本文選題：銀行不良貸款評估 + 假設清算法　； 參考：《西南財經(jīng)大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：自1999年我國政府相繼成立四家政策性資產(chǎn)管理公司以來,通過幾次大規(guī)模剝離以及政府對銀行不良貸款控制方面所做的努力,我國銀行不良貸款問題有所減輕,不良貸款率有所降低,但不良貸款的增量仍舊沒有控制住。且在我國的不良貸款評估實踐中,沒有統(tǒng)一的金融不良貸款評估準則和技術規(guī)程,評估質量取決于評估人員的專業(yè)水平,并因我國市場經(jīng)濟體制原因,絕大部分評估人員不能做到準確把握銀行不良貸款市場,機械的運用固有的評估方法,直接導致評估價值和銀行不良貸款的實際處置價格出現(xiàn)較大偏離。另外,銀行不良貸款評估過程中,存在一定程度的價值操縱行為,使評估脫離了市場實際狀況。因此,完善我國金融不良貸款評估體系刻不容緩。在銀行不良貸款的評估方法上,自國際評估資產(chǎn)標準提出成本法、收益法和市場法三種金融不良貸款評估方法后,就被各國的資產(chǎn)評估機構廣泛運用。但由于我國銀行不良貸款的特殊復雜性和不良資產(chǎn)市場的發(fā)展情況,上述三種方法并不能直接運用于我國銀行不良貸款的評估實踐中�；谝陨锨闆r,我國學者都紛紛探討符合中國金融不良資產(chǎn)特殊性質和市場狀況的方法體系,并提出了各種類型的評估模式,如運用數(shù)理統(tǒng)計、層次分析來評估金融不良資產(chǎn),比較典型的屬信用評價法、假設清算法、交易案例比較法和專家打分法等評估方法,不同方法代表著不同的評估口徑,且使用起來具有一定的優(yōu)劣勢,一旦運用不當便會導致評估結果的偏離。因此,構建我國金融不良資產(chǎn)評估方法體系,探究每種方法的適用性和局限性,討論其在實踐中的具體運用,顯得尤為重要。因此,本文從銀行不良貸款入手,圍繞銀行不良貸款的價值分析、評估方法和應用三個問題展開研究,在認真對比分析銀行不良貸款各評估方法的基礎上,結合具體案例來說明各種方法的應用,以期提高評估實務中銀行不良貸款評估方法的可操作性。 在基礎理論層次,本文從我國的傳統(tǒng)“一逾兩呆”不良貸款界定方式和五級分類界定方式入手,對不良貸款進行范圍界定和特征分析,并對兩種貸款界定方式的優(yōu)缺點進行介紹；然后,從政府、銀行和企業(yè)三個角度探討銀行不良貸款的歷史成因,并通過對我國銀行不良貸款的特性和不良資產(chǎn)市場的發(fā)育程度的分析,探討適用于我國國情的銀行不良貸款價值類型和價值影響因素。本文指出,由于不良資產(chǎn)形成的歷史原因,我國的銀行不良貸款不具備清晰的法律權屬,且在本質上屬于一種限制性資產(chǎn),評估中存在依據(jù)不足、評估程序不到位、評估方法受限等問題,使得無法直接使用市場價值進行評估。其次,我國金融不良資產(chǎn)的處置方式包括債務重組、債轉股、債權轉讓、委托包銷和證券化等多達十幾種形式,處置方式的多樣性,決定了使用市場價值的困難。另外,我國市場不完整,參與者稀少,不具備有效的價格形成機制,也沒有足夠的時間讓不良資產(chǎn)進行市場展示。因此,評估人員應當以市場價值為基礎,考慮評估目的、待估資產(chǎn)狀態(tài)、評估條件等因素,從在用價值、有限市場價值、投資價值、持續(xù)經(jīng)營價值、殘值和強制變現(xiàn)價值等非市場價值中選擇合適的價值類型對待估不良資產(chǎn)進行評估。在對銀行不良貸款價值影響因素的分析上,主要介紹了企業(yè)規(guī)模、資產(chǎn)質量、運營狀況、所有制差別、行業(yè)狀況、區(qū)域經(jīng)濟狀況和貸款方式等幾種影響因素。其次,本文介紹了美國和其他在不良資產(chǎn)處置方面獲得較大成績的國家的實踐和成功經(jīng)驗,然后對比介紹我國的評估現(xiàn)狀,進而從比較分析中得到對完善我國金融不良資產(chǎn)評估實踐的啟示。接著,本人著重對我國銀行不良貸款的評估技術與方法進行探討和對比分析,對符合我國銀行不良貸款特殊性質和市場情況的四種評估方法進行了應用操作。這四種評估方法分別是假設清算法、信用評價法、交易案例比較法和專家打分法。其中,假設清算法主要適用于不具有持續(xù)經(jīng)營能力但尚有償債意愿和相關財務資料的企業(yè),或者是仍持續(xù)經(jīng)營但凈現(xiàn)金流不穩(wěn)定或很小的企業(yè)；對于雖資不抵債或由于其他原因不能按時還債,但仍有增長潛力和持續(xù)經(jīng)營能力,且能夠取得連續(xù)幾年經(jīng)審計的財務報表的債務企業(yè)來說,信用評價法則是最適合的評估方法；而當無法獲知債務人的財務資料,用假設清算法和信用評價法無法評估,但可以對債權資產(chǎn)進行因素定性分析并具有相似的債權資產(chǎn)交易案例時,可選用交易案例比較法；專家打分法則適用于財務、信貸資料不完備或無法獲取、同時僅靠評估師的能力難以對待估債權進行定量分析,需要借助于專家們的集體判斷才能有效評估的債權。最后,基于目前我國金融不良貸款評估理論欠缺系統(tǒng)性、評估價值與實際交易價格差異較大和定價功能被過分夸大等現(xiàn)狀,特提出了六條完善我國金融不良資產(chǎn)評估的建議。首先,建議政府應從銀行不良貸款的歷史成因中吸取教訓,避免因社會利益而影響銀行的商業(yè)性運作,加大對資產(chǎn)評估行業(yè)健康發(fā)展的政策引導,盡快以法律的形式對不良資產(chǎn)評估體系做出規(guī)范,并大力支持中國資產(chǎn)評估協(xié)會在人才培養(yǎng)、評估體系完善、評估思路創(chuàng)新等方面的工作,以充分發(fā)揮政府在資產(chǎn)評估行業(yè)的作用。其次,建議中國資產(chǎn)評估協(xié)會從以下幾個方面強化行業(yè)建設：(1)注重金融不良資產(chǎn)評估研究的引導工作,總結發(fā)現(xiàn)評估實踐中出現(xiàn)的新問題,并加強對相關評估準則的完善,盡快建立起一套參考性強的評估操作規(guī)則；(2)加強行業(yè)執(zhí)業(yè)質量的監(jiān)管,提高評估人員的專業(yè)勝任能力和職業(yè)道德水平,強化行業(yè)自律管理能力,創(chuàng)造良好的執(zhí)業(yè)環(huán)境；(3)完善人才培養(yǎng)機制；(4)統(tǒng)一計費標準,制定比較合理的收費方法,以激發(fā)評估機構進行評估創(chuàng)新研究的積極性。第三、建議評估機構和資產(chǎn)管理公司加快評估數(shù)據(jù)庫的建立,注重積累銀行不良貸款處置案例,并通過對搜集到的案例的分析構建起合理規(guī)范的評估參數(shù)體系。第四、建議評估機構和評估人員加強對非財務因素的量化,注重非財務指標對待估不良貸款變現(xiàn)價值的影響,進而不斷的補充和完善金融不良資產(chǎn)評估模型。第五,建議政府或資產(chǎn)評估協(xié)會著手建立起一個評估溝通合作平臺,以促進金融不良資產(chǎn)評估行業(yè)的健康發(fā)展,充分發(fā)揮其在資產(chǎn)定價和金融風險防范中的作用。最后,建議評估行業(yè)管理部門引導評估結論使用方正確認識評估結論的局限性,讓其認識到,金融不良資產(chǎn)的交易價格應該通過市場來發(fā)現(xiàn),而不是直接的適用評估價格。 本文的不足和局限主要表現(xiàn)為以下幾個方面： (1)由于國內(nèi)對銀行不良貸款的研究十分匱乏,文獻資料很少,國外最新理論研究成果搜集不充分,致使本文不能全面的借鑒和吸收前輩們的研究成果。 (2)在案例的具體操作中,因資料搜集渠道不暢以及數(shù)據(jù)采集受到限制,致使結論分析不能量化所有影響因素,影響結論的普遍適用性。 (3)在結合定量指標和定性指標的評估體系中,由于個人能力限制,不能對兩者應占權重多少做進一步研究,而是借鑒了前輩們的研究成果,在確定取值范圍時也難免不合理,從而本文研究的深度尚有欠缺；所以設計一個適用于大多數(shù)不良債權的評估方法對未來的不良資產(chǎn)評估至關重要。 (4)銀行不良貸款評估是一項專業(yè)性很強的實踐工作,擬進行的研究在實踐工作中的適用性還須進行實證檢驗,而且因實踐經(jīng)驗的短缺,本人在寫作中深感困惑,分析方法的科學性方面有待改善。 (5)本文是選擇了銀行不良貸款評估基礎理論的幾個方面進行深入,并沒有建立起一個完整的評估框架,后續(xù)研究可以進一步的完善銀行不良貸款評估理論框架。
