本文選題：企業(yè)價值 + 價值評估�。� 參考：《廣東工業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,資產(chǎn)重組、企業(yè)并購等資本運(yùn)作活動日益增加,對企業(yè)的利益相關(guān)者來說,如何準(zhǔn)確地估計(jì)企業(yè)價值是急需解決的問題。收益現(xiàn)值評估方法提供了一種解答。收益現(xiàn)值評估方法,包括股利折現(xiàn)模型、自由現(xiàn)金流折現(xiàn)模型、剩余收益模型。企業(yè)管理者和投資者廣泛使用自由現(xiàn)金流折現(xiàn)模型和股利折現(xiàn)模型評估企業(yè)價值,但是其存在諸多缺陷。相對而言,運(yùn)用傳統(tǒng)剩余收益模型對房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)價值評估,彌補(bǔ)了傳統(tǒng)評估方法僅能對有限利用會計(jì)信息的不足。但是仍存在兩大缺陷:未闡明如何利用企業(yè)歷史財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)測其未來剩余收益的方法;未解決由于無限預(yù)期造成的長期收益預(yù)測的難題。從而本文引入了杜邦分析體系及P/E和P/B乘數(shù),改進(jìn)了傳統(tǒng)剩余收益模型,推導(dǎo)出新的剩余收益模型公式。然后以萬科集團(tuán)為例,運(yùn)用改進(jìn)后的剩余收益模型對其進(jìn)行價值評估。首先,本文文獻(xiàn)調(diào)研了四個部分,包括基于剩余收益模型的盈余信息價值相關(guān)性、剩余收益估值模型與其他估值模型的比較分析、剩余收益估值模型對股票收益預(yù)測能力、剩余收益估值模型應(yīng)用于具體的企業(yè)估值。其次,介紹了企業(yè)價值的概念、艾爾文·費(fèi)雪的資本價值理論、MM理論、權(quán)衡理論。再次,由于傳統(tǒng)剩余收益模型存在實(shí)踐應(yīng)用方面的缺陷,本文引入了杜邦分析體系及P/E和P/B乘數(shù),改進(jìn)傳統(tǒng)剩余收益模型,推導(dǎo)出新的剩余收益模型。這也為接下來的案例研究做了鋪墊。接著,本文以萬科集團(tuán)為例,考慮企業(yè)所面臨的商業(yè)環(huán)境及歷年會計(jì)數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用改進(jìn)后的剩余收益模型進(jìn)行價值評估。本文計(jì)算出企業(yè)在2016年12月31日時點(diǎn)的股權(quán)價值,分析內(nèi)在價值與股價產(chǎn)生差異化的原因。最后,本文基于對案例的研究,得出三點(diǎn)結(jié)論。第一,運(yùn)用改進(jìn)后的剩余收益模型測算出萬科集團(tuán)在2016年12月31日時點(diǎn)的股權(quán)價值為21,391,212.61萬元,計(jì)算結(jié)果比實(shí)際市值低1,294,240.39萬元,說明萬科集團(tuán)當(dāng)年年末的股價比內(nèi)在價值高;第二,萬科集團(tuán)內(nèi)在價值對資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率(ATO)、權(quán)益乘數(shù)(EM)、市盈率(P/E)、每股盈余(E)敏感性強(qiáng),而對于銷售收入(S)、銷售凈利率(MOS)、權(quán)益資本成本(r)敏感性弱。進(jìn)行多因素敏感性分析,可得萬科集團(tuán)股權(quán)價值最樂觀的估值是27,899,898.95萬元,最悲觀的結(jié)果為14,127,438.74萬元;第三,剩余收益模型能夠科學(xué)評定企業(yè)價值創(chuàng)造的能力。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of Chinese economy, capital operation activities such as asset reorganization, enterprise merger and acquisition are increasing day by day. How to estimate the enterprise value accurately is an urgent problem for the stakeholders of the enterprise. The present value method provides an answer. The present value evaluation methods include dividend discount model, free cash flow discount model and residual income model. The discounted free cash flow model and the dividend discount model are widely used by managers and investors to evaluate the enterprise value, but they have many defects. Comparatively speaking, the traditional residual income model is used to evaluate the value of real estate enterprises, which makes up for the deficiency that the traditional evaluation method can only make use of the limited accounting information. However, there are still two defects: how to use the historical financial data of enterprises to predict their future residual income, and not to solve the problem of long-term income prediction caused by infinite expectations. In this paper, we introduce the DuPont analysis system and P / E and P / B multipliers, improve the traditional residual income model, and deduce a new formula of residual income model. Then take Vanke Group as an example, use the improved residual income model to evaluate its value. Firstly, this paper investigates four parts, including the correlation of surplus information value based on residual return model, the comparative analysis between residual income valuation model and other valuation models, and the ability of residual income valuation model to predict stock returns. The residual income valuation model is applied to the specific enterprise valuation. Secondly, it introduces the concept of enterprise value, Alvin Fisher's capital value theory and weighing theory. Thirdly, due to the defects of the traditional residual income model, this paper introduces the DuPont analysis system and P- / E and P- / B multipliers, improves the traditional residual income model, and deduces a new residual income model. This also paved the way for the next case study. Then, taking Vanke Group as an example, considering the business environment faced by enterprises and accounting data over the years, this paper uses the improved residual income model to evaluate the value. This paper calculates the equity value of the enterprise at December 31, 2016, and analyzes the reasons for the difference between the intrinsic value and the stock price. Finally, based on the case study, this paper draws three conclusions. Firstly, using the improved residual income model, the equity value of Vanke Group is estimated to be 213.9121261 billion yuan at December 31, 2016, which is 12.9424039 billion yuan lower than the actual market value, indicating that the stock price of Vanke Group at the end of that year is higher than the intrinsic value. Second, Vanke Group's intrinsic value is highly sensitive to asset turnover, equity multiplier, P / E ratio and earnings per share. Through multifactor sensitivity analysis, the most optimistic valuation of equity value of Vanke Group is 278.9989895 billion yuan, and the most pessimistic result is 141.2743874 billion yuan. Thirdly, the residual income model can scientifically evaluate the ability of enterprise value creation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣東工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.233.42

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本文編號：1999593