本文選題：全面二孩 + 單獨二孩��； 參考：《華東師范大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：老齡問題已經(jīng)長時間受到全球所關注,尤其從20世紀末開始,全世界大多數(shù)國家都普遍面臨這個問題。上海的人口年齡結構近年來隨著社會經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展正在發(fā)生著巨大的變化,與全國其他城市相比,上海很早就步入了老齡化階段,并且老齡化程度高、發(fā)展快。本文主要研究的內容包括三點:一是2030年上海按照高中低三種總和生育率方案的分年齡結構人口預測,并與當前年齡結構進行對比分析;二是2050年參與養(yǎng)老保險的勞動力人口預測,并與當前勞動力人口數(shù)量和勞動力比例進行分析;最后得出2050年養(yǎng)老保險繳費人口。三是對養(yǎng)老保險繳費人數(shù)增加的正負效應進行探討,并針對負效應從生育政策和社會基本養(yǎng)老保險政策的角度提出政策建議。對未來人口的預測,本文采用隊列要素法分年齡移算法。未來各個時期,各年齡性別的出生人數(shù)、死亡人數(shù)和遷移人數(shù)等均是變化的,借助單因素法各個手段,合理地對各個參數(shù)值進行估計,可實現(xiàn)準確預測;并且用該方法建立起來的模型中基本都是四則算術運算,對于數(shù)學學科知識要求不高,而且所需變量都是人口變量,在計算和推廣時相對較容易。本文的主要結論包括以下幾點:一是2030年上海人口總量和年齡結構預測情況。按照三個方案,到2030年與2015年相比,分別增長14.86%,12.6%和8.28%。按照"單獨二孩"方案,上海的老齡化程度嚴重,65歲以上人口占總人口的16.95%,而按照中方案和高方案該數(shù)值分別為11.3%和7.74%。高方案中老齡化程度得到緩解;二是2050年上海實際參保人數(shù)預測情況。按照高中低方案2050年與2015年參保人數(shù)相比分別增長76.66%,50.32%和25.02%;三是2050年上海退休城鎮(zhèn)職工領取養(yǎng)老金預測情況。得到2050個人領取養(yǎng)老金(已換算成當前水平)按三個方案進行計算分別為3721、3431、3140,與2015年城鎮(zhèn)職工養(yǎng)老金平均水平3315相比,高方案增長12.26%,中方案增長3.5%,"單獨二孩"方案與之相比減少5.27%。在高方案下,繳費人數(shù)的增長幅度大于領取養(yǎng)老金人數(shù)的增長幅度,"全面二孩"實施14年后養(yǎng)老保險繳費人數(shù)增加帶來了正效應;中方案下領取養(yǎng)老保險水平基本與現(xiàn)在持平,而"單獨二孩"方案下領取養(yǎng)老保險水平降低,繳費人數(shù)增加幅度小于領取養(yǎng)老金人數(shù)增長幅度,有限程度上提高了總和生育率,但無法抵消老齡化帶來的負效應。
[Abstract]:Ageing has long been a global concern, especially since the end of the 20th century. In recent years, the age structure of Shanghai's population is undergoing great changes with the development of social economy. Compared with other cities in China, Shanghai has stepped into an aging stage very early, with a high degree of aging and rapid development. The main contents of this paper include three points: first, the age structure population forecast of Shanghai in 2030 according to the three programs of high school and low total fertility, and compared with the current age structure; The second is the labor force population forecast of the pension insurance in 2050, and the analysis with the current labor force population and the proportion of labor force. Finally, the contribution population of the pension insurance in 2050 is obtained. The third is to discuss the positive and negative effects of the increase in the number of endowment insurance contributions, and to put forward policy recommendations from the perspective of fertility policy and social basic endowment insurance policy. To predict the future population, this paper uses the cohort element method to divide the age shift algorithm. In the future, the number of birth, death and emigration of each age and sex are all changed. By means of single factor method, the values of each parameter can be reasonably estimated, and the accurate prediction can be realized. The model established by this method is based on four arithmetic operations, which requires little knowledge of mathematics, and the variables required are population variables, which are relatively easy to calculate and popularize. The main conclusions are as follows: first, the population and age structure of Shanghai in 2030. According to the three programs, by 2030 compared with 2015, the increase of 14.86% and 8.28% respectively. According to the "single two-child" scheme, the population aged over 65 years old in Shanghai accounts for 16.95% of the total population, while 11.3% and 7.74% respectively according to the medium and high schemes. The aging degree of the high plan is alleviated, the second is the forecast of the actual insured population in Shanghai in 2050. According to the low plan of senior high school in 2050 and 2015, the number of insured persons increased 76.660.32% and 25.02% respectively; third, the forecast of retirement pension for urban workers in Shanghai in 2050. A total of 2050 pensioners (who have been converted to the current level) have been calculated as 3721 / 3431 / 3140 according to three schemes, respectively. Compared with the average pension level of urban workers in 2015, the high scheme has increased by 12.26 percent, the middle plan has increased by 3.5 percent, and the "single two-child" scheme has decreased by 5.27m compared with the average level of the urban worker's pension in 2015. Under the high scheme, the increase in the number of contributors is greater than the increase in the number of pensioners, and the increase in the number of contributory contributions to the old-age insurance after 14 years of implementation of the "all-around two-child" scheme has had a positive effect; the level of receiving old-age insurance under the medium scheme is basically the same as that of the present scheme. However, the level of old-age insurance under the "single two-child" scheme is lower, and the increase in the number of contributors is smaller than the increase in the number of pensioners, which increases the total fertility rate to a limited extent, but cannot offset the negative effects of aging.
【學位授予單位】：華東師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F842.67

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