【摘要】：進入21世紀，中國的人口老齡化趨勢不斷加深，對社會統(tǒng)籌養(yǎng)老金收支平衡構成了嚴峻挑戰(zhàn)。通過養(yǎng)老保險參數(shù)調(diào)整來減少基金缺口，改善養(yǎng)老金收支狀況，實現(xiàn)制度良性運作已成為多數(shù)學者的共識。而我國現(xiàn)行的法定退休年齡已不能適應當前的基本國情，因而退休政策改革成已為參數(shù)調(diào)整的優(yōu)先選項，推遲退休年齡已是大勢所趨。 本文以對我國未來人口老齡化的預測分析為基礎，結合養(yǎng)老金收支預測模型，分析了未來的統(tǒng)籌養(yǎng)老金收支平衡狀況。同時，在借鑒國際經(jīng)驗的基礎上，結合中國的人口、就業(yè)及制度贍養(yǎng)率變化等因素制定推遲退休方案，，并進一步量化分析了改革方案對統(tǒng)籌養(yǎng)老金收支平衡的影響。最后，在研究結論的基礎上，本文提出了可供參考的政策建議。 除緒論外，本文主要分為五章，具體內(nèi)容安排如下： 第一章：相關概念界定及理論基礎。本章節(jié)著重對研究中需要使用的幾個重要概念進行了內(nèi)涵和外延的界定，同時對人口轉變理論、生命周期理論、代際交疊模型和社會統(tǒng)籌基金收支平衡理論等相關理論基礎進行論述。 第二章：城市職工退休政策的現(xiàn)狀及改革的合理性。本章一方面介紹了中國城鎮(zhèn)職工退休年齡的現(xiàn)行規(guī)定，指出了當前退休制度存在的問題，另一方面也分析了當前推遲退休的合理性。 第三章：現(xiàn)行退休政策下的社會統(tǒng)籌基金收支缺口的測算。本章在“六普”數(shù)據(jù)的基礎上，對未來的繳費人口數(shù)和退休人口數(shù)進行了預測，并以當前的退休政策為基礎，結合養(yǎng)老金供需模型與相關參數(shù)設定，進一步測算了中國未來的社會統(tǒng)籌養(yǎng)老金收支缺口。 第四章：推遲退休的方案設計及對社會統(tǒng)籌基金收支平衡影響的實證測算。本章在綜合考慮人口、就業(yè)等因素的基礎上，從合理起始點、目標退休年齡這兩個角度入手，設計了三種步驟不同的推遲退休方案。并從收入、支出和收支結構這三方面，對比分析了幾種方案對社會統(tǒng)籌基金收支平衡的影響。 第五章：研究結論與政策建議。綜上分析，得出推遲退休之必要性、未來統(tǒng)籌養(yǎng)老金收支缺口具體狀況、延退的實施步驟及對養(yǎng)老金收支結構的影響等相關結論。并且，針對結論提出具體可行的政策建議。
[Abstract]:In the 21st century, the aging trend of China's population is deepening, which poses a severe challenge to the balance of social pension income and expenditure. It has become the consensus of most scholars to reduce the fund gap, improve the income and expenditure of the pension and realize the benign operation of the system by adjusting the parameters of the pension insurance. But the current legal retirement age in our country can no longer adapt to the current basic national conditions, so the reform of retirement policy has become a priority option for parameter adjustment, and it is the trend of the times to postpone the retirement age. Based on the prediction and analysis of the future aging population in China and the forecast model of pension income and expenditure, this paper analyzes the balance of pension income and expenditure in the future. At the same time, on the basis of drawing lessons from international experience, combining with the changes of population, employment and system support rate of China, this paper formulates the deferred retirement scheme, and further quantifies the influence of the reform scheme on the balance of pension income and expenditure. Finally, on the basis of the research conclusions, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions for reference. In addition to the introduction, this paper is divided into five chapters, the specific content is arranged as follows: chapter 1: the definition of relevant concepts and theoretical basis. This chapter focuses on the connotation and extension of several important concepts that need to be used in the research, at the same time, the theory of population transition, the theory of life cycle, The intergenerational overlapping model and the theory of balance of income and expenditure of social fund are discussed. The second chapter: the status quo of urban worker retirement policy and the rationality of reform. On the one hand, this chapter introduces the current regulations of retirement age of urban workers in China, points out the problems existing in the current retirement system, on the other hand, analyzes the rationality of delaying retirement at present. The third chapter: the current retirement policy under the social balance fund income and expenditure gap measurement. On the basis of "six common" data, this chapter forecasts the number of future contributory and retired population, and based on the current retirement policy, combined with the pension supply and demand model and related parameters. Further calculate the gap of pension income and expenditure in the future. Chapter four: the scheme design of delaying retirement and the empirical calculation of the impact on the balance of income and expenditure of social overall fund. Based on the comprehensive consideration of population, employment and other factors, this chapter designs three different deferred retirement schemes from the point of view of the reasonable starting point and the target retirement age. From the three aspects of income, expenditure and structure of income and expenditure, this paper compares and analyzes the effects of several schemes on the balance of income and expenditure of social funds as a whole. Chapter V: conclusions and policy recommendations. Based on the above analysis, the author draws some conclusions, such as the necessity of postponing retirement, the specific situation of the gap of pension income and expenditure in the future, the implementation steps of delaying retirement and the influence on the structure of pension income and expenditure. At the same time, put forward concrete and feasible policy recommendations to the conclusion.
【學位授予單位】：遼寧大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F842.67

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