【摘要】：我國的人口老齡化已是不爭的事實(shí)，并且我國的人口老齡化特點(diǎn)是具有普遍性、嚴(yán)重性和特殊性的。人口的不斷老齡化勢必增加醫(yī)療費(fèi)用，因此，人口老齡化與醫(yī)療體制改革之間關(guān)系的研究迫在眉睫�？疾炷挲g結(jié)構(gòu)的變化與醫(yī)療體制改革之間的關(guān)系是一種更深層次的研究，它會(huì)使我們能夠更準(zhǔn)確的把握人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)和醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)制度的關(guān)系。探討二者之間的關(guān)系對于完善我國醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)制度具有非常重要的意義，在制定相關(guān)政策時(shí)，必須要考慮到我國人口老齡化的客觀事實(shí)。只有這樣，才能實(shí)現(xiàn)我國社會(huì)的全面、協(xié)調(diào)、可持續(xù)發(fā)展，才能創(chuàng)建穩(wěn)定、和諧的社會(huì)。 本文主要分四部分：第一部分包括第一章和第二章，，主要分析本文的研究背景、國內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)綜述以及我國目前人口老齡化的結(jié)構(gòu)特點(diǎn)和形成原因；第二部分包括第三章，首先簡單介紹我國的醫(yī)療保障制度發(fā)展的歷程，取得的效果和存在的不足，然后通過數(shù)據(jù)分析，運(yùn)用協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)的方法研究人口老齡化與醫(yī)療保障制度之間存在的內(nèi)在關(guān)系，并得出一定的結(jié)論；第三部分包括第四章，主要借鑒西方主要發(fā)達(dá)國家醫(yī)療保障制度改革過程的經(jīng)驗(yàn)，為我國的醫(yī)療保障制度改革提供借鑒，第四部分為第五章和第六章，提出政策建議，并展望我國未來的醫(yī)療保障制度。 本文研究的主要成果包括：第一，經(jīng)ADF單位根檢驗(yàn)，我國的人均GDP、老年人口比例和人均醫(yī)療費(fèi)用支出均為非平穩(wěn)變量，且單整的階都是1；第二，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長（人均GDP）、人口老齡化（65歲以上老年人口所占的比例）與我國醫(yī)療費(fèi)用增長（人均醫(yī)療支出）之間存在協(xié)整關(guān)系(即長期均衡關(guān)系)。我國醫(yī)療支出的收入彈性為0.67242，小于1，表明我國的醫(yī)療保健是必需品。而老年人口比例的產(chǎn)出彈性為2.54298，相對于經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長，人口老齡化對我國醫(yī)療費(fèi)用的增長影響更大，因此，我國的醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)制度改革過程中應(yīng)充分考慮人口老齡化的因素，避免不必要的改制成本。 本文最后綜合本研究的觀點(diǎn)和論述，形成了結(jié)論。認(rèn)為我國的醫(yī)療保障制度必須得到進(jìn)一步的發(fā)展與完善，并提出了相應(yīng)的對策建議，相信在全社會(huì)的共同努力下，我國的社會(huì)保障事業(yè)一定能滿足社會(huì)各個(gè)階層的需要，建立符合我國國情的社會(huì)保障制度。
[Abstract]:The aging of population in China is an indisputable fact, and the characteristics of population aging in China are universal, serious and special. The aging of population is bound to increase the medical cost, so it is urgent to study the relationship between the aging of population and the reform of medical system. It is a deeper study to investigate the relationship between the change of age structure and the reform of medical system. It will enable us to grasp the relationship between the change of age structure of population and the medical insurance system more accurately. It is very important to probe into the relationship between them for perfecting the medical insurance system of our country. When making relevant policies, we must take into account the objective facts of aging population in our country. Only in this way can we realize the comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development of our society and create a stable and harmonious society. This paper is divided into four parts: the first part includes the first chapter and the second chapter, mainly analyzes the research background, the domestic and foreign literature review as well as the present population aging structure characteristic and the formation reason of our country; The second part includes the third chapter. Firstly, it briefly introduces the course of the development of the medical security system in our country, the results obtained and the shortcomings, and then through the data analysis, The cointegration test is used to study the internal relationship between the aging population and the medical security system, and a certain conclusion is drawn. The third part includes the fourth chapter, which mainly draws lessons from the experience of the western major developed countries in the reform process of the medical security system, and provides reference for the reform of the medical security system of our country. The fourth part is the fifth and sixth chapters, and puts forward the policy recommendations. And look forward to our future medical security system. The main results of this study are as follows: first, by ADF unit root test, the ratio of per capita GDP, elderly population and medical expenditure per capita in China are both non-stationary variables, and the order of single integration is 1; Secondly, there is a cointegration relationship between the economic growth (the proportion of aging population over 65 years of age) and the increase of medical cost (medical expenditure per capita) (that is, long-term equilibrium relationship) between economic growth (per capita GDP), population aging) and China's medical expenditure growth (per capita medical expenditure). The income elasticity of medical expenditure in China is 0.67242, less than 1, which indicates that medical care is a necessity in our country. The output elasticity of the proportion of the elderly population is 2.54298. Compared with the economic growth, the aging of the population has a greater impact on the increase of medical expenses in China. Therefore, the factors of population aging should be fully taken into account in the process of the reform of the medical insurance system in China. Avoid unnecessary restructuring costs. At the end of this paper, a conclusion is reached by synthesizing the viewpoints and exposition of this study. It is believed that the medical security system of our country must be further developed and perfected, and the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. It is believed that with the joint efforts of the whole society, the social security undertaking of our country will certainly meet the needs of all social strata. To establish a social security system in line with China's national conditions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F842.684

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