【摘要】：近年來(lái),伴隨著我國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)的不斷擴(kuò)大和深化以及我國(guó)市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的進(jìn)一步發(fā)展,上市公司在市場(chǎng)上也面臨著激烈的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)以致優(yōu)勝劣汰,相關(guān)政策措施也對(duì)上市公司退市和破產(chǎn)機(jī)制進(jìn)行了明確清晰的界定和規(guī)劃,因此,上市公司的財(cái)務(wù)管理和預(yù)警越來(lái)越受到廣泛的關(guān)注。上市公司的財(cái)務(wù)狀況往往反映了該公司管理運(yùn)營(yíng)的效率,其對(duì)公司的各個(gè)層面都能產(chǎn)生積極或者正面的影響,如果上市公司的財(cái)務(wù)狀況出現(xiàn)持續(xù)性非逆轉(zhuǎn)的惡化,那么就可以認(rèn)定該上市公司陷入了財(cái)務(wù)困境,一旦公司陷入財(cái)務(wù)困境,就會(huì)對(duì)整個(gè)社會(huì)資源造成浪費(fèi),牽扯到整個(gè)行業(yè)發(fā)展的穩(wěn)定性,因此,在現(xiàn)階段,我國(guó)金融體系和社會(huì)信用體制均很不完善,對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)困境預(yù)警的研究就顯得尤為必要且具有相當(dāng)?shù)默F(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 我國(guó)的房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)經(jīng)過(guò)十幾年的市場(chǎng)化發(fā)展,已經(jīng)形成了規(guī)�；姆康禺a(chǎn)上市公司,而房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)本身又具有周期長(zhǎng)、高投資、高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、關(guān)聯(lián)性強(qiáng)等諸多特點(diǎn),該行業(yè)的運(yùn)營(yíng)牽涉到國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的健康發(fā)展,其本身就是輿論關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn),特別是近年來(lái)對(duì)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的宏觀和微觀的調(diào)控,使得該行業(yè)的上市公司隱含著相應(yīng)的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),對(duì)這些財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的正確預(yù)警和解決將關(guān)系到該行業(yè)和國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)能否健康穩(wěn)定的發(fā)展。 本文回顧了國(guó)內(nèi)外有關(guān)財(cái)務(wù)困境預(yù)警的研究,通過(guò)合理分析房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的特點(diǎn)來(lái)挖掘房地產(chǎn)上市公司的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)來(lái)源,從而通過(guò)選擇我國(guó)上市房地產(chǎn)公司作為樣本來(lái)構(gòu)建符合該行業(yè)特征的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,根據(jù)樣本數(shù)據(jù),我們通過(guò)Mann-Whitney U非參數(shù)檢驗(yàn)和Pearson相關(guān)性檢驗(yàn)對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行預(yù)處理,并將預(yù)處理后的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,考慮到動(dòng)態(tài)性原則,我們采用了生存分析中的Cox模型來(lái)擬合多個(gè)時(shí)間段的樣本數(shù)據(jù),這樣可以防止單期模型所不能反映公司財(cái)務(wù)狀況的趨勢(shì)性信息的劣勢(shì)。經(jīng)過(guò)合理分析發(fā)現(xiàn),資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率、流動(dòng)比率、已獲利息倍數(shù)、總資產(chǎn)增長(zhǎng)率、總資產(chǎn)凈利率(ROA)、銷(xiāo)售凈利率這六個(gè)指標(biāo)能夠?qū)ξ覈?guó)上市房地產(chǎn)公司陷入財(cái)務(wù)困境做出較好的預(yù)警,進(jìn)而對(duì)這些指標(biāo)的現(xiàn)實(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)意義做出合理解釋,并提出相應(yīng)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the continuous expansion and deepening of China's capital market and the further development of China's market economy, listed companies are also facing fierce competition in the market to survive the fittest. Relevant policies and measures have also clearly defined and planned the delisting and bankruptcy mechanism of listed companies. Therefore, the financial management and early warning of listed companies have received more and more extensive attention. The financial situation of the listed company often reflects the efficiency of the management and operation of the company, which can have a positive or positive impact on all levels of the company. If the financial situation of the listed company has a continuous and irreversible deterioration, then it can be concluded that the listed company is in financial distress. Once the company is in financial distress, it will waste the entire social resources and involve the stability of the development of the whole industry. Therefore, at this stage, China's financial system and social credit system are not perfect, the study of financial distress early warning is particularly necessary and has considerable practical significance. After more than ten years of marketization development, the real estate industry in our country has formed a large-scale real estate listed company, and the real estate industry itself has many characteristics, such as long cycle, high investment, high risk, strong correlation and so on. The operation of this industry involves the healthy development of the national economy, and it itself is the focus of public opinion, especially the macro and micro regulation and control of the real estate industry in recent years. So that the listed companies in this industry imply the corresponding financial risks, the correct early warning and solution of these financial risks will be related to the healthy and stable development of the industry and the national economy. This paper reviews the research on early warning of financial distress at home and abroad, excavates the risk source of real estate listed companies through reasonable analysis of the characteristics of the real estate industry, and then constructs the financial risk early warning evaluation index system in accordance with the characteristics of the industry by selecting the listed real estate companies in China as a sample. According to the sample data, We preprocess the financial index data through Mann-Whitney U nonparametric test and Pearson correlation test, and analyze the preprocessed data empirically. Considering the dynamic principle, we use the Cox model in survival analysis to fit the sample data of multiple time periods, which can prevent the disadvantage that the single-phase model can not reflect the trend information of the company's financial situation. Through reasonable analysis, it is found that the six indexes of asset-liability ratio, current ratio, interest multiple, total asset growth rate and total net asset interest rate (ROA), sales net interest rate can make a good early warning to the financial distress of listed real estate companies in China, and then make a reasonable explanation of the practical economic significance of these indicators, and put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F299.233.42

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本文編號(hào)：2510894