本文選題：養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn) + 轉(zhuǎn)軌成本　； 參考：《西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：“老有所養(yǎng)”與“病有所醫(yī)”、“住有所居”一樣,是幾千年來中國人的夢想,既是歷代施行“仁政”的明君的目標(biāo),也是儒家文化下心懷天下的士大夫的夢想�？梢哉f,無論什么時(shí)候,養(yǎng)老問題將一直是社會(huì)關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。今天,當(dāng)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)總量位居世界第二的時(shí)候,養(yǎng)老依然是人們生活中永恒不變的主題。 我國1997年以前一直實(shí)行的是現(xiàn)收現(xiàn)付制養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度,即由下一代人撫養(yǎng)上一代人,但是隨著老齡化程度的加劇,領(lǐng)取養(yǎng)老金的人越老越多,繼續(xù)采用現(xiàn)收現(xiàn)付制將會(huì)產(chǎn)生巨大的支付壓力,只能通過不斷提高在職人員的繳費(fèi)率以滿足日益增長的退休人員的養(yǎng)老金需求,但是這與“減輕企業(yè)負(fù)擔(dān)”的改革目標(biāo)是相悖的。在這種情況下,我國引入了個(gè)人賬戶,旨在通過個(gè)人賬戶預(yù)先積累一部分基金,并實(shí)現(xiàn)基金的增值,從而滿足未來老齡化高峰期時(shí)的養(yǎng)老金支付需求。1997年,國務(wù)院發(fā)布的《關(guān)于建立統(tǒng)一的企業(yè)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度的決定》,標(biāo)志著社會(huì)統(tǒng)籌與個(gè)人賬戶相結(jié)合的職工養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)模式初步確立。“統(tǒng)賬結(jié)合”的養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度可以有效地應(yīng)對(duì)老齡化,其初衷是在不增加企業(yè)和在職職工負(fù)擔(dān)的情況下,維持養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度長期的收支平衡。但是,新制度運(yùn)行的第一年1998年全國基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金收支缺口就為100多億,1999年為200多億,直到2011年我國的收支缺口已經(jīng)達(dá)到767億元,而個(gè)人賬戶“空賬”規(guī)模高達(dá)2.2萬億元。“統(tǒng)賬結(jié)合”的養(yǎng)老模式并沒有實(shí)現(xiàn)預(yù)期的效果。為什么個(gè)人賬戶會(huì)出現(xiàn)“空賬”呢?從表象上看,由于統(tǒng)籌賬戶收不抵支,為了確保企業(yè)已退休職工的養(yǎng)老問題,政府不得不挪用應(yīng)作為積累用的個(gè)人賬戶基金,從而形成了個(gè)人賬戶“空賬”的局面。通過.分析,本文認(rèn)為導(dǎo)致個(gè)人賬戶“空賬”的本質(zhì)原因是政府沒有為制度變革付出轉(zhuǎn)軌成本。因此本文在研究做實(shí)個(gè)人賬戶意義的基礎(chǔ)上,指出解決轉(zhuǎn)軌成本問題的重要性,并運(yùn)用精算方法對(duì)未來65年的轉(zhuǎn)軌成本進(jìn)行預(yù)測。 在閱讀了相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用精算模型考察我國養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度在改革過程中遇到的問題。從理論方面和實(shí)證方面做了詳細(xì)的討論,研究的主要內(nèi)容如下： 首先,對(duì)為什么研究我國的養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)軌成本進(jìn)行選題說明,并對(duì)相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行梳理,從兩個(gè)方面總結(jié)學(xué)習(xí)評(píng)價(jià)已有的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn),進(jìn)一步提出研究的切入點(diǎn)。 其次,在介紹了養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)的相關(guān)概念之后,對(duì)轉(zhuǎn)軌成本的產(chǎn)生作了歷史性分析,通過對(duì)未來個(gè)人賬戶“空賬”規(guī)模的預(yù)測,指出解決轉(zhuǎn)軌成本問題的必要性。 再次,運(yùn)用精算模型,按照“老人”、“中人”和“新人”三類人群對(duì)我國的養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)軌成本的規(guī)模進(jìn)行測算。 最后,針對(duì)我國的當(dāng)前形勢,總結(jié)比較了各種養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)軌成本的籌資方案。