[Abstract]:Since 1999, China's government has set up four policy Asset Management Co, through several large-scale stripping and the efforts made by the government on the control of non-performing loans in the bank, the problem of non-performing loans in China's banks has been reduced and the rate of non-performing loans has been reduced, but the increment of the bad loan is still not controlled. In the practice of good loan assessment, there is no unified evaluation criteria and technical regulations for the financial non-performing loans. The quality of the assessment depends on the professional level of the assessors. Because of the market economic system in China, the vast majority of the evaluators can not accurately grasp the bank's non-performing loan market. The assessment method inherent in the application of machinery leads directly to the evaluation. In addition, there is a certain degree of value manipulation in the evaluation process of bank non-performing loans, which makes the evaluation out of the actual situation of the market. Therefore, it is not slow to improve the evaluation system of non-performing loans in China. After evaluating the standard of the three kinds of non-performing loans of the cost method, the income law and the market law, it is widely used by the assets evaluation institutions of various countries. But because of the special complexity of the bad loans and the development of the bad assets market, the above three methods are not directly applied to the non-performing loans of our banks. In the evaluation practice, based on the above situation, Chinese scholars have discussed the method system which conforms to the special nature and market situation of Chinese financial non-performing assets, and put forward various types of evaluation models, such as the use of mathematical statistics and analytic hierarchy process to assess the financial assets, the typical credit evaluation method, the assumption of liquidation, and the transaction cases. The different methods, such as comparison method and expert scoring method, represent different caliber and have certain advantages and disadvantages in use. If they are not used properly, the evaluation results will be deviated. Therefore, the evaluation method system of non-performing financial assets in China is constructed, and the applicability and limitations of each method are explored, and the practice is discussed in practice. The concrete use of the bank appears particularly important. Therefore, this paper, starting with the bank's bad loans, focuses on the value analysis of the bank's non-performing loans, the evaluation method and the application of the three problems. On the basis of careful comparison and analysis of the evaluation methods of non-performing loans in the bank, the application of various methods is explained with specific cases, in order to improve the evaluation. The feasibility of the evaluation method of non-performing loans in China's banks.
On the basis of the basic theory, this article starts with the definition and classification of the traditional "more than two" non-performing loans and the five level classification, and introduces the scope and characteristics of the non-performing loans, and introduces the advantages and disadvantages of the two types of loan definition, and then discusses the non-performing loans of the banks from the three angles of the government, the bank and the enterprise. Through the analysis of the characteristics of non-performing loans and the development of non-performing assets in China's banks, this paper discusses the value types and value factors that are applicable to the national conditions of our country. This article points out that, because of the historical reasons of the formation of non-performing assets, the bank non-performing loans in our country do not have clear legal rights. And in essence, it belongs to a kind of restrictive assets. There are some problems in the evaluation, such as insufficient basis, poor evaluation procedure and limited evaluation method, which make it impossible to use the market value directly to evaluate. Secondly, the disposal methods of non-performing financial assets