【摘要】：高校財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問(wèn)題一直是引起社會(huì)廣泛關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn)問(wèn)題。從2009年開(kāi)始教育部、財(cái)政部出臺(tái)了高�；瘋�，政府化債工作的實(shí)施，在2012年底使多數(shù)公辦高校已經(jīng)化解了債務(wù)，銀行貸款基本清零。在高�；瘋耐瑫r(shí)，政府從制度和程序上也限定了高校新貸款的增加。但銀行債務(wù)清零或減少并不能阻止高校原有基本建設(shè)項(xiàng)目規(guī)劃的實(shí)施，高校建設(shè)費(fèi)用的支付出現(xiàn)了新的問(wèn)題。面對(duì)新的政策和新的情況，高校也由過(guò)去突出的債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)橐再Y金鏈斷裂為主的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 本文運(yùn)用數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)方法和系統(tǒng)分析方法，以某省省屬37所高校2011年和2012年的財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)為樣本進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)研究與指標(biāo)分析。首先，本文研究了在新的政策環(huán)境下省屬高校具有的新的財(cái)務(wù)現(xiàn)象，認(rèn)為在新的政策下高校的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不再是直接顯性的銀行貸款的債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，而是具有間接隱性的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，表現(xiàn)形式主要有融資渠道的非銀行性，借款方式的搭橋性，還貸資金的超前使用性，債務(wù)形式的隱蔽性等，具有形式隱蔽，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)極大的特性。其次，根據(jù)高校財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)類(lèi)型，分析了當(dāng)前高校財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)存在的原因。再者，根據(jù)高�；瘋蟮男虑闆r，在參考前人研究的基礎(chǔ)上，，建立了以考核應(yīng)付賬款、應(yīng)收賬款、基建負(fù)債等指標(biāo)為主的財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系，并采用因子分析方法建立了高校財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警模型，運(yùn)用數(shù)理統(tǒng)計(jì)理論對(duì)高校的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)類(lèi)型進(jìn)行了劃分。隨后，本文運(yùn)用支持向量機(jī)模型對(duì)高校財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證，通過(guò)實(shí)證分析證明了預(yù)警模型的有效性。最后，本文采用比較分析的方法，對(duì)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)高校出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題較多的十項(xiàng)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行了分析，提出了高校加強(qiáng)內(nèi)部審計(jì)監(jiān)察、規(guī)范財(cái)務(wù)核算、加大應(yīng)收賬款清理、控制基建規(guī)模和增加資金儲(chǔ)備等防范風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的建議與措施。
[Abstract]:The problem of financial risk in colleges and universities has always been a hot issue that has aroused widespread concern in the society. Since 2009, the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Finance has issued the policy of university debt, the implementation of government debt, in the end of 2012, the majority of public universities have resolved the debt, bank loans are basically zero. At the same time, the government limits the increase of new loans in institutions and procedures. However, the zero or reduction of bank debt can not prevent the implementation of the original capital construction project planning in colleges and universities, and new problems have emerged in the payment of university construction expenses. In the face of new policies and new situations, colleges and universities have also changed from the outstanding debt risk in the past to the financial risk based on the break of the capital chain. Based on the data of 37 colleges and universities in a province in 2011 and 2012, this paper makes a systematic research and index analysis with the methods of mathematical statistics and system analysis. First of all, this paper studies the new financial phenomenon in provincial colleges and universities under the new policy environment, and thinks that the financial risk of colleges and universities under the new policy is not the debt risk of direct and explicit bank loans, but the indirect and implicit financial risk. The main forms of expression include the non-bank of financing channels, the bridging of borrowing mode, the advanced use of loan repayment funds, the concealment of debt forms, and so on, which have the characteristics of hidden form and great risk. Secondly, according to the types of financial risks in colleges and universities, this paper analyzes the reasons for the existence of financial risks in colleges and universities. Furthermore, according to the new situation after the university's debt conversion, and on the basis of the previous studies, a financial early-warning index system is established to assess the indicators of accounts payable, accounts receivable, capital construction liabilities, and so on. The financial early-warning model of colleges and universities is established by using factor analysis method, and the risk types of colleges and universities are classified by mathematical statistics theory. Then, this paper uses the support vector machine model to verify the early warning of financial risk in colleges and universities, and proves the effectiveness of the early warning model through empirical analysis. Finally, this paper analyzes the ten indexes with more problems in risk universities by using the method of comparative analysis, and puts forward that colleges and universities should strengthen internal audit supervision, standardize financial accounting, and increase accounts receivable cleaning up. Control the scale of capital construction and increase capital reserves and other risk prevention recommendations and measures.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安建筑科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：G647.5

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