本文選題：新農(nóng)保 + 城鄉(xiāng)勞動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)移��； 參考：《經(jīng)濟(jì)科學(xué)》2016年01期

【摘要】：本文首次討論了中國(guó)的新農(nóng)保對(duì)于城鄉(xiāng)勞動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)移的影響。利用中國(guó)家庭追蹤調(diào)查(CFPS)數(shù)據(jù)的分析表明,參加新農(nóng)保的農(nóng)村家庭要比沒(méi)有參加新農(nóng)保家庭外出的概率要高2%左右。新農(nóng)保這一影響存在"保障"效應(yīng)和"收入"效應(yīng)等兩種效應(yīng)。對(duì)于未滿60周歲的個(gè)人,新農(nóng)保主要通過(guò)"保障"效應(yīng)促進(jìn)農(nóng)民外出就業(yè)。因?yàn)槲礉M60周歲不能馬上獲得養(yǎng)老金,但是由于購(gòu)買了養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn),未來(lái)的不確定性降低,從而促進(jìn)農(nóng)民外出就業(yè)。對(duì)于已經(jīng)年滿60周歲的個(gè)人,參加新農(nóng)保能夠馬上獲得穩(wěn)定的養(yǎng)老金。這一筆收入有助這些老年人照顧自己以及家庭中的孩子,從而促進(jìn)家庭中中青年的外出就業(yè),這就是"收入"效應(yīng)。最后,工具變量方法的結(jié)果也支持上述發(fā)現(xiàn)。
[Abstract]:This paper first discusses the impact of China's new agricultural insurance on the transfer of urban and rural labor force. The analysis of the data of Chinese family tracking survey (CFPS) shows that the rural families who participate in the new agricultural insurance are about 2% higher than those who do not take part in the new agro insurance family. The effect of new agricultural insurance has two effects, such as the "guarantee" effect and the "income" effect. For individuals under the age of 60, the new agricultural insurance is mainly through the "guarantee" effect to promote the employment of farmers. Because the pension is not available at the age of 60, but due to the purchase of pension insurance, the uncertainty of the future will be reduced to promote the employment of the farmers. For the individuals who have reached the age of 60, the new farmers will be able to take part in the new agricultural insurance immediately. In the end, the results of the tool variable method support the results of the "income" effect.
【作者單位】： 北京大學(xué)國(guó)家發(fā)展研究院;南開(kāi)大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;中山大學(xué)管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：南開(kāi)大學(xué)中國(guó)特色社會(huì)主義經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心“社會(huì)主義市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)與經(jīng)濟(jì)體制改革”研究團(tuán)隊(duì)的階段性研究成果
【分類號(hào)】：F323.89;F842.67;F323.6

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