本文選題：資產(chǎn)價格波動 + 通貨膨脹��； 參考：《首都經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：資產(chǎn)價格波動對宏觀經(jīng)濟影響的程度日益增加，同時，資產(chǎn)價格的過度波動對以實物價格穩(wěn)定為目標的貨幣政策提出了挑戰(zhàn)。因此，分析資產(chǎn)價格波動對通貨膨脹的影響，，可以為制定有效的貨幣政策提供依據(jù)�；诖吮疚膶Y產(chǎn)價格影響通貨膨脹的傳導機制進行研究，通過對國內(nèi)外研究成果的整理發(fā)現(xiàn)，目前普遍認為資產(chǎn)價格波動主要是通過需求渠道對通貨膨脹產(chǎn)生影響，即資產(chǎn)價格波動對消費和投資產(chǎn)生影響，進而影響總需求，通過需求拉動引發(fā)通貨膨脹。這一影響的主要傳導渠道是財富效應，托賓Q效應，預期效應和信貸渠道等。對于上述渠道在中國是否能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)存在一定的爭論，而且鮮有學者從通貨膨脹成因入手進行分析。因此，本文首先分析了通貨膨脹形成的根本原因，認為需求拉動是影響通貨膨脹的根本原因，資產(chǎn)價格主要是通過各種渠道影響總需求，進而對通貨膨脹產(chǎn)生影響，基于此本文建立資產(chǎn)價格影響通貨膨脹的理論分析框架。之后根據(jù)這一理論分析框架，采取協(xié)整關系分析，格蘭杰因果分析，VAR模型等方法進行實證分析，發(fā)現(xiàn)從長期看，房地產(chǎn)價格和股票價格與消費和投資存在協(xié)整關系，并且資產(chǎn)價格對通貨膨脹具有一定的指示作用，這說明資產(chǎn)價格波動可以引起總需求的變化，進而對通貨膨脹產(chǎn)生影響。最后根據(jù)中國的具體情況提出相應的政策建議。
[Abstract]:The impact of asset price fluctuation on macroeconomic is increasing day by day. At the same time, the excessive volatility of asset price challenges the monetary policy aiming at the stability of real price. Therefore, analyzing the effect of asset price fluctuation on inflation can provide basis for effective monetary policy. Based on this, this paper studies the transmission mechanism of asset price influencing inflation, and finds out through the collation of domestic and foreign research results, it is generally believed that asset price fluctuations mainly affect inflation through demand channels. That is, the fluctuation of asset price affects consumption and investment, and then affects aggregate demand, which leads to inflation through demand. The main transmission channels of this influence are wealth effect, Tobin Q effect, expectation effect and credit channel. There is some debate about whether these channels can be realized in China, and few scholars analyze the causes of inflation. Therefore, this paper first analyzes the root cause of the formation of inflation, thinks that demand-pull is the fundamental reason that affects inflation, asset prices mainly influence aggregate demand through various channels, and then influence inflation. Based on this, a theoretical analysis framework of asset price influencing inflation is established. Then according to this theoretical analysis framework, using cointegration analysis, Granger causality analysis and VAR model, it is found that real estate price and stock price have cointegration relationship with consumption and investment in the long run. And the asset price has a certain indicative effect on inflation, which shows that the fluctuation of asset price can cause the change of aggregate demand, and then affect the inflation. Finally, according to the specific situation of China put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.
【學位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F832.51;F822.5

【引證文獻】

相關碩士學位論文 前1條

1 周虎;中國股票價格波動對通貨膨脹的影響研究[D];首都經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學;2016年

本文編號：1891943