指出我國需要擴(kuò)大養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)覆蓋面,但是不應(yīng)該把擴(kuò)面“新人”的繳費(fèi)當(dāng)作解決養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)隱性債務(wù)的辦法；在目前情況下,中國也不宜采用債務(wù)融資或稅收融資來解決養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)軌成本,最切實(shí)際的解決辦法還是通過調(diào)整財(cái)政支出結(jié)構(gòu),加大財(cái)政補(bǔ)償力度以及雙軌制“并軌”作為養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金的籌資渠道。 現(xiàn)行制度在融資方式上仍然保持現(xiàn)收現(xiàn)付制,與過去的企業(yè)現(xiàn)收現(xiàn)付制度相比,除擴(kuò)大了統(tǒng)籌范圍和強(qiáng)制個(gè)人繳費(fèi)外,在融資方式和給付方式上沒有實(shí)質(zhì)的改革,仍然不能有效地應(yīng)對(duì)老齡化所帶來的影響�？梢�,做實(shí)個(gè)人賬戶是實(shí)現(xiàn)“統(tǒng)賬結(jié)合”的關(guān)鍵。首先,我們要了解個(gè)人賬戶“空賬”的形成原因。 為什么養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)系統(tǒng)在運(yùn)行過程中會(huì)出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重的收不抵支以及“空賬”問題呢?本文認(rèn)為在新體制運(yùn)行之初由“老人”和“中人”引發(fā)的轉(zhuǎn)軌成本是導(dǎo)致這一問題的根本原因。其次,我國日趨嚴(yán)重的老齡化現(xiàn)象加劇了“空賬”危機(jī)。而且,在現(xiàn)行的養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)覆蓋人群中,機(jī)關(guān)事業(yè)單位的人員占據(jù)了一定的比重,其特殊的繳費(fèi)制度也造成了一定的影響。本文將就這些因素進(jìn)行逐一分析。 中國是世界人口最多的發(fā)展中國家,中國的養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度改革牽涉面之廣、影響之大是前所未有的,必然受到全世界的關(guān)注。中國養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)“統(tǒng)賬結(jié)合”模式是否能夠成功,在很多的程度上取決于能否解決轉(zhuǎn)軌成本問題。因此對(duì)轉(zhuǎn)軌成本的研究將具有重要的意義。 對(duì)我國養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)軌成本的規(guī)模進(jìn)行測算,得出較為準(zhǔn)確和可信的結(jié)果,有利于政府在總量上對(duì)我國養(yǎng)老金政策的把握。 通過探討?zhàn)B老保險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)軌成本的解決方案,并預(yù)測方案實(shí)施后的資金變動(dòng)情況和徹底解決我國養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)債務(wù)的時(shí)間,對(duì)完善我國公共養(yǎng)老金制度有著重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 合理解決中國養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)軌成本能夠縮短新制度開始規(guī)范運(yùn)作的時(shí)間,有利于社會(huì)穩(wěn)定和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度的改革在一定程度上決定著中國勞動(dòng)力市場能否正常和有序地進(jìn)行,關(guān)系到中國社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)能否健康持續(xù)的發(fā)展。 由于發(fā)展中國家的人口經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境、資本市場成熟程度與發(fā)達(dá)國家存在明顯差異,所以發(fā)展中國不能照搬發(fā)達(dá)國家的養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度改革經(jīng)驗(yàn)。而作為最大的發(fā)展中國家,中國養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)改革的經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)卻可以為廣大發(fā)展中國家提供有益的借鑒。本文對(duì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度的基本理論、我國養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)軌成本的規(guī)模以及解決養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)軌成本的方法進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)的研究。首先闡述了養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)的基本概念和發(fā)展歷程,并對(duì)相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行了回顧。在對(duì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)軌成本的歷史分析下,構(gòu)建了精算模型,測算了我國的養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)軌成本規(guī)模。