本文選題：資本賬戶開放 + 就業(yè)�。� 參考：《世界經(jīng)濟研究》2017年11期

【摘要】：文章通過理論機制分析認為,資本賬戶開放通過經(jīng)濟增長、通貨膨脹和經(jīng)常賬戶波動三個渠道對一國的就業(yè)率產(chǎn)生影響。鑒于此,文章使用多門檻面板回歸模型,對66個樣本國家進行多層嵌套分組并分析了不同類型國家資本賬戶開放與就業(yè)的非線性關系。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):首先,資本賬戶開放對就業(yè)確實存在門檻效應,且在人均GDP水平、通脹水平和經(jīng)常賬戶余額三個門檻變量上都存在顯著的雙門檻效應;其次,資本賬戶開放對就業(yè)的影響與經(jīng)常賬戶余額之間呈現(xiàn)非單調(diào)的關系;最后,不同類型國家資本賬戶開放的就業(yè)效應存在顯著差異,為了提高就業(yè)率,一些新興經(jīng)濟體可以適當推進資本項目的開放,對于部分發(fā)達國家應當加強對跨境資本流動的管制,而我國則應在逐步放開資本賬戶的同時維持經(jīng)常賬戶的盈余以及深化金融市場的發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Through the theoretical mechanism analysis, this paper argues that the opening of capital account has an impact on the employment rate of a country through three channels: economic growth, inflation and current account fluctuation. In view of this, the multi-threshold panel regression model is used to group 66 sample countries into multi-layer nested groups and the nonlinear relationship between capital account opening and employment in different types of countries is analyzed. It is found that: first, the capital account opening does have a threshold effect on employment, and there are significant double-threshold effects on the per capita GDP level, inflation level and current account balance. There is a non-monotonous relationship between the impact of capital account opening on employment and current account balances. Finally, there are significant differences in the employment effects of capital account opening in different types of countries, in order to increase the employment rate. Some emerging economies can appropriately promote the opening of capital accounts, and some developed countries should tighten controls on cross-border capital flows. China should keep the surplus of current account and deepen the development of financial market while liberalizing the capital account step by step.
【作者單位】： 深圳大學經(jīng)濟學院;
【基金】：深圳市十三五規(guī)劃一般課題項目“深圳市高新技術產(chǎn)業(yè)全要素生產(chǎn)率研究”(項目編號:135B012)資助
【分類號】：F249.1;F831.6

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