【摘要】：核電是一種清潔的能源，相比于火電，核電具有環(huán)保、高效等特點(diǎn)。我們國(guó)家應(yīng)當(dāng)大力發(fā)展核電，來(lái)緩解我們國(guó)家能源短缺的壓力。核電站利用鈾燃料來(lái)進(jìn)行發(fā)電,但是我國(guó)的鈾礦儲(chǔ)量并不是很豐富，只依賴國(guó)內(nèi)開(kāi)采的鈾資源很難滿足核電快速發(fā)展的需要。我們面臨的問(wèn)題，就是如何解決鈾資源供不應(yīng)求。通過(guò)海外投資鈾礦是一種比較好的解決方法。海外尋找鈾礦將成為我國(guó)核電企業(yè)的迫切需要解決的任務(wù)，海外鈾資源投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)是核電企業(yè)投資海外項(xiàng)目前提條件。 海外鈾資源投資開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目往往具有投資額大、開(kāi)發(fā)周期長(zhǎng)、各種不可預(yù)計(jì)的因素存在等特征，對(duì)投資決策帶來(lái)不確定的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。因此對(duì)投資開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)顯得尤其重要。設(shè)計(jì)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)調(diào)查問(wèn)卷并向中核集團(tuán)和中廣核集團(tuán)發(fā)放問(wèn)卷。對(duì)調(diào)查問(wèn)卷的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)分析，通過(guò)因子分析方法對(duì)海外鈾資源開(kāi)發(fā)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)變量進(jìn)行篩選，，并構(gòu)建海外鈾資源開(kāi)發(fā)投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。本文引入模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法對(duì)海外鈾資源開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析和評(píng)價(jià)。利用熵權(quán)法對(duì)海外鈾資源投資開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素進(jìn)行分析和排序，并對(duì)投資開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目的關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險(xiǎn)變量產(chǎn)生風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的原因進(jìn)行分析,通過(guò)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析來(lái)了解項(xiàng)目面臨的最大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和最小風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，從而達(dá)到規(guī)避和控制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。通過(guò)中核集團(tuán)在非洲國(guó)家尼日爾的鈾礦投資項(xiàng)目來(lái)進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析和評(píng)價(jià)，來(lái)驗(yàn)證和修正我們所建立的評(píng)估模型。根據(jù)分析評(píng)價(jià)所得到的結(jié)果為海外鈾資源投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理提出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制對(duì)策建議，為投資業(yè)主在進(jìn)行投資決策時(shí)提供積極的參考意見(jiàn)。
[Abstract]:Nuclear power is a clean energy, compared with thermal power, nuclear power has the characteristics of environmental protection and high efficiency. Our country should vigorously develop nuclear power to alleviate the pressure of energy shortage in our country. Nuclear power plants use uranium fuel to generate electricity, but the uranium reserves in China are not very rich. It is difficult to meet the needs of rapid development of nuclear power only by relying on domestic uranium resources. The problem we face is how to solve the shortage of uranium resources. It is a good solution to invest uranium ore abroad. Looking for uranium ore overseas will become an urgent task for nuclear power enterprises in China. Risk assessment of overseas uranium resources investment is a prerequisite for nuclear power enterprises to invest in overseas projects. Overseas uranium resources investment and development projects often have the characteristics of large investment, long development period and various unpredictable factors, which bring uncertain risk to investment decision. Therefore, the risk evaluation of investment and development projects is particularly important. Design investment risk questionnaire and distribute the questionnaire to CNPC and CGN. The questionnaire data were statistically analyzed and the risk variables of overseas uranium resources development investment were screened by factor analysis method, and the risk evaluation index system of overseas uranium resources development investment was constructed. In this paper, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is introduced to analyze and evaluate the investment risk of overseas uranium resources development projects. The risk factors of overseas uranium resources investment and development project are analyzed and sorted by entropy weight method, and the causes of the risk caused by the key risk variables of the investment and development project are analyzed. Through risk analysis to understand the maximum and minimum risks faced by the project, so as to avoid and control the risks. The risk analysis and evaluation are carried out through the investment project of China Nuclear Power Group in the African country Niger to verify and revise our evaluation model. According to the results of the analysis and evaluation, the risk control countermeasures for overseas uranium resources investment risk management are put forward, and the positive reference suggestions are provided for investment owners when making investment decisions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F426.23;F272.3

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