在測算轉(zhuǎn)軌成本的同時(shí),還對(duì)我國個(gè)人賬戶的空賬規(guī)模進(jìn)行了預(yù)測,有助于我們更好地把握我國養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)債務(wù)的特點(diǎn)以及我國養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)社會(huì)統(tǒng)籌基金未來的收支狀況。在此基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合了我國相關(guān)的制度背景和定量測算結(jié)果,對(duì)解決轉(zhuǎn)軌成本的各種辦法進(jìn)行了可行性分析和效果分析。本文的主要研究結(jié)論如下： 在考慮了“新人”擴(kuò)面的情形下,對(duì)我國養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)個(gè)人賬戶的“空賬”規(guī)模進(jìn)行了預(yù)測。通過測算,我們認(rèn)為,我國不應(yīng)該指望利用擴(kuò)面“新人”的繳費(fèi)來償還“老人”和“中人”的債務(wù)。原因有兩點(diǎn)：第一,利用“新人”繳費(fèi)來解燃眉之急,只是目光短淺的表現(xiàn),不僅違背代際公平原則,而且等到大批“新人”退休、擴(kuò)面潛力逐漸消失的時(shí)候,養(yǎng)老金的支付危機(jī)才會(huì)真正顯現(xiàn)出來。第二,通過“新人”長期維持高繳費(fèi)率來償還“老人”和“中人”的債務(wù),不僅會(huì)增加擴(kuò)面難度,和基金征繳難度,而且會(huì)對(duì)中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展有不利影響。所以,我國政府應(yīng)當(dāng)重視轉(zhuǎn)軌成本,主動(dòng)承擔(dān)起解決轉(zhuǎn)軌成本問題的責(zé)任。 我國養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)政府支出僅占國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的4.3%,低于世界的平均水平,像日本、美國和加拿大這些國家的養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)政府支出部分已經(jīng)達(dá)到了20%,我國應(yīng)當(dāng)調(diào)整財(cái)政支出結(jié)構(gòu)壓縮一些“越位”和效率不高的財(cái)政支出項(xiàng)目,為增加養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)補(bǔ)助支出騰出“空間”。 為了實(shí)現(xiàn)我國養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度的可持續(xù)性發(fā)展,國家需要采取一些宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策,以保證預(yù)期目標(biāo)的實(shí)現(xiàn)。具體來講,一是通過調(diào)整財(cái)政支出結(jié)構(gòu)來合理彌補(bǔ)養(yǎng)老金缺口,建立與完善社會(huì)保障預(yù)算；二是多渠道籌集養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)資金；三是落實(shí)“雙軌制”并軌。 本文在定量測算的基礎(chǔ)上,分析各種償還養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)債務(wù)辦法在中國的可行性,并對(duì)延長退休年齡等制度內(nèi)解決方案進(jìn)行了定量分析,得出該政策不能從根本上解決我國的轉(zhuǎn)軌成本問題,只能起到一定的緩解效果,最根本的方法應(yīng)該是從制度外尋求出路。本文重點(diǎn)測算了未來各年養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)補(bǔ)助支出占財(cái)政支出的比重,更直觀和充分的說明了財(cái)政補(bǔ)償?shù)目尚行?增強(qiáng)了說服力。 本文研究解決轉(zhuǎn)軌成本的途徑時(shí),從財(cái)政支出角度研究了養(yǎng)老金缺口的財(cái)政支付問題,而對(duì)于財(cái)政收入問題涉及較少,有待于今后進(jìn)一步研究。 本文主要研究的城鎮(zhèn)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)問題,對(duì)農(nóng)村養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)涉及較少,隨著養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)覆蓋面的不斷擴(kuò)大,難以對(duì)中國養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)體系的健全和完善提出整體性建議。 本文對(duì)于未來所進(jìn)行的測算以及得到的結(jié)論都是建立在一定的假設(shè)條件下的。如果要得到更精準(zhǔn)的結(jié)論,還需要結(jié)合我國養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)改革的實(shí)際情況進(jìn)行分析。
[Abstract]:It is the dream of the Chinese people for thousands of years and the dream of the scholar - doctor in the world under the Confucian culture .

