本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口貿(mào)易持續(xù)時(shí)間分析　出處：《華中科技大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 農(nóng)產(chǎn)品 進(jìn)口貿(mào)易 生存分析 持續(xù)時(shí)間

【摘要】：貿(mào)易關(guān)系的持續(xù)時(shí)間是研究貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)之謎的新興議題之一,但我國(guó)對(duì)貿(mào)易持續(xù)性的研究起步較晚,且主要研究對(duì)象為中國(guó)進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易及農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口貿(mào)易。本文基于UN-COMTRADE數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)中1996-2013年HS6分位產(chǎn)品水平數(shù)據(jù),采用生存分析法對(duì)中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口貿(mào)易關(guān)系的持續(xù)時(shí)間進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。首先,采用乘積極限法估計(jì)中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口貿(mào)易關(guān)系的生存時(shí)間,結(jié)果顯示生存時(shí)間的均值僅為3.5年,中位值為2年,表明從微觀產(chǎn)品層面看,中國(guó)對(duì)美國(guó)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口貿(mào)易關(guān)系是不穩(wěn)定的,新貿(mào)易關(guān)系的建立伴隨著原有貿(mào)易關(guān)系的失敗。貿(mào)易關(guān)系危險(xiǎn)率的負(fù)時(shí)間依存性表明維護(hù)現(xiàn)有貿(mào)易關(guān)系比開(kāi)發(fā)新貿(mào)易關(guān)系更重要。其次,采用乘積極限法和離散時(shí)間生存分析模型分析貿(mào)易關(guān)系持續(xù)時(shí)間的影響因素。一方面,基于乘積極限法,通過(guò)圖形描述各因素對(duì)貿(mào)易關(guān)系持續(xù)時(shí)間的影響,發(fā)現(xiàn)多貿(mào)易片段對(duì)貿(mào)易持續(xù)時(shí)間有負(fù)影響,初始貿(mào)易額對(duì)貿(mào)易持續(xù)時(shí)間有正影響。另一方面,通過(guò)離散時(shí)間生存分析模型分析影響貿(mào)易持續(xù)時(shí)間危險(xiǎn)率的各因素,發(fā)現(xiàn)多片段的貿(mào)易關(guān)系的危險(xiǎn)率顯著高于只有一個(gè)片段的貿(mào)易關(guān)系,不同種類農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的危險(xiǎn)率存在顯著差異,第四類農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的危險(xiǎn)率最低。最后,采用HS4分位產(chǎn)品層面的數(shù)據(jù)做穩(wěn)健性檢驗(yàn),結(jié)果表明,除了產(chǎn)品分類的估計(jì)結(jié)果稍有差異外,HS6分位和HS4分位數(shù)據(jù)的結(jié)論是一致的。
[Abstract]:The duration of the trade relationship is one of the emerging issues of trade growth puzzle, but China's research on persistent trade started late, and the main object of study for China import and export trade and export trade of agricultural products. In this paper, the UN-COMTRADE database in 1996-2013 HS6 product level data based on the empirical analysis of China duration on the relationship between import trade of agricultural products in the United States using survival analysis method. Firstly, the estimated survival time on the relationship between import trade of agricultural products in the United States of Chinese using the product limit method, the results show the mean survival time of only 3.5 years, median 2 years shows that, from the micro perspective of product, China is unstable on the relationship the United States imports of agricultural products, the establishment of new trade relations with the original trade relationship failure. The negative time trade relations risk dependence shows that the maintenance of existing trade relations More important than the development of new trade relations. Secondly, using the product limit method and discrete time survival analysis model to analyze factors affecting trade relationship duration. On the one hand, the product limit method based on the graphical description of factors affecting the duration of trade relations, found to have a negative influence on trade trade segment duration, there is the influence of initial trade on trade duration. On the other hand, through the discrete time survival analysis model to analyze the influencing factors of trade duration risk, found that the risk of trade relations between the multi fragment rate is significantly higher than only a fragment of the trade relationship, there are significant differences in the risk of different types of agricultural products, fourth types of risk the lowest rate of agricultural products. Finally, using HS4 product level data do robustness test results show that, in addition to estimate product classification results slightly. Therefore, HS6 The conclusion of the bit and HS4 division data is consistent.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F323.7;F752.61;F757.12

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