【摘要】：北京市作為首都,近年來,在快速發(fā)展的同時,“大城市病”問題日益突出。這在北京市教育行業(yè)發(fā)展中也得到了體現(xiàn),例如教育擁堵、資源不足、分配不均等。針對北京市教育行業(yè)發(fā)展存在的問題,《京津冀協(xié)同發(fā)展規(guī)劃綱要》(以下簡稱《綱要》)明確指出,教育作為非首都核心功能,需要疏解。同時,《綱要》也明確指出,疏解北京市教育的非核心功能應主要從以下兩點著手:嚴格控制增量和有序疏解存量。本文通過對未來北京市教育機構增長數(shù)量建立預測模型,使政府就未來增量可以定量分析,從而針對控制增量和疏解存量做出更加科學的決策,最終促進北京市教育未來可持續(xù)化發(fā)展。本文針對上述問題進行了研究,研究過程中所做的主要工作如下:第一,從信息分析角度對北京市教育發(fā)展情況相關信息進行搜集、整理和分析,分析北京市教育近年發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,進而對其現(xiàn)狀原因進行分析,并指出當前發(fā)展過程中存在的問題。第二,在信息預測方法中,使用基于改進的ARIMA模型作為本文的預測模型。針對本文使用的模型及其應用現(xiàn)狀進行了介紹,接著運用ARIMA模型和神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡組合模型,預測北京市教育機構數(shù)量的變化趨勢,并對預測結果進行評價。由于模型可以表達時間序列中的線性和非線性成分,其預測效果比單一模型更好,能更準確的預測出北京市教育機構數(shù)量。第三,在模型預測結果基礎上,結合北京市教育現(xiàn)狀分析,從優(yōu)化教育資源配置角度出發(fā),為未來北京教育機構數(shù)量如何控制和疏解提供政策建議。
[Abstract]:Beijing as the capital, in recent years, in the rapid development of the "big city disease" problem is increasingly prominent. This is also reflected in the development of the education industry in Beijing, such as education congestion, insufficient resources and unequal distribution. In view of the problems existing in the development of education industry in Beijing, the outline of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Cooperative Development Plan (hereinafter referred to as "outline") clearly points out that education, as the core function of non-capital, needs to be solved. At the same time, the outline also points out clearly that the non-core function of education in Beijing should be solved mainly from the following two aspects: strictly control the increment and the stock of orderly unwinding. Through the establishment of a forecast model for the future growth of educational institutions in Beijing, this paper makes the government make a more scientific decision on controlling the increment and unlocking the stock by making quantitative analysis on the future increment. Finally, it will promote the sustainable development of education in Beijing in the future. The main work of this paper is as follows: first, from the perspective of information analysis, we collect, collate and analyze the relevant information on the development of education in Beijing. This paper analyzes the present situation of education development in Beijing in recent years, and then analyzes the reasons for the present situation, and points out the problems existing in the current development process. Secondly, in the information prediction method, the improved ARIMA model is used as the prediction model in this paper. This paper introduces the models used in this paper and their application status, and then uses the ARIMA model and the neural network combination model to predict the change trend of the number of educational institutions in Beijing, and evaluates the prediction results. Because the model can express the linear and nonlinear components in the time series, its prediction effect is better than the single model, and it can more accurately predict the number of educational institutions in Beijing. Thirdly, on the basis of the forecast results of the model and the analysis of the present situation of education in Beijing, from the point of view of optimizing the allocation of educational resources, this paper provides policy suggestions on how to control and solve the number of educational institutions in Beijing in the future.
【學位授予單位】：華中師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：G527

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