本文選題：財務(wù)評價 + 評價體系　； 參考：《華南理工大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：本文研究的PZBG項(xiàng)目是一個集酒店、公寓、寫字樓及商場的綜合體項(xiàng)目。眾所周知，商業(yè)地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目投資大、建設(shè)期長、市場風(fēng)險大、施工工藝復(fù)雜等特性，決定了其具有較高的投資風(fēng)險，，因此對項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行可行性研究及論證以降低項(xiàng)目投資風(fēng)險是關(guān)鍵。經(jīng)濟(jì)評價與投資風(fēng)險分析是對擬建設(shè)項(xiàng)目從財務(wù)評價及風(fēng)險分析兩方面進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)研究，通過對凈現(xiàn)值、投資回收期及內(nèi)部投資收益率等經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)的計算與分析，對擬建項(xiàng)目的經(jīng)濟(jì)效果進(jìn)行科學(xué)全面的評價，為項(xiàng)目投資決策提供重要依據(jù)；通過對不確定因素影響因素及影響程度的分析，達(dá)到規(guī)避與控制項(xiàng)目投資風(fēng)險的作用，因此，項(xiàng)目經(jīng)濟(jì)評價與投資風(fēng)險分析是項(xiàng)目投資建設(shè)前不可或缺的重要研究內(nèi)容。 目前項(xiàng)目經(jīng)濟(jì)評價主要集中在工業(yè)生產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目與房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項(xiàng)目，對商業(yè)綜合體項(xiàng)目綜合經(jīng)濟(jì)評價研究的分析相對較少，大多只是對全銷售進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)評價，缺乏商業(yè)地產(chǎn)銷售結(jié)合持有酒店物業(yè)進(jìn)行分析的經(jīng)濟(jì)評價范本。本文就這一問題以琶洲PZBG商業(yè)綜合體項(xiàng)目為案例研究，對PZBG項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行科學(xué)規(guī)劃，基于項(xiàng)目實(shí)際情況，一是運(yùn)用PESTEL分析方法對PZBG項(xiàng)目環(huán)境與市場進(jìn)行分析，明確項(xiàng)目建設(shè)規(guī)劃；二是運(yùn)用財務(wù)評價的分析理論與方法，對PZBG項(xiàng)目銷售及持有物業(yè)的模式進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)評價，分析項(xiàng)目凈現(xiàn)值、投資回收期及內(nèi)部收益率等評價指標(biāo)，綜合評估PZBG項(xiàng)目盈利能力及償債能力；三是對PZBG項(xiàng)目作了盈虧平衡分析、敏感性分析及概率分析，分析不確定因素對PZBG項(xiàng)目的影響程度、發(fā)生概率及項(xiàng)目對風(fēng)險的承受能力。確定項(xiàng)目的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益與抗風(fēng)險能力，形成了銷售及持有酒店物業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)評價研究的分析范本，是目前單純以銷售為主要研究對象的經(jīng)濟(jì)評價分析的功能延伸，增強(qiáng)了研究的綜合性與適用性，對后續(xù)同類產(chǎn)品的經(jīng)濟(jì)評價研究具有理論與實(shí)踐的借鑒意義。
[Abstract]:The PZBG project studied in this paper is a complex of hotels, apartments, office buildings and shopping malls. As we all know, commercial real estate projects have the characteristics of large investment, long construction period, large market risk, complex construction technology and so on, which determines that commercial real estate projects have high investment risk. So it is the key to study and prove the feasibility of the project in order to reduce the investment risk of the project. Economic evaluation and investment risk analysis is a systematic study on the financial evaluation and risk analysis of the proposed construction project, and the calculation and analysis of economic indicators such as net present value, investment recovery period and internal investment return rate, etc. The economic effect of the proposed project is evaluated scientifically and comprehensively, which provides an important basis for the investment decision of the project. Through the analysis of the influencing factors and the degree of influence of the uncertain factors, the function of avoiding and controlling the investment risk of the project is achieved. Project economic evaluation and investment risk analysis are indispensable research contents before project investment construction. At present, the economic evaluation of projects is mainly focused on industrial production projects and real estate development projects. The analysis of comprehensive economic evaluation of commercial complex projects is relatively few, and most of them are just economic evaluation of total sales. Lack of commercial real estate sales combined with hotel property analysis of the economic evaluation model. This paper takes Pazhou PZBG commercial complex project as a case study, carries on the scientific plan to the PZBG project, based on the project actual situation, first is uses the PESTEL analysis method to carry on the analysis to the PZBG project environment and the market, definite project construction plan; The second is to use the theory and method of financial evaluation to evaluate the model of selling and holding property in PZBG project, analyze the net present value of the project, the payback period of investment and the internal rate of return, etc. The profitability and solvency of the PZBG project are comprehensively evaluated. Thirdly, the break-even analysis, sensitivity analysis and probability analysis of the PZBG project are made to analyze the influence of uncertain factors on the PZBG project, the probability of occurrence and the ability of the project to bear the risk. The determination of the economic benefits and the ability to resist risks of the project has formed an analytical model for the study of economic evaluation of sales and holding hotel properties, and is an extension of the function of economic evaluation and analysis of which sales is the main research object at present. It can be used for reference in theory and practice for the economic evaluation of similar products.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：TU71;F299.23

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