【摘要】：隨著我國農(nóng)村人口老齡化程度的加強(qiáng)、城市化進(jìn)程的不斷加快以及農(nóng)村傳統(tǒng)家庭養(yǎng)老功能逐步弱化,農(nóng)村老齡居民的生活得不到基本保障,2009年我國國務(wù)院出臺新農(nóng)保制度,建立農(nóng)村社會養(yǎng)老保險制度,以應(yīng)對人口老齡化危機(jī)。論文總結(jié)前人的研究,為了探討新農(nóng)保政策實施的可持續(xù)性和保障效果,提出了貢獻(xiàn)率的概念,通過養(yǎng)老金的給付總水平和基本消費支出之間的比例關(guān)系衡量新農(nóng)保政策是否達(dá)到了保障農(nóng)民生活的目的,為政策可行性和可緩步推進(jìn)性提供事實的依據(jù),也為降低中央財政壓力提供數(shù)據(jù)參考。 論文首先構(gòu)建了新農(nóng)保的貢獻(xiàn)率模型,在這部分中,一方面構(gòu)建了新農(nóng)保養(yǎng)老金給付水平的精算模型,包括推導(dǎo)出個人賬戶每年繳納的養(yǎng)老金的積累總額模型,修正了計發(fā)系數(shù)以及建立了基礎(chǔ)養(yǎng)老金調(diào)整機(jī)制,并對其中的幾個重要參數(shù)進(jìn)行了設(shè)置。另一方面,建立了農(nóng)村養(yǎng)老金需求水平模型,農(nóng)村老年居民的基本生活消費支出構(gòu)成了對養(yǎng)老金的需求,運用ELES模型推導(dǎo)出基本消費水平的計算公式,并建立多元線性回歸模型對老年居民的基本消費支出進(jìn)行預(yù)測。 隨后,對我國新農(nóng)保的貢獻(xiàn)率指標(biāo)進(jìn)行實證分析,選取了6個具有代表性的參保年齡,按農(nóng)村收入水平的五個組別,分別設(shè)置各段參數(shù),測算了養(yǎng)老金的給付水平；又采用面板數(shù)據(jù)對我國最近幾年的基礎(chǔ)消費支出進(jìn)行測算,選擇低收入組、中低收入組、中等收入組這三組最需要養(yǎng)老金保障的農(nóng)民,分析其養(yǎng)老金貢獻(xiàn)率,發(fā)現(xiàn)對于新農(nóng)�！靶氯恕�,參保越早,貢獻(xiàn)率越大,即養(yǎng)老金的支付水平可以有效地保障農(nóng)村老年居民的基本生活消費支出。
[Abstract]:With the strengthening of the aging of the rural population, the acceleration of the urbanization process and the gradual weakening of the traditional family pension function in rural areas, the life of the elderly residents in rural areas cannot be basically guaranteed. In 2009, the State Council of our country issued a new rural insurance system. Establish the rural social endowment insurance system to cope with the aging of the population crisis. In order to discuss the sustainability and effect of the implementation of the new rural insurance policy, the concept of contribution rate is put forward in this paper. Through the proportion relationship between the total level of pension payment and the basic consumption expenditure, the paper measures whether the new rural insurance policy has achieved the purpose of protecting the farmers' life, and provides the factual basis for the feasibility and the stepwise promotion of the policy. Also for reducing the central financial pressure to provide data reference. In this part, on the one hand, we construct the actuarial model of the pension payment level of the new rural insurance, including deducing the accumulated total amount model of the annual pension paid by the individual account. The calculation and payment coefficient and the adjustment mechanism of basic pension are revised, and some important parameters are set up. On the other hand, the demand level model of rural old-age pension is established. The basic living expenses of the elderly residents in rural areas constitute the demand for pension. The calculation formula of the basic consumption level is deduced by using ELES model. The multivariate linear regression model was established to predict the basic consumption expenditure of the elderly residents. Then, the contribution rate index of new rural insurance in China is analyzed empirically. Six representative insurance age groups are selected. According to the five groups of rural income level, the parameters of each section are set up, and the pension payment level is calculated. We also use panel data to measure the basic consumption expenditure in recent years, select the low-income group, middle income group, these three groups of farmers most in need of pension protection, and analyze their pension contribution rate. It is found that the earlier the new rural insurance is, the greater the contribution rate is, that is, the payment level of pension can effectively protect the basic living expenses of the rural elderly residents.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F224;F842.67;F323.89

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