本文選題：人民幣匯率預期 + 房地產價格　； 參考：《軟科學》2017年12期

【摘要】：通過構建時間序列(2005.7~2016.12)的STR模型,本文驗證了人民幣匯率預期對我國房地產價格的非線性效應。研究結果顯示:漸進穩(wěn)步的升值預期(2005.7~2014.12)通過資本流動效應促進了我國房地產價格的上漲;而大幅度的升值預期將促使房價急劇上漲以及資產泡沫化。由于央行外匯市場干預以及寬松貨幣信貸政策導致大量流動性進入房地產市場,近年大幅貶值預期(2015.1~2016.12)加劇了我國房地產價格的不斷攀升。貨幣供應量較人民幣匯率預期對房價的影響系數更大,表明2005年匯率改革以來我國總體相對寬松的貨幣政策是房價上漲以及資產泡沫化的主要原因。政策建議為,進一步完善人民幣匯率市場化形成機制,積極引導和穩(wěn)定人民幣匯率預期,減弱國際市場對人民幣匯率大幅升值或大幅貶值的預期;央行應保持貨幣政策穩(wěn)健中性,在保持流動性合理充裕的同時,注重抑制資產泡沫和防范經濟金融風險。
[Abstract]:By constructing the STR model of time series, this paper verifies the nonlinear effect of RMB exchange rate expectation on real estate prices in China. The results show that the gradual and steady appreciation expectation can promote the rise of real estate prices through the effect of capital flow, while the large appreciation expectation will promote the sharp rise of house prices and the bubble of assets. As the central bank's intervention in the foreign exchange market and easy monetary and credit policies led to a large amount of liquidity entering the real estate market, the expectation of a sharp depreciation in recent years has exacerbated the rising real estate prices in China. The influence coefficient of money supply on house price is greater than the RMB exchange rate expectation, which indicates that the relatively loose monetary policy since the exchange rate reform in 2005 is the main reason for the rise of house price and the bubble of assets. The policy suggestions are to further improve the marketization mechanism of RMB exchange rate, actively guide and stabilize the expectation of RMB exchange rate, and weaken the expectation that the international market will greatly appreciate or devalue the RMB exchange rate; The central bank should keep the monetary policy steady and neutral, while keeping the liquidity reasonably abundant, pay attention to restrain the asset bubble and guard against the economic and financial risk.
【作者單位】： 武漢大學經濟與管理學院;
【基金】：國家自然科學基金國際合作研究項目(71661137003) 國家社會科學基金一般項目(14BJY187) 教育部哲學社會科學研究重大課題攻關項目(15JZD013)
【分類號】：F299.23;F832.6
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本文編號：1958425