【摘要】：隨著PPP模式熱潮的到來,2014年以來,國(guó)家頒布了大量PPP政策和法規(guī),以促進(jìn)和支持PPP模式發(fā)展。各地政府紛紛開始采用PPP模式提供基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和公共服務(wù),大量的推進(jìn)PPP項(xiàng)目發(fā)展。隨著大規(guī)模的PPP項(xiàng)目落地,由于PPP模式的運(yùn)用尚有不完善和不成熟之處,PPP模式只是提供基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)的選項(xiàng)之一,政府不能主觀偏好某一采購模式或否定某一模式,應(yīng)當(dāng)有科學(xué)的可量化的依據(jù)來判斷該模式是否物有所值(Value for Money,簡(jiǎn)稱VFM)。本研究旨在通過分析PPP項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理過程,深入研究風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)對(duì)PPP物有所值定量評(píng)價(jià)的影響,基于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)結(jié)果,構(gòu)建符合中國(guó)國(guó)情的物有所值定量評(píng)價(jià)模型,對(duì)VFM的計(jì)算提供較為科學(xué)合理的計(jì)算方法,為政府對(duì)PPP項(xiàng)目成本、效果等方面的評(píng)估提供參考。首先,通過對(duì)PPP模式、PPP風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理、PPP物有所值定量評(píng)價(jià)的理論基礎(chǔ)和概念進(jìn)行界定,在分析PPP物有所值的影響因素后,發(fā)現(xiàn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)結(jié)果表現(xiàn)為保留風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值和可轉(zhuǎn)移風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值對(duì)物有所值定量評(píng)價(jià)有至關(guān)重要的影響。其次,在此基礎(chǔ)上,全面分析了 VFM中的PPP項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn),詳細(xì)分析了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)如何影響物有所值定量評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果,對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損失的評(píng)估、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率統(tǒng)計(jì)提出科學(xué)的方法進(jìn)行計(jì)算,并深入研究了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)和物有所值定量評(píng)價(jià)之間的關(guān)系,為建立基于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)的PPP項(xiàng)目物有所值評(píng)價(jià)模型奠定了基礎(chǔ)。接下來,在總結(jié)和分析我國(guó)PPP項(xiàng)目的基本運(yùn)作模式和特點(diǎn)的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合中國(guó)的法律法規(guī)具體情況,識(shí)別出的VFM評(píng)價(jià)模型中的主要指標(biāo),如:初始PSC、競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中立涉及到的因素,形成完整的PPP項(xiàng)目評(píng)價(jià)模型,提出了適用于中國(guó)PPP項(xiàng)目基于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)的PPP物有所值定量評(píng)價(jià)模型。最后,選擇了 J市經(jīng)開區(qū)的一個(gè)PPP項(xiàng)目作為案例項(xiàng)目,通過走訪、查閱、調(diào)研等方式獲取到項(xiàng)目的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),并將新構(gòu)建的基于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)的VFM定量評(píng)價(jià)模型應(yīng)用到案例項(xiàng)目中,對(duì)其進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證和實(shí)踐,為PPP項(xiàng)目的物有所值評(píng)價(jià)提供可量化依據(jù),為政府對(duì)PPP模式的決策選擇提供參考。
[Abstract]:With the arrival of PPP mode upsurge, China has promulgated a large number of PPP policies and regulations since 2014 to promote and support the development of PPP model. Local governments began to use the PPP model to provide infrastructure and public services, a large number of PPP projects to promote the development. As large-scale PPP projects hit the ground, because the use of the PPP model is still imperfect and immature, the PPP model is only one of the options for providing infrastructure products or services. There should be a scientific quantifiable basis for determining whether the model is worth the value for money (Value for Money, for short VFM). The purpose of this study is to analyze the risk management process of PPP projects, and to study the impact of risk sharing on the quantitative evaluation of PPP value for money. Based on the results of risk sharing, a quantitative evaluation model of value for money in accordance with the national conditions of China is constructed. This paper provides a scientific and reasonable calculation method for VFM calculation, and provides a reference for the government to evaluate the cost and effect of PPP project. First of all, by defining the theoretical basis and concept of PPP risk management and quantitative evaluation of PPP value for money, after analyzing the influencing factors of PPP value for money, It is found that the risk sharing results show that the retained risk value and transferable risk value play an important role in the quantitative evaluation of value for money. Secondly, on this basis, the paper analyzes the risk of PPP project in VFM, analyzes in detail how risk sharing affects the quantitative evaluation results of value for money, and puts forward a scientific method to calculate the risk loss and risk probability statistics. The relationship between risk sharing and quantitative evaluation of value for money is deeply studied, which lays a foundation for establishing the model of PPP project value for money evaluation based on risk sharing. Then, on the basis of summarizing and analyzing the basic operating mode and characteristics of PPP projects in China, combined with the specific situation of China's laws and regulations, the main indicators of the VFM evaluation model are identified, such as: the factors involved in the initial PSC, competition. A complete evaluation model of PPP project is formed, and a quantitative evaluation model of PPP value for money based on risk sharing for Chinese PPP project is put forward. Finally, a PPP project in Jingkai District of J City is selected as a case project, and the relevant data of the project are obtained by visiting, consulting, investigating and so on. The new VFM quantitative evaluation model based on risk sharing is applied to the case project, and it is verified and practiced to provide the quantifiable basis for the evaluation of the value for money of the PPP project and the reference for the government to choose the PPP model.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：昆明理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F283

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