本文選題：房地產(chǎn)市場 + 住房財富效應(yīng)�。� 參考：《湘潭大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：自1998年住房商品化改革以來,我國房價經(jīng)歷了一個十分迅速的增長過程。一方面是飆漲的房價,另一方面則是日益下滑的居民消費,我國居民消費率近十年來一直處于下降趨勢,與發(fā)達(dá)國家相比仍然處于較低水平。在房價持續(xù)上漲、消費萎靡和我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展進(jìn)入“新常態(tài)”的大背景下,探討房價波動對居民消費的影響及其背后隱含的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)機(jī)理對于構(gòu)建擴(kuò)大居民消費需求的長效機(jī)制和成功跨越“中等收入陷阱”具有重要意義。再者,由于我國地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平的巨大差異,房價變動所帶來的住房財富效應(yīng)往往存在較強(qiáng)的區(qū)域特征,住房財富效應(yīng)的地區(qū)差異給房價調(diào)控和房地產(chǎn)政策的制定提出了巨大挑戰(zhàn),深入的考察住房財富效應(yīng)的區(qū)域差異及其原因?qū)τ谥贫ㄒ虻刂埔说恼{(diào)控政策十分重要。本文基于消費經(jīng)濟(jì)理論、住房財富效應(yīng)理論,利用35個大中城市2004年-2014年的宏觀年度數(shù)據(jù),借助FMOLS和門限面板回歸等面板數(shù)據(jù)模型研究我國房改10多年以來的城市住房財富效應(yīng)及其差異性。本文的主要研究結(jié)論如下:(1)整體來看,實證結(jié)果表明正向的住房財富效應(yīng)是存在的,房價的上漲會使得居民消費增加,表明住房財富效應(yīng)對居民消費能夠產(chǎn)生正向效應(yīng)。(2)從區(qū)域?qū)用鎭砜?東中西部城市的住房財富效應(yīng)存在顯著差異,東部城市的正向住房財富效應(yīng)最為強(qiáng)烈,西部城市次之,而中部城市的住房財富效應(yīng)是負(fù)向不顯著的。(3)門限面板回歸的結(jié)果表明,在不同的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平下,住房財富效應(yīng)存在明顯差異,表明房價變動所帶來的財富效應(yīng)對于居民消費的影響存在區(qū)間效應(yīng)。本文從區(qū)域和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平差異的視角考察了住房財富效應(yīng)的存在性及其地區(qū)差異性,并就如何制定差異化的房地產(chǎn)市場調(diào)控政策提出了具有針對性的政策建議。本文的研究結(jié)論為制定具有差異性和針對性的房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控政策和信貸政策提供了理論和數(shù)據(jù)支撐,對于促進(jìn)我國房地產(chǎn)市場的平穩(wěn)發(fā)展和居民消費的提升具有十分重要的現(xiàn)實意義。本文從宏觀角度分析我國自住房改革以來各大中城市住房財富效應(yīng)的存在性,特別是對地區(qū)差異性的研究是重點。根據(jù)現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)地理區(qū)域主觀劃分樣本存在的不足,本文以城市人均實際GDP水平作為門限變量,通過門限面板回歸考察經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平的差異對住房財富效應(yīng)的影響;本文收集了35個大中城市的相關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù),構(gòu)建面板數(shù)據(jù)模型,通過FMOLS模型解決了可能存在的內(nèi)生性問題,使估計結(jié)果更為準(zhǔn)確,實證結(jié)果也更具有說服力。
[Abstract]:Since the housing commercialization reform in 1998, China's housing prices have experienced a very rapid growth process. On the one hand, it is the soaring house price, on the other hand, the resident consumption is declining day by day. The consumption rate of our country has been on the downward trend in the past ten years, and it is still at a low level compared with the developed countries. Against the backdrop of rising house prices, sluggish consumption and the entering of a "new normal" in China's economic development, It is of great significance to explore the impact of house price fluctuation on residents' consumption and the underlying economic mechanism to construct a long-term mechanism to expand the consumption demand of residents and to successfully cross the "middle income trap". Furthermore, because of the huge difference in the level of regional economic development in China, the housing wealth effect brought about by the change of house prices often has strong regional characteristics. The regional difference of housing wealth effect poses a great challenge to the regulation of house price and the formulation of real estate policy. It is very important to investigate the regional difference of housing wealth effect and its causes in order to make the adjustment and control policy according to local conditions. Based on the theory of consumption economy and the theory of housing wealth effect, this paper uses the macro-annual data of 35 large and medium-sized cities from 2004 to 2014. With the help of FMOLS and threshold panel regression panel data model, this paper studies the urban housing wealth effect and its difference in China's housing reform for more than 10 years. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) as a whole, the empirical results show that the positive housing wealth effect exists, and that the rise of house prices will increase residents' consumption. It shows that housing wealth effect can produce positive effect on residents' consumption. (2) from the regional level, there are significant differences in housing wealth effect between east, west and west cities, while the positive housing wealth effect is the strongest in eastern cities, followed by western cities. However, the return of the threshold panel of the housing wealth effect of the central city is not significant. The results show that there are obvious differences in the housing wealth effect under the different economic development level. It shows that the wealth effect brought by the change of house price has an interval effect on residents' consumption. This paper examines the existence of housing wealth effect and its regional differences from the perspective of regional and economic development level differences, and puts forward targeted policy recommendations on how to formulate differentiated real estate market regulation and control policies. The research conclusions of this paper provide theoretical and data support for the formulation of different and targeted real estate regulation policies and credit policies. It is of great practical significance to promote the steady development of real estate market and the promotion of resident consumption. This paper analyzes the existence of housing wealth effect in large and medium-sized cities since the housing reform in China from a macro perspective, especially the research on regional differences is the focus. According to the shortcomings of the existing literature on the subjective division of geographical samples, this paper takes the actual GDP level of urban per capita as the threshold variable, through the threshold panel regression to investigate the impact of economic development level on the impact of housing wealth; This paper collects the relevant economic data of 35 large and medium-sized cities, constructs the panel data model, solves the possible endogenous problems by FMOLS model, makes the estimation results more accurate and the empirical results more convincing.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湘潭大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.23

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本文編號：1999140