【摘要】：隨著城市化進(jìn)程的快速發(fā)展,城市內(nèi)部老城區(qū)的發(fā)展步伐落后于城市新區(qū)的發(fā)展速度,老城區(qū)的很多房屋由于年久失修,配套基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施不齊全等問題而亟待改造,這些危房舊房組成了大面積的棚戶區(qū),對棚戶區(qū)的改造是一項比較復(fù)雜的系統(tǒng)工程,其面臨拆遷困難,安置補償成本大,對資金需求規(guī)模較大,融資風(fēng)險問題成為整個項目改造的關(guān)鍵問題。使用科學(xué)的方法對融資風(fēng)險進(jìn)行識別評價,不僅能對項目融資整體風(fēng)險水平有更清楚的認(rèn)識,而且能對風(fēng)險的控制具有指導(dǎo)性意義。本論文在國內(nèi)外研究成果和實地調(diào)研的基礎(chǔ)上,以棚戶區(qū)改造項目融資問題為研究對象,首先在公共物品理論和項目融資理論基礎(chǔ)上對項目融資運作流程進(jìn)行分析,界定了棚戶區(qū)的含義,確定了項目融資的主要參與者,創(chuàng)新了棚戶區(qū)改造項目融資模式;結(jié)合風(fēng)險評價理論和風(fēng)險識別理論,以融資風(fēng)險評價流程為線索,運用了定性研究與定量分析相結(jié)合方法,識別了對項目融資有影響的風(fēng)險因素,并對這些風(fēng)險因素進(jìn)行研究分析。本論文在分析棚戶區(qū)改造項目融資過程中存在的主要影響因素的基礎(chǔ)上,著重研究每個影響因素的影響機理,建立了適用于棚戶區(qū)改造項目融資風(fēng)險評價的指標(biāo)體系。運用了風(fēng)險價值模型(VaR)對融資風(fēng)險進(jìn)行評估,模擬分析了財務(wù)風(fēng)險和市場風(fēng)險的變化時對項目融資的影響。結(jié)合層次分析法(AHP)構(gòu)建了基于灰色系統(tǒng)理論和模糊數(shù)學(xué)理論的灰類模糊理論評價方法,設(shè)計調(diào)查問卷獲得指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)。最后以哈爾濱市DW棚戶區(qū)改造項目為例,針對主要風(fēng)險因素對項目融資的影響程度進(jìn)行研究,得出了項目融資的整體風(fēng)險水平情況。針對棚戶區(qū)改造項目融資風(fēng)險問題,從項目公司角度和政府相關(guān)部門角度提出風(fēng)險應(yīng)對策略。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the urbanization process, the pace of the development of the old urban area lags behind that of the new urban district. Many houses in the old urban area are in urgent need of transformation because of the problems of old disrepair, incomplete supporting infrastructure, and so on. These dilapidated old houses form a large area of shantytowns. The transformation of shantytowns is a more complex systematic project. It faces difficulties in demolition and relocation, has a large cost of resettlement and compensation, and requires a large scale of funds. The financing risk problem becomes the key problem of the whole project transformation. The use of scientific methods to identify and evaluate the financing risks can not only have a clearer understanding of the overall risk level of project financing, but also have a guiding significance for risk control. Based on the domestic and foreign research results and field research, this paper takes the shantytown reconstruction project financing as the research object. Firstly, on the basis of public goods theory and project financing theory, this paper analyzes the project financing operation process. It defines the meaning of shantytown, determines the main participants of project financing, and innovates the financing mode of shantytown reconstruction project. Combined with risk evaluation theory and risk identification theory, the paper uses qualitative research and quantitative analysis to identify the risk factors that have an impact on project financing, taking the financing risk evaluation process as a clue and combining qualitative research with quantitative analysis. And these risk factors are studied and analyzed. Based on the analysis of the main influencing factors in the process of shantytown reconstruction project financing, this paper focuses on the influence mechanism of each factor, and establishes an index system suitable for evaluating the financing risk of shantytown reconstruction project. The risk value model (VaR) is used to evaluate the financing risk, and the influence of the change of financial risk and market risk on project financing is simulated and analyzed. The evaluation method of grey fuzzy theory based on grey system theory and fuzzy mathematics theory is constructed based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The questionnaire is designed to obtain the index data. Finally, taking the DW shantytown reconstruction project in Harbin as an example, this paper studies the influence of main risk factors on project financing, and obtains the overall risk level of project financing. Aiming at the problem of financing risk of shantytown reconstruction project, this paper puts forward the risk countermeasures from the angle of project company and relevant government departments.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.27

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