發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-02-14 09:17

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 對(duì)外貿(mào)易 能源消費(fèi) 協(xié)整檢驗(yàn) 投入產(chǎn)出分析法　出處：《華中師范大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：改革開(kāi)放以來(lái),我國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)生了高速穩(wěn)定的發(fā)展,但與此同時(shí),我國(guó)能源消費(fèi)總量的大幅提高也引起了國(guó)際上的關(guān)注。中國(guó)具有出口導(dǎo)向型的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)模式,出口貿(mào)易額在國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中所占的比重越來(lái)越大,但由于出口產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)不平衡,使得出口產(chǎn)品中包含了大量的“內(nèi)涵能源”,極大地刺激了我國(guó)對(duì)能源的消費(fèi)。隨著我國(guó)能源缺口逐漸擴(kuò)大,由于環(huán)境問(wèn)題承受的國(guó)際輿論的壓力越來(lái)越大,能源已經(jīng)成為制約我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)一步發(fā)展的重要因素,討論出口貿(mào)易和能源消費(fèi)之間在短期內(nèi)的動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)系及長(zhǎng)期均衡關(guān)系無(wú)疑是非常有必要的。本文的實(shí)證分析主要分為兩部分,首先通過(guò)建立計(jì)量模型,對(duì)我國(guó)在1993-2012年期間產(chǎn)生的能源消費(fèi)進(jìn)行分析,運(yùn)用VAR模型、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)及脈沖響應(yīng)分析等方法,得到如下結(jié)論：出口總額占國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值比重提高,無(wú)論是在經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)還是在統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)意義上都顯著導(dǎo)致人均能源消費(fèi)量的增大,即經(jīng)濟(jì)“外向度”越高越會(huì)引起能源消費(fèi)的上升,并根據(jù)該結(jié)論提出假設(shè),我國(guó)出口平均能源強(qiáng)度大于總產(chǎn)出平均能源強(qiáng)度,即我國(guó)出口結(jié)構(gòu)更傾向于密集使用能源。在第二部分的實(shí)證分析中,為了驗(yàn)證假設(shè)采用投入產(chǎn)出分析法,測(cè)算出在我國(guó)出口中較為重要的24個(gè)行業(yè)的能源強(qiáng)度。再通過(guò)加權(quán)平均,分別測(cè)算出我國(guó)總產(chǎn)出平均能源強(qiáng)度及進(jìn)出口平均能源強(qiáng)度。結(jié)果驗(yàn)證了假設(shè)的正確性,我國(guó)出口平均能源強(qiáng)度大于總產(chǎn)出平均能源強(qiáng)度,進(jìn)口平均能源強(qiáng)度最小,說(shuō)明中國(guó)出口產(chǎn)品構(gòu)成更傾向于密集使用能源進(jìn)行生產(chǎn)。隨后針對(duì)實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果,從宏、微觀兩個(gè)層面,對(duì)能源價(jià)格機(jī)制、出口優(yōu)惠政策、出口產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、出口企業(yè)的技術(shù)等四個(gè)問(wèn)題上給出合理的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has experienced rapid and stable development, but at the same time, the substantial increase in the total amount of energy consumption in China has also aroused international concern. China has an export-oriented economic growth model. The export trade volume accounts for an increasing proportion of the national economy, but because of the imbalance in the export industrial structure, The export products contain a large number of "energy sources of connotation", which greatly stimulate the consumption of energy in China. As the energy gap in our country gradually expands, the pressure of international public opinion on environmental problems is increasing. Energy has become an important factor restricting the further development of China's economy. It is undoubtedly necessary to discuss the dynamic and long-term equilibrium relationship between export trade and energy consumption in the short term. First of all, through the establishment of econometric models, the energy consumption generated in China during 1993-2012 is analyzed. The methods of VAR model, cointegration test, Granger causality test and impulse response analysis are used. The following conclusions are drawn: the increase in the share of total exports in GDP, both in economics and in statistics, has led to a significant increase in per capita energy consumption, that is, the higher the economic "outward orientation", the higher the energy consumption. According to this conclusion, the average energy intensity of China's export is higher than the average energy intensity of total output, that is, the export structure of our country is more inclined to use energy intensively. In the second part of the empirical analysis, In order to verify the hypothesis using input-output analysis, the energy intensity of 24 industries that are more important in China's exports is calculated. The average energy intensity of China's total output and the average energy intensity of import and export are calculated respectively. The results verify the correctness of the hypothesis that the average energy intensity of China's export is greater than the average energy intensity of total output, and the average energy intensity of import is the smallest. It shows that China's export product composition is more inclined to use energy intensively for production. Then, in view of the empirical test results, from the macro and micro levels, the energy price mechanism, export preferential policies, and export industrial structure are discussed. The technology of export enterprises and other four issues to give reasonable policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F752.62;F206

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本文編號(hào)：1510367