In 1997 , the income and expenditure gap in China ' s basic endowment insurance fund is more than 1 billion yuan , which is more than 200 billion yuan in 1999 .

On the basis of reading the relevant literatures , the problems encountered in the reform process of the endowment insurance system of our country are investigated by using the actuarial model . The main contents of the study are as follows :

First of all , how to study the cost of the transition of endowment insurance in our country is explained , and the relevant literatures are reviewed , and the relevant literatures of the study evaluation are summarized from two aspects , and the entry point of the study is further proposed .

Secondly , after the introduction of the related concept of endowment insurance , the paper analyzes the production of transition cost , and points out the necessity of solving the problem of transition cost by forecasting the scale of " empty account " in future personal accounts .

Thirdly , using the actuarial model , according to the " old man " , " middle - person " and " new person " group , the scale of the transition cost of endowment insurance of our country is measured .

Finally , according to the current situation in our country , the financing schemes of various endowment insurance transition costs are summarized and compared . It is pointed out that China needs to expand the coverage of endowment insurance , but should not treat the contribution of " new person " as a means to solve the hidden debt of endowment insurance ;
Under the current circumstances , China should not adopt debt financing or tax financing to solve the transition cost of endowment insurance , the most practical solution is to adjust the structure of fiscal expenditure , increase financial compensation and double - track " parallel track " as the financing channel of endowment insurance fund .

Compared with the existing cash payment system in the past , there is no substantial reform in the financing mode and the payment method , but still cannot effectively deal with the impact of aging . At first , we need to know the reasons for the formation of the " empty account " of the individual account .

Why the old - age insurance system has serious income and bad debts during the operation process and the " empty account " problem ? This paper holds that the transition cost caused by " old man " and " middle - person " in the beginning of the operation of the new system is the root cause of this problem . Secondly , the phenomenon of aging in China is aggravated by the " empty account " crisis . Moreover , in the current endowment insurance coverage , the personnel of the institution and institution occupy a certain proportion , and its special payment system also has a certain influence . This article will analyze these factors one by one .

China is the most populous developing country in the world , the reform of endowment insurance system in China involves a wide range , the influence is unprecedented , it is inevitable to be concerned about the whole world .

The scale of the transition cost of endowment insurance in our country is measured , and the accurate and credible results are obtained , which is beneficial to the government ' s understanding of the pension policy in China .

Through discussing the solution of the transition cost of endowment insurance , and forecasting the change of funds after the implementation of the scheme and the time for the total settlement of our country ' s endowment insurance debt , it is of great practical significance to perfect the public pension system in China .

It is beneficial to the social stability and economic growth . The reform of the endowment insurance system determines whether the Chinese labor market can be carried out in a normal and orderly manner , and the sustainable development of the Chinese social economy .

In this paper , the basic theory of endowment insurance system , the scale of endowment insurance reform in China and the method of solving the transition cost of endowment insurance are discussed in this paper .

The paper forecasts the scale of the " Empty Account " in the personal account of endowment insurance in China under the condition of " new person " . Through calculation , we believe that China should not rely on the payment of " new person " to repay the debts of " old man " and " middle - person " .

China ' s endowment insurance government expenditure only accounts for 4.3 % of GDP , below the average of the world , like Japan , the United States and Canada ' s endowment insurance government expenditure part has reached 20 % , our country should adjust the financial expenditure structure to compress some " offside " and inefficient financial expenditure item , to increase the endowment insurance subsidy expenditure free " space " .

In order to realize the sustainable development of our country ' s endowment insurance system , some macro - economic policies need to be adopted by the country to ensure the realization of the expected goal .
Second , raise the endowment insurance fund in multi - channel ;
The third is to implement the " double track system " and the track .

On the basis of quantitative calculation , this paper analyzes the feasibility of various kinds of repayment old - age pension schemes in China , and makes quantitative analysis on the solution in the system of extending the retirement age .

In this paper , the problem of financial payment of pension gap is studied from the angle of financial expenditure when the cost of transition is solved , and the problem of fiscal revenue is less , which is expected to be further studied in the future .

This article mainly studies the urban old - age insurance problem , has little to the rural endowment insurance , with the expanding of the endowment insurance coverage , it is difficult to put forward the whole suggestion to the sound and perfect of the endowment insurance system of China .

In this paper , it is necessary to analyze the actual situation of the reform of endowment insurance in our country if more accurate conclusions are to be obtained .

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F842.67;F840.4

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