本文選題：區(qū)域差異 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)��； 參考：《經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題探索》2017年11期

【摘要】：經(jīng)濟(jì)和人口重心的軌跡變動(dòng)及空間耦合狀態(tài)集中反映了中國(guó)不同時(shí)段區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r及未來(lái)趨勢(shì),對(duì)制定區(qū)域協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展政策具有重大參考意義。借用力學(xué)中重心概念和重力模型,通過(guò)重心加權(quán)方法,探索中國(guó)1990-2014年間經(jīng)濟(jì)、產(chǎn)業(yè)和人口重心的時(shí)空演變路徑,并通過(guò)耦合"經(jīng)濟(jì)/產(chǎn)業(yè)-人口"重心的空間變動(dòng)過(guò)程探析經(jīng)濟(jì)和人口發(fā)展的協(xié)調(diào)程度,進(jìn)而探討區(qū)域協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)。發(fā)現(xiàn):(1)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)重心大致表現(xiàn)出先向東南又向西南移動(dòng)的宏觀態(tài)勢(shì),東西方向的區(qū)域發(fā)展差異有縮小趨勢(shì),但南北差異可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大。(2)1990年以來(lái),中國(guó)的三次產(chǎn)業(yè)重心時(shí)空格局均存在一定規(guī)律性:第一產(chǎn)業(yè)重心總體向西南移動(dòng);第二產(chǎn)業(yè)重心和經(jīng)濟(jì)重心時(shí)空格局相似,即先向東南繼而(2010年前后)向西(略偏南)移動(dòng),中西部地區(qū)承接?xùn)|部產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移的戰(zhàn)略措施初見(jiàn)成效;第三產(chǎn)業(yè)重心移動(dòng)幅度相對(duì)較小,且大體呈現(xiàn)逆時(shí)針環(huán)狀變動(dòng)趨勢(shì),東部沿海仍處于第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的高勢(shì)能區(qū)。(3)人口重心和經(jīng)濟(jì)重心、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)重心有靠近趨勢(shì),但和第一、第二產(chǎn)業(yè)重心有分離趨勢(shì),人口和經(jīng)濟(jì)的協(xié)調(diào)程度總體在增加。第三產(chǎn)業(yè)對(duì)人口的吸引力將遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)大于第一、第二產(chǎn)業(yè),是未來(lái)吸納人口的核心產(chǎn)業(yè)。
[Abstract]:The locus change and spatial coupling state of economic and population center of gravity reflect the regional economic development and future trend in different periods of time in China, which is of great reference significance to the formulation of regional coordinated development policy. By using the concept of gravity center and gravity model in mechanics, this paper explores the space-time evolution path of China's economic, industrial and population gravity center from 1990 to 2014 through the method of gravity weighting. By coupling the spatial change process of the center of gravity of "economy, industry and population", this paper probes into the coordinated degree of economic and population development, and then probes into the trend of regional coordinated development. It is found that the center of gravity of China's economy shows a macro trend of moving first to southeast and southwest, and the regional development difference in east-west direction has a trend of narrowing, but the north-south difference may further expand. 2) since 1990, The space-time pattern of the three industrial centers of gravity in China has certain regularity: the center of gravity of the primary industry generally moves to the southwest, the space-time pattern of the center of gravity of the second industry and the center of economic gravity is similar, that is, the center of gravity of the second industry moves first to the southeast and then (around 2010) to the west (slightly south). The strategic measures to undertake the industrial transfer in the east in the central and western regions have achieved initial results; the tertiary industry center of gravity has a relatively small moving range, and generally presents a trend of counter-clockwise circular change. The eastern coastal area is still in the high potential energy area of tertiary industry development. The population center of gravity and economic center of gravity, the center of gravity of the third industry is close to the trend, but with the first, the center of secondary industry has the tendency of separation, and the coordination degree of population and economy is on the whole increasing. The attraction of the tertiary industry to the population will be far greater than that of the first, and the second industry will be the core industry of absorbing the population in the future.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)科學(xué)院地理科學(xué)與資源研究所;中國(guó)科學(xué)院大學(xué)資源與環(huán)境學(xué)院;桂林航天工業(yè)學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目“中國(guó)現(xiàn)代人地關(guān)系演進(jìn)的資源環(huán)境基礎(chǔ)研究”(41430636),項(xiàng)目負(fù)責(zé)人:劉毅
【分類號(hào)】：F124

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