【摘要】：黨的十八大報告明確指出：在“統(tǒng)籌推進城鄉(xiāng)社會保障體系建設”中,要堅持“全覆蓋、�；�、多層次、可持續(xù)”的12字方針；“以增強公平性、適應流動性、保證可持續(xù)性為重點”,全面建成覆蓋城鄉(xiāng)居民的社會保障體系”。本文正是在此背景下展開研究的,對我國城鄉(xiāng)居民社會養(yǎng)老保險制度政策,提出進一步完善和可持續(xù)發(fā)展的戰(zhàn)略。本文在全面文獻回顧和國內外城鄉(xiāng)居民社會養(yǎng)老保險全覆蓋推進的綜述基礎上,對我國城鄉(xiāng)居民社會養(yǎng)老保險制度的現狀加以研究(第2章),基于我國人口的快速老齡化和人口的高位城市化發(fā)展視角,凝練出我國具有動態(tài)發(fā)展的、多層次和多支柱的社會養(yǎng)老保險政策完善的方法論。具體體現在基于城鄉(xiāng)居民社會養(yǎng)老保險制度基礎理論研究,提出“具有激勵適度普惠型”模式是制度優(yōu)化模式,在此基礎上提出我國城鄉(xiāng)居民社會養(yǎng)老保險制度的可持續(xù)發(fā)展目標(第3章),并在科學假設和充分的數據清洗、挖掘基礎上(第4章),構建中國城鄉(xiāng)居民社會養(yǎng)老保險制度仿真系統(tǒng)(第5章),使得政策的動態(tài)路徑仿真成為可能。其后本論文重點討論了中國城鄉(xiāng)居民社會養(yǎng)老保險制度仿真系統(tǒng)的運算結果,尤其是通過引入制度優(yōu)化模式后比較考慮城鎮(zhèn)化前后的運營狀況預測結果,得出主要研究結論(第6章),包括中國城鄉(xiāng)養(yǎng)老保險制度優(yōu)化模式理論在制度上可行、財政上可支撐、風險可控,中國城鄉(xiāng)居民養(yǎng)老保障的仿真系統(tǒng)是有效的等,在此基礎上,本論文提出了基于制度優(yōu)化模式的中國城鄉(xiāng)居民社會養(yǎng)老保險制度的政策路徑選擇“三步走”戰(zhàn)略,并給出了政策建議(第7章)。本文主要創(chuàng)新之處在于：一是理論創(chuàng)新,基于我國人口的快速老齡化和人口的高位城市化發(fā)展視角,依據相關基礎理論,提出城鄉(xiāng)居民社會養(yǎng)老保險政策完善的制度優(yōu)化理論；二技術創(chuàng)新,基于制度參量調整優(yōu)于結構調整的原則,將社會養(yǎng)老保險制度的內外生變量和參數、目標和發(fā)展模式進行科學化、“動態(tài)性與精準化和精確化”的統(tǒng)一方法論及智能化政策仿真系統(tǒng)構建；三是政策創(chuàng)新,針對中國城鄉(xiāng)居民社會養(yǎng)老保險制度未來發(fā)展方向,凝練出我國具有動態(tài)發(fā)展的、多層次和多支柱的優(yōu)化目標和政策路徑選擇“三步走”戰(zhàn)略。
[Abstract]:The report of the 18th National Congress of the Party clearly pointed out: in "comprehensively promoting the construction of the urban and rural social security system," the 12-character policy of "full coverage, basic protection, multi-level and sustainable" should be adhered to; "in order to enhance fairness and adapt to mobility," To ensure sustainability as the focus ", to build a comprehensive coverage of urban and rural residents of the social security system." It is under this background that this paper studies the policy of social old-age insurance system for urban and rural residents in China, and puts forward the strategy of further improvement and sustainable development. On the basis of a comprehensive literature review and a review of the full coverage of social endowment insurance for urban and rural residents at home and abroad, The present situation of social endowment insurance system for urban and rural residents in China is studied (Chapter 2). Based on the rapid aging of the population and the high urbanization development of the population, the paper condenses the dynamic development of our country. Multi-level and multi-pillar social endowment insurance policy perfect methodology. Based on the research of the basic theory of social endowment insurance system for urban and rural residents, this paper puts forward that the model of "with incentives and moderate inclusiveness" is the mode of system optimization. On this basis, the sustainable development goal of the social endowment insurance system for urban and rural residents in China is put forward (Chapter 3), and the scientific assumptions and sufficient data cleaning are given. On the basis of mining (chapter 4), the simulation system of Chinese urban and rural residents' social old-age insurance system (chapter 5) is constructed, which makes the dynamic path simulation of policy possible. Then this paper focuses on the calculation results of the simulation system of the social endowment insurance system for urban and rural residents in China, especially through the introduction of the system optimization model to compare and consider the forecast results of the operation status before and after urbanization. The main research conclusions (Chapter 6), including the theory of the optimization mode of the urban and rural endowment insurance system in China is feasible, the financial support is feasible, the risk is controllable, the simulation system of the Chinese urban and rural residents' pension security is effective and so on, on this basis, This paper puts forward the "three-step" strategy of the policy path selection of China's urban and rural residents' social old-age insurance system based on the system optimization model, and gives policy recommendations (Chapter 7). The main innovations of this paper are as follows: first, theoretical innovation, based on the rapid aging of the population and the high urbanization development perspective of the population, according to the relevant basic theory, put forward the perfect system optimization theory of urban and rural residents' social endowment insurance policy; Based on the principle that the adjustment of system parameters is superior to that of structural adjustment, the internal and external variables, parameters, objectives and development models of the social endowment insurance system are scientifically transformed. The unified methodology and intelligent policy simulation system of "dynamic and precision" are constructed. Thirdly, the policy innovation, aiming at the future development direction of China's urban and rural residents' social endowment insurance system, condenses out the dynamic development of our country. Multi-level and multi-pillar optimization objectives and policy path selection "three-step" strategy.
【學位授予單位】：浙江大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F842.67

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