【摘要】：貨幣政策對于貨幣穩(wěn)定以及對金融穩(wěn)定的意義非同尋常，貨幣政策如何關(guān)注資產(chǎn)價格決定了貨幣政策對經(jīng)濟(jì)的調(diào)控效率以及經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定性的影響。把資產(chǎn)價格納入到IS-LM-PC模型，通過構(gòu)建貨幣穩(wěn)定指數(shù)和以貨幣穩(wěn)定和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長為目標(biāo)的貨幣政策損失函數(shù)，結(jié)果表明：把貨幣穩(wěn)定指數(shù)表示為通貨膨脹率，資產(chǎn)價格的波動率與匯率的加權(quán)平均值，能更加準(zhǔn)確的表達(dá)貨幣金融狀況。最優(yōu)的貨幣政策規(guī)則其中包含最優(yōu)利率規(guī)則和最優(yōu)貨幣供給量的規(guī)則，它們不但要關(guān)注資產(chǎn)價格，，而且還能夠比較精確地將它們納入到規(guī)則體系中。 利用中國1993年1季度-2012年2季度的數(shù)據(jù)結(jié)合VAR法、廣義矩估計法（GMM）、狀態(tài)空間可變參數(shù)法通過實證檢驗我們得出：中國的利率政策和貨幣供給量主要對產(chǎn)出增長的關(guān)注度最高，產(chǎn)出增長也一直是中國貨幣政策的核心關(guān)注目標(biāo)，但對已股市、房地產(chǎn)等資產(chǎn)價格反應(yīng)卻不明顯，說明中央銀行并沒有對資產(chǎn)價格波動等因素給予足夠的關(guān)注而于此同時央行的貨幣政策對匯率關(guān)注非常明顯。 在貨幣政策操作規(guī)則上中央銀行沒有公開申明要遵循利率規(guī)則，但所實施的一系列貨幣政策操作手段卻和最優(yōu)的利率規(guī)則比較符合，而且在以貨幣供給量中介目標(biāo)制下，能看出最優(yōu)貨幣供給量規(guī)則特征，且兩者在現(xiàn)實中表現(xiàn)穩(wěn)定性和協(xié)調(diào)一致性。不過目前我國的貨幣政策在前瞻性方面還沒能夠做出顯著的成績。因此我國貨幣政策還應(yīng)加強(qiáng)調(diào)控的力度并且改善操作的均衡性,從而維護(hù)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的長期平穩(wěn)增長。
[Abstract]:The significance of monetary policy to monetary stability and financial stability is extraordinary. How monetary policy pays attention to asset prices determines the effect of monetary policy on economic regulation efficiency and economic stability. Taking asset price into IS-LM-PC model and constructing monetary stability index and monetary policy loss function aiming at monetary stability and economic growth, the result shows that monetary stability index is expressed as inflation rate. The volatility of asset price and the weighted average of exchange rate can express the monetary and financial situation more accurately. The optimal monetary policy rules include the optimal interest rate rule and the optimal money supply rule. They should not only pay attention to the asset price, but also integrate them into the rule system more accurately. Using the data of China from the first quarter of 1993 to the second quarter of 2012 combined with the VAR method, the generalized moment estimation method, (GMM), state space variable parameter method, through empirical test, we conclude that China's interest rate policy and money supply mainly focus on output growth. Output growth has also been a central focus of China's monetary policy, but the response to asset prices such as the stock market and real estate has not been apparent. This suggests that central banks are not paying enough attention to factors such as asset price volatility, while central bank monetary policy has a clear focus on exchange rates. On the operational rules of monetary policy, the central bank has not publicly stated that it should abide by the interest rate rules, but the series of monetary policy operations carried out are in line with the optimal interest rate rules, and under the target system of monetary supply intermediation, The characteristics of the optimal money supply rules can be seen, and they are stable and consistent in reality. However, China's monetary policy in the forward-looking aspects have not been able to make significant achievements. Therefore, the monetary policy of our country should strengthen the regulation and control and improve the balance of operation, so as to maintain the long-term steady growth of the macro economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F822.0;F832.5;F224

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