of our country include debt restructuring, debt transfer shares, transfer of creditor's rights, entrusting underwriting and securitisation. In addition, the market is incomplete, the participants are scarce, there is no effective price formation mechanism, and there is not enough time to show the bad assets in the market. Therefore, the evaluators should be based on the market value, consider the purpose of evaluation, and estimate the state of the assets. In the analysis of the factors affecting the value of the bank's non-performing loans, this paper mainly introduces the scale of the enterprise, the quality of the assets, the quality of the assets, and the quality of the assets. The situation, the ownership difference, the industry situation, the regional economic situation and the way of the loan. Secondly, this paper introduces the practice and successful experience of the United States and other countries which have achieved great achievements in the disposal of bad assets, and then contrasts the status of our country, and then improves our country's gold from the comparative analysis. Then, I emphatically discuss and compare the assessment techniques and methods of non-performing loans in China's banks, and carry out the application of the four evaluation methods that conform to the special nature and market situation of our bank's non-performing loans. The four evaluation methods are the hypothesis of liquidation and the credit evaluation method, respectively. Transaction case comparison and expert scoring, which assume that the liquidation law is mainly applicable to enterprises that do not have the ability to continue to operate but still have the willingness to pay and the relevant financial information, or to continue to operate but the net cash flow is unstable or very small. The law of credit evaluation is the most suitable evaluation method for a debt enterprise with long potential and continuous operating capacity and capable of obtaining financial statements that have been audited for several years. And when the financial information of the debtor is not known, it can not be evaluated with the assumption of liquidation and credit evaluation. When there are similar cases in the transaction of creditor's rights and assets, the case comparison method can be used. The expert scoring rule is applicable to the finance, the credit data is incomplete or cannot be obtained. At the same time, the quantitative analysis of the estimated creditor's right is difficult to be treated by the ability of the appraiser, and the creditor's right to be effectively evaluated by the collective judgment of the experts is needed. Finally, based on the eyes In our country, the former evaluation theory of non-performing loans is lack of systematicness, the value of evaluation and the actual price of transaction and the overstate of pricing function are overstated. Six suggestions are put forward to improve the evaluation of non-performing assets in our country. First, the government should draw lessons from the historical causes of the non-performing loans of the bank and avoid the social benefits. It will affect the commercial operation of the bank, strengthen the policy guidance for the healthy development of the asset evaluation industry, standardize the system of non-performing assets assessment in the form of law as soon as possible, and vigorously support the work of the Chinese Asset Appraisal Association in the training of talents, the perfection of the evaluation system, the innovation of the evaluation ideas and so on, so as to give full play to the government's evaluation of the assets. Secondly, it is suggested that the China Association of assets assessment strengthen the construction of the industry from the following aspects: (1) pay attention to the guidance of the research on the assessment of the financial non-performing assets, summarize the new problems in the evaluation