本文選題：資產(chǎn)價(jià)格 + 宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)��； 參考：《暨南大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：20世紀(jì)70年代以來(lái)，盡管通脹率不高，但金融危機(jī)頻發(fā)。每次危機(jī)后，各國(guó)貨幣當(dāng)局會(huì)采取寬松貨幣政策刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，但本次次貸危機(jī)后寬松貨幣政策效果不好，有學(xué)者對(duì)西方現(xiàn)行貨幣政策框架提出質(zhì)疑。資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)是否應(yīng)納入貨幣政策制定因素，成為關(guān)注焦點(diǎn)。 為研究中國(guó)貨幣當(dāng)局制定貨幣政策時(shí)是否要考慮資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)，本文首先考察中國(guó)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)。因?yàn)橹贫ㄘ泿耪邥r(shí)考慮資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的前提，是資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)會(huì)顯著影響宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)。 本文主要?jiǎng)?chuàng)新在于考察資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)時(shí)，考慮了中國(guó)資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)變革的背景。本文以2004年12月為分界點(diǎn)對(duì)比研究，考察資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)經(jīng)歷變革后資產(chǎn)價(jià)格對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響是否更顯著。實(shí)證結(jié)果顯示，隨著中國(guó)資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)化程度提高，資產(chǎn)價(jià)格對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響越發(fā)顯著。 因此，當(dāng)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格劇烈波動(dòng)時(shí)，中國(guó)貨幣當(dāng)局需調(diào)控資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)，但采用何種工具調(diào)控仍有待研究。部分學(xué)者提出貨幣政策工具調(diào)控資產(chǎn)價(jià)格有效。為此，本文構(gòu)建SVAR模型分析貨幣政策對(duì)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響。實(shí)證結(jié)果顯示，貨幣政策調(diào)控股價(jià)、房?jī)r(jià)有效，且貨幣政策在股價(jià)膨脹時(shí)期調(diào)控力度更大。但由于貨幣政策對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)影響廣泛深遠(yuǎn)，，中國(guó)貨幣當(dāng)局制定貨幣政策時(shí)應(yīng)權(quán)衡成本收益。
[Abstract]:Since the 1970 s, despite low inflation, financial crises have occurred frequently. After each crisis, monetary authorities around the world adopt loose monetary policies to stimulate economic recovery, but the effect of easing monetary policy after the subprime mortgage crisis has not been good, and some scholars have questioned the current monetary policy framework in the West. Whether asset price volatility should be incorporated into monetary policy-making factors has become the focus of attention. In order to study whether the Chinese monetary authorities should consider the fluctuation of asset price when making monetary policy, this paper first examines the macroeconomic effect of asset price fluctuation in China. The premise of considering asset prices in monetary policy is that asset price fluctuations significantly affect macroeconomic stability. The main innovation of this paper is to examine the macroeconomic effect of asset price and consider the background of Chinese asset market reform. Based on a comparative study of December 2004, this paper investigates whether asset prices have a more significant impact on the macro economy after asset market changes. The empirical results show that the impact of asset prices on macro-economy becomes more and more significant with the increase of asset marketization in China. Therefore, when asset prices fluctuate violently, China's monetary authorities need to regulate asset price volatility, but what instruments to adopt is still to be studied. Some scholars suggest that monetary policy instruments are effective in regulating asset prices. Therefore, this paper constructs SVAR model to analyze the impact of monetary policy on asset prices. The empirical results show that monetary policy is effective in controlling stock price and house price, and monetary policy is more powerful in the period of stock price expansion. But as monetary policy has far-reaching macroeconomic implications, China's monetary authorities should weigh cost gains when making monetary policy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：暨南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.5;F822.0

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本文編號(hào)：1855187