本文關(guān)鍵詞： 人民幣匯率 匯率預(yù)期 中美貿(mào)易失衡　出處：《對外經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學》2014年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：自2005年人民幣匯率制度改革以來,人民幣累計升值幅度已經(jīng)高達近35%,回顧近8年的匯改進程,人民幣匯率制度改革采取了漸進式改革模式,人民幣匯率形成了持續(xù)地小幅單邊升值并長期伴隨升值預(yù)期的特征,漸進模式的缺陷是升值預(yù)期的持續(xù)存在,升值預(yù)期的長期存在會使升值不斷自我強化,形成升值慣性。在我國目前經(jīng)濟下行條件下,人民幣快速升值和持續(xù)升值預(yù)期對經(jīng)濟的影響更應(yīng)當引起學者們的關(guān)注,所以對人民幣匯率及匯率預(yù)期的相關(guān)研究更顯迫切。在匯率大幅升值的背景下,中美貿(mào)易失衡卻沒有明顯改善,反而出現(xiàn)了失衡程度加劇的局面,這一現(xiàn)實與傳統(tǒng)的一些理論似乎相去甚遠,更與美國壓迫人民幣升值的初衷大相徑庭。所以本文希望從升值預(yù)期的全新角度來分析人民幣升值背景下的“中美貿(mào)易收支之謎”。本文圍繞在匯率預(yù)期這一全新視角展開研究,首先研究匯率預(yù)期的性質(zhì)和影響因素,然后重點分析匯率預(yù)期通過馬歇爾-勒納條件、實際匯率、跨期消費、虛假貿(mào)易和貨幣供給對中美貿(mào)易收支的影響,主要研究匯率預(yù)期視角下的中美貿(mào)易失衡,并得到一些新的發(fā)現(xiàn)。人民幣匯率預(yù)期符合適應(yīng)性預(yù)期的特點,通過計量分析發(fā)現(xiàn)代表升值壓力的匯率和外匯儲備兩個變量對匯率預(yù)期的影響非常顯著,而通過量化國外的政治壓力再進行計量檢驗后發(fā)現(xiàn),國外政治壓力對人民幣升值預(yù)期影響也比較大,化解國外的政治壓力是消除升值預(yù)期的重要手段。將匯率預(yù)期因素加入馬歇爾-勒納條件進行理論和計量分析后發(fā)現(xiàn),匯率預(yù)期通過兩方面來影響貿(mào)易余額情況的變化,首先是匯率預(yù)期抑制匯率對貿(mào)易收支的調(diào)節(jié)作用,其次匯率預(yù)期變化直接影響進口和出口,使貨幣升值不但不減少順差,還可能會使順差繼續(xù)擴大。將匯率預(yù)期加入巴拉薩-薩繆爾森效應(yīng)理論,推導(dǎo)出實際匯率的影響因素主要是匯率預(yù)期偏差,而最終影響貿(mào)易余額變化的是預(yù)期偏差、國內(nèi)外收入變化。從匯率預(yù)期通過跨期消費影響貿(mào)易收支的理論分析推導(dǎo)出匯率預(yù)期與貿(mào)易收支成負相關(guān)的結(jié)論。匯率預(yù)期和利差因素吸引了大量套利資本以虛假貿(mào)易的形式進入我國,大幅增加了我國對美國的貿(mào)易順差。根據(jù)SVAR的計量結(jié)果分析,人民幣升值預(yù)期通過貨幣供給會影響資產(chǎn)價格和通貨膨脹,對中美貿(mào)易收支產(chǎn)生財富效應(yīng)和價格效應(yīng)。通過匯率預(yù)期的相關(guān)研究,可以更好的解釋匯率對貿(mào)易收支的影響,更好的解釋中美貿(mào)易失衡問題。政策上,應(yīng)通過管理人民幣升值預(yù)期,調(diào)節(jié)中美貿(mào)易失衡;通過引導(dǎo)匯率預(yù)期,更好的制定匯率政策
[Abstract]:Since the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime in 2005, the cumulative appreciation of the RMB has reached nearly 35 percent. Looking back at the past eight years of exchange rate reform, the RMB exchange rate system reform has adopted a gradual reform model. The RMB exchange rate has formed the characteristics of continuous small unilateral appreciation and long-term expectation of appreciation. The defect of the gradual model is the persistence of the expectation of appreciation, and the long-term existence of the expectation of appreciation will make the appreciation constantly strengthen itself. Under the current downward economic conditions in our country, the impact of the rapid appreciation of the RMB and the expectation of sustained appreciation on the economy should be paid more attention to by scholars. Therefore, it is even more urgent to study the RMB exchange rate and its expectations. Against the background of the substantial appreciation of the exchange rate, the Sino-US trade imbalance has not obviously improved, but on the contrary, there has been a situation in which the imbalance degree has intensified. This reality seems to be very different from some of the traditional theories. Therefore, this paper hopes to analyze the "mystery of Sino-US trade balance under the background of RMB appreciation" from the perspective of appreciation expectation. This paper first studies the nature and influencing factors of exchange rate expectation, and then analyzes the impact of exchange rate expectation on Sino-US trade balance through Marshall-Lerner terms, real exchange rate, intertemporal consumption, false trade and money supply. This paper mainly studies the trade imbalance between China and the United States from the perspective of exchange rate expectation, and obtains some new findings. The expectation of RMB exchange rate accords with the characteristics of adaptive expectation. Through the econometric analysis, it is found that the exchange rate and foreign exchange reserve, which represent the appreciation pressure, have a significant effect on the exchange rate expectation, but after quantifying the foreign political pressure, we find that the exchange rate and the foreign exchange reserve have great influence on the exchange rate expectation. The influence of foreign political pressure on the expectation of RMB appreciation is also relatively large, and the solution of foreign political pressure is an important means to eliminate the expectation of appreciation. After theoretical and quantitative analysis, it is found that the expected factors of exchange rate are added to the Marshall-Lerner condition for theoretical and econometric analysis. Exchange rate expectation affects the change of trade balance through two aspects: first, exchange rate expectation inhibits the adjustment effect of exchange rate on trade balance; secondly, exchange rate expectation changes directly affect imports and exports, so that currency appreciation does not reduce surplus. It is also possible that the surplus will continue to expand. By adding the exchange rate expectation to the Balassa-Samuelson effect theory, it is deduced that the main influencing factor of the real exchange rate is the expected deviation of the exchange rate, and the final influence on the change of the trade balance is the expected deviation. From the theoretical analysis of the effect of exchange rate expectation on trade income and expenditure through intertemporal consumption, the conclusion that exchange rate expectation is negatively correlated with trade balance is deduced. Exchange rate expectation and spread factor attract a large amount of arbitrage capital. The form of fake trade entered our country, This has greatly increased China's trade surplus with the United States. According to the results of the SVAR measurement, RMB appreciation is expected to affect asset prices and inflation through money supply. Wealth effect and price effect on Sino-US trade balance. Through relevant studies on exchange rate expectations, we can better explain the impact of exchange rate on trade balance, and better explain the trade imbalance between China and the United States. We should regulate the trade imbalance between China and the United States by managing the expectation of RMB appreciation, and better formulate exchange rate policy by guiding the expectation of exchange rate.
【學位授予單位】：對外經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.6;F752.7

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