange of RMB,and the RMB exchange rate which ismeasured dymatically would reflect the real value of RMB,.Therefore,it owns importantreferences and mirror as regard to the major economic items of macro-economy which is regulatedby the level of exchange rate.The authentic exchange rate value shows the real effective value which owns the feature ofprice because of valuing foreign currency ,and as an economic variation which owns character ofprice,the REER decides the wave of itself and has a way to be incline to balance.So only keepingChinese exchange rate in a reasonable and managed range during the business moving can weensure a steady progress of economy.There is an explicit analysis and comprehensiveconsideration on the REER of RMB whose short term or long term equalization and imbalancein the light of theory of balancing real exchange rate along with monthly data of REER that iscalculated from 1994 to 2010.We are able to discuss on the influence on the relation betweenresearching on the REER and major macro economic index.In China, during the time of the floatof exchange rate and other economic variation that is impacted,it is critical to grasp exchangeinteracting with the transportion of other economic variation more exactly for providing the policyof macro economic control wth elementary theoretical bases of regulation and practicalexperience.According to the goal which is achieved through daring to regulate the motion ofmacco economy by our government.in the following sections,We may study the exchange rateand its impact on them to finish the main aims of macro control to some the standard ofprice,increasing careers and the balance of international income.One of the key aims is stabilizing the price level, as a foreign currency value which weighsdomestic money ,the wave of REER must impact on the main economic variation of the pricelevel finally through the effect of economy conduction.The price indexes of input and output aremain factors which measure the price level of China.The variation of these two indexes willdirectly influence on the transformation of the whole country’s price level,so it is necessary toestablish theoretical model of price standard and REER as well as select the correspondentinfluential variation of economy factor for analyzing the influence on our price level,which issupported by elementary theory of opening economy about macro-economy.Employment is a basement of benefitting the people,and is a basic condition and radicalpathway which improve the living standard of public.There are a series of aspects such as theprofits of people ,the situation of stable reform,as well as the great achievement of totallyconstructing well-to-do society being correlating with the situation of employment.Nowadays,the employment situation of our country is rather stern,on the one hand,there are plenties of remaininglabor force in our country,and these people transferred from villages to cities.As the improvrmentof agriculture productivity,on the other hand,the number of recent structure of industry absorbingthe labor force is limited,therefore,the imbalance between labor force supply and demond wouldlead our situation of employment to pessimism.We should set a general calculated balanced modelwhich is suitable for Chinese macro-developing cases and ought to analyse the variation of REERinfluencing on the first ,the second and the third industry,which offers references about the policiesto the macro-control aims that are finished by the variation of exchange rate adding working torelieve severe situation of getting jobs.The income and expenditure of internation is a property metastasis which is expressed bymonetary or currency receipts and payment resulted from dealings among countries.Two mainfactors which affected the receipts and payment of internation from opening countries are thestates about input-output trade and inflow and outflow capital,while the exchange rate is regardedas a main media of an account of international income and payment.The variation of REER willgenerate an important effect on the balance of trade and capital flow in China.After summarizingthe relevant theory of international balance of payment,in China,the real effective exchange rate ismade a positive analysis in terms of the Balance of Trade and Foreign DirectInvestment,separately,the effect on the balance of trade from the REER is analysed mainly throughthe application of Vector Error Correction Modle(VECM),while analyzing the impact on ForeignDirect Investment from REER is screened by the international panel data.

實際有效匯率對我國主要宏觀經(jīng)濟變量影響的實證研究

中文摘要4-6Abstract6-8前言11-13第1章 匯率與主要宏觀經(jīng)濟變量的研究綜述13-31    1.1 匯率與均衡匯率的研究綜述13-18    1.2 匯率與價格水平的研究綜述18-23    1.3 匯率對就業(yè)影響的 CGE 模型研究綜述23-25    1.4 匯率與國際收支的研究綜述25-27    1.5 匯率與外國直接投資的研究綜述27-31第2章 人民幣實際有效匯率的度量及其波動性31-45    2.1 匯率重要概念進行界定與說明31-32    2.2 實際有效匯率的構(gòu)建方法32-36    2.3 匯率波動性的概念界定及描述性分析36-40    2.4 人民幣實際有效匯率的波動性解析40-43    2.5 本章小結(jié)43-45第3章 人民幣實際有效匯率的均衡與失調(diào)45-61    3.1 均衡匯率理論45-46    3.2 人民幣實際有效匯率的均衡46-55    3.3 人民幣實際有效匯率的失調(diào)55-59    3.4 本章小結(jié)59-61第4章 人民幣實際有效匯率對價格水平的影響61-83    4.1 實際有效匯率對價格水平傳遞的理論模型61-68    4.2 人民幣實際有效匯率對我國進口價格水平的影響68-75    4.3 人民幣實際有效匯率對國內(nèi)消費價格的影響75-81    4.4 本章小結(jié)81-83第5章 人民幣實際有效匯率對就業(yè)的影響83-111    5.1 就業(yè)的社會核算矩陣的構(gòu)造83-98    5.2 可計算一般均衡模型98-104    5.3 人民幣實際有效匯率對我國就業(yè)的影響104-109    5.4 本章小結(jié)109-111第6章 人民幣實際有效匯率對貿(mào)易收支的影響111-133    6.1 匯率與國際收支的理論描述111-116    6.2 我國國際收支的主要特征和表現(xiàn)116-123    6.3 人民幣實際有效匯率對我國貿(mào)易收支的影響123-132    6.4 本章小結(jié)132-133第7章 人民幣實際有效匯率對外國直接投資的影響133-153    7.1 匯率與國外投資的理論與實證描述133-135    7.2 外國直接投資在我國國民經(jīng)濟中的地位和作用135-141    7.3 實際有效匯率對我國外國直接投資的影響分析141-151    7.4 本章小結(jié)151-153結(jié)論153-155參考文獻155-165作者簡介及在學期間所取得的科研成果165-167后記和致謝167

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：實際有效匯率對我國主要宏觀經(jīng)濟變量影響的實證研究，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。