本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國石油和光伏電池大國效應(yīng)的實證研究　出處：《北方工業(yè)大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 能源產(chǎn)品 大國效應(yīng) 市場勢力 SMR模型 剛性

【摘要】：中國在國際能源市場的需求和供給上占有重要地位,卻陷入了貴買和賤賣的貿(mào)易困境。本文以石油進口和光伏電池出口為例,用大國效應(yīng)的視角對這種貿(mào)易困境進行探究,即進出口量變化對國際價格的影響。 首先,本文通過相關(guān)系數(shù)法和構(gòu)建VAR模型、Granger因果檢驗方法證明了中國在石油進口和光伏電池出口上具有大國效應(yīng),而且這種大國效應(yīng)還是負(fù)大國效應(yīng),即中國進口量越大,需求越大,價格越高；出口量越大,價格越低。后面章節(jié)對中國石油和光伏電池貿(mào)易負(fù)大國效應(yīng)的原因進行探析,從國際市場勢力和剛性兩個方面展開。 其次,中國石油進口量和光伏電池出口量很大,卻不能引導(dǎo)價格向自己有利的方向發(fā)展,本文采用面板數(shù)據(jù)模型和SMR模型對中國石油進口國際市場勢力進行研究。得出如下結(jié)論：中國石油進口不具有買方市場勢力,與此同時還面臨強大的賣方市場勢力,這導(dǎo)致中國在石油進口只能接受國際石油價格變動,沒有談判議價能力。本文認(rèn)為中國石油進口沒有國際市場勢力,與賣方集中度高,中國國內(nèi)石油替代品和新能源發(fā)展緩慢有關(guān)。中國光伏電池核心技術(shù)缺乏及遭遇“雙反”制裁等反映出中國光伏電池缺乏國際市場勢力。 然后,國際油價的不斷上漲,中國石油的進口量非但沒有因為價格上升而下降,反而隨著價格上升繼續(xù)增加,光伏電池價格下降,中國的出口量卻沒有下降。本文認(rèn)為這是因為中國的石油進口需求和光伏電池供給具有一定剛性,并對剛性概念進行了界定以及實證檢驗。在協(xié)整檢驗的基礎(chǔ)上,估計石油進口需求方程和光伏電池供給方程,從而得到中國石油進口需求收入彈性和需求價格彈性,并且前者大于后者,從而得出中國石油進口需求具有一定剛性的結(jié)論；中國光伏電池出口彈性大于供給價格彈性,光伏電池出口具有一定剛性。 最后,根據(jù)實證分析結(jié)果,在石油貿(mào)易中,提出中國應(yīng)該通過技術(shù)手段和經(jīng)濟手段來降低剛性,提高市場勢力；在光伏電池貿(mào)易中,提出增加國內(nèi)需求,產(chǎn)業(yè)整合,重視技術(shù)開發(fā)等建議,以解決中國能源產(chǎn)品的貿(mào)易困境。
[Abstract]:The demand and supply of China in the international energy market is an important position in the international energy market , but it is caught in the trade dilemma of expensive buying and sale . In this paper , taking the oil import and photovoltaic cell export as an example , this paper probes into the dilemma of trade with the view of big country effect , that is , the influence of the change of import and export volume on international price . First , by using correlation coefficient method and constructing VAR model , this paper proves that China has great powers on oil import and photovoltaic cell exports , and the bigger the big country effect is , the higher the demand , the higher the price , the higher the export volume , the lower the price . The later chapter explores the causes of the negative country effect of China ' s oil and photovoltaic cell trade , and develops from the two aspects of international market forces and rigidity . Second , China ' s oil import volume and PV cell export volume are very large , but can not lead the price to develop in a favorable direction , this paper uses the panel data model and SMR model to study the international market forces of China ' s oil import . On the basis of co - integration test , the demand for oil import demand and the supply equation of photovoltaic cell are estimated , and the former is bigger than the latter , so as to conclude that China ' s oil import demand has certain rigidity . The elasticity of PV cell outlet is greater than the supply price elasticity , and the outlet of photovoltaic cell has certain rigidity . Finally , according to the results of the empirical analysis , it is suggested that China should reduce rigidity by means of technical means and economic means to improve the market power . In the photovoltaic cell trade , it is proposed to increase domestic demand , industry integration , attach importance to the development of technology and so on , so as to solve the trade plight of China ' s energy products .

【學(xué)位授予單位】：北方工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F426.22;F426.61;F752

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本文編號：1391370