of the evaluation practice, and strengthen the improvement of the relevant evaluation criteria, and establish a set of reference and strong evaluation operation rules as soon as possible; (2) Strengthen the supervision of the professional quality of the industry, improve the professional competence and professional ethics of the appraisers, strengthen the self-discipline management ability of the industry, create a good practice environment; (3) improve the training mechanism of talents; (4) unify the accounting standard and make a more reasonable charge method, so as to stimulate the enthusiasm of the evaluation institutions to evaluate the innovation research. Third, recommend evaluation institutions and Asset Management Co to accelerate the establishment of the evaluation database, pay attention to the accumulation of bank non-performing loan disposal cases, and build a reasonable and standardized evaluation parameter system through the analysis of the collected cases. Fourth, recommend evaluation institutions and evaluators to strengthen the quantification of non-financial factors and pay attention to non financial indicators. To evaluate the impact of the value of the undesirable loans, and to continue to supplement and improve the evaluation model of the financial non-performing assets. Fifth, it is suggested that the government or the asset assessment Association set out to establish an evaluation communication platform to promote the healthy development of the non-performing assets evaluation industry and give full play to its asset pricing and financial risk prevention. Finally, it is suggested to assess the limitations of the industry management department to guide the evaluation conclusions to use the positive recognition assessment conclusions to make it realize that the transaction price of the undesirable assets should be found through the market rather than the direct application of the evaluation price.
The shortcomings and limitations of this paper are mainly manifested in the following aspects:
(1) because of the lack of research on non-performing loans to banks in China, few documents and insufficient collection of the latest theoretical research results in foreign countries, this paper can not fully draw on and absorb the achievements of the predecessors.
(2) in the specific operation of the case, because the data collection channel is not smooth and the data collection is restricted, the conclusion analysis can not quantify all the influencing factors and affect the universal applicability of the conclusion.
(3) in the evaluation system which combines quantitative and qualitative indicators, because of the limitation of individual ability, we can not do further research on the weight of the two, but draw lessons from the research results of the predecessors. The evaluation method of good creditor's rights is very important for future non-performing assets evaluation.
(4) the evaluation of non-performing loans in the bank is a very professional practice. The applicability of the research in practice must be tested empirically, and because of the shortage of practical experience, I am deeply confused in writing, and the scientific aspects of the analytical method need to be improved.
(5) this paper has selected several aspects of the basic theory of bank non-performing loan assessment, and did not establish a complete framework for evaluation, and further research can further improve the theoretical framework of bank non-performing loan assessment.

【學位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.4

【參考文獻】

相關期刊論文 前5條

1 李曉彥;;優(yōu)化交易案例比較法在金融不良資產(chǎn)評估中的應用研究[J];企業(yè)導報;2011年11期

2 孫國珍;談假設清算法在不良資產(chǎn)評估中的應用[J];濟南金融;2003年06期

3 汪柏林;;采用德爾菲法評估金融不良資產(chǎn)時的收斂性檢驗[J];中國資產(chǎn)評估;2006年07期

4 吳春林;;采用專家打分法對債權價值進行分析的探討[J];中國資產(chǎn)評估;2007年11期

5 張曉松;;金融不良債權估值問題探討[J];中國資產(chǎn)評估;2010年01期

相關博士學位論文 前1條

1 肖齡;不良貸款價值評估理論研究[D];西南財經(jīng)大學;2008年

，

本文編號：1884662