【摘要】：本文基于匯率籃子、波動區(qū)間、爬行速度三維指標構建了廣義的匯率制度識別框架,并利用狀態(tài)空間模型對中國的實際匯率制度及其變遷軌跡進行動態(tài)考察。結果表明:2005年匯改前中國事實上實行單一盯住美元的固定匯率制;2005-2008年、2010-2015年中國實行參照一籃子貨幣的浮動匯率制;而在2008-2010年間實行的是參考盯住一籃子貨幣的固定匯率制;匯改后人民幣匯率籃子中美元占比仍穩(wěn)定在86%-90%之間,其他貨幣主要起"點綴"作用;盡管人民幣相對一籃子貨幣存在趨勢性升值、貶值的變化,但人民幣的匯率制度彈性自2008年起長期未變;未來深化匯率形成機制改革可從完善人民幣中間價定價機制等角度入手。
[Abstract]:Based on the three-dimensional index of exchange rate basket, fluctuation range and crawling speed, this paper constructs a broad framework for the identification of exchange rate regime, and dynamically investigates the real exchange rate regime and its transition trajectory in China by using the state space model. The results show that before the exchange rate reform in 2005, China actually implemented a fixed exchange rate system with a single peg to the dollar, and in 2005-2008, China implemented a floating exchange rate system with reference to a basket of currencies from 2010 to 2015. The fixed exchange rate system with reference to a basket of currencies was implemented in 2008 / 2010. After the exchange rate reform, the share of the US dollar in the RMB exchange rate basket remained stable at 86% / 90%, while other currencies played a "dotted" role. In spite of the trend appreciation and devaluation of RMB relative to a basket of currencies, the elasticity of RMB exchange rate regime has not changed for a long time since 2008. Deepening the reform of exchange rate formation mechanism in the future can be done from the perspective of perfecting the RMB mid-rate pricing mechanism.
【作者單位】： 首都經濟貿易大學金融學院、金融風險研究院;
【基金】：國家社科基金青年項目“金磚國家應急儲備安排的風險分擔、收益分配與治理優(yōu)化問題研究”(15CJY081) 北京市教委社科計劃一般項目“應急儲備安排的機制障礙與破解路徑”(SM201610038002) 首都經濟貿易大學2015年中青年骨干教師培育項目和首都經濟貿易大學2013年度科研基金項目資助
【分類號】：F832.6

【參考文獻】

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本文編號：2446832