發(fā)布時間：2018-04-22 09:26

  本文選題：資本管制 + 國際經(jīng)驗　； 參考：《江西財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：2008年金融危機結(jié)束后，有學(xué)者研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，新一輪國際資本正悄然升溫并進入新興經(jīng)濟體。隨著我國資本項目可兌換進程的步伐加快，加之國內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟形勢的深刻變化，我國資本管制的有效性并不高。短期來看，歐債危機帶來的避險情緒以及匯率、利率等因素引發(fā)的資本外逃現(xiàn)象明顯；長期來看，發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體新一輪量化寬松政策（美國、日本和英國）以及中國經(jīng)濟的軟著陸，未來中國將重新面臨資本流入的局面。 本文分析了資本管制的國際經(jīng)驗和在中國的實踐，借鑒了資本管制在新興市場國家的三種成功模式，估算了我國資本管制有效性的靜態(tài)和動態(tài)參數(shù)，發(fā)現(xiàn)了規(guī)避我國資本管制的渠道，最后提出了提高我國資本管制有效性的政策措施。 最近一次全球資本流動具有波動大、范圍廣、相關(guān)性強、結(jié)構(gòu)差異明顯等特點；IMF提出的資本流動管理政策確實為管理全球資本流動指明了方向，但同時存在一系列問題（缺乏對流動性制造國以及資本外逃的討論等）；通過分析學(xué)者對研究資本管制效果的文獻發(fā)現(xiàn)，資本管制在改變資本流動的結(jié)構(gòu)以及保持貨幣政策獨立性上起到了很好的作用，但在控制資本流動總體規(guī)模方面存在較大爭議，資本管制對抑制匯率波動基本無效。新興市場國家在使用資本管制的工具大體分為數(shù)量型和價格型兩類，通過引入關(guān)稅和配額概念得出數(shù)量型管制的剛性約束更強，但存在的弊端也更加明顯，應(yīng)該以價格型管制為主，數(shù)量型管制為輔作為資本管制的主要方式；最后分析了價格型資本管制的三種模式，其中巴西的金融交易稅模式和馬來西亞的資本所得稅模式分別是控制資本流入和資本外逃的成功模式，值得學(xué)習(xí)和借鑒，而智利的無息準備金（URR）模式對改變資本流入的結(jié)構(gòu)起到重要作用。 在資本管制的中國實踐中，目前我國現(xiàn)行的資本管制框架包括直接投資、證券投資和信貸業(yè)務(wù)三個方面，分為對跨境資本交易（包括轉(zhuǎn)移支付）和匯兌活動的限制兩個環(huán)節(jié)，當(dāng)前我國的資本項目可兌換程度已大幅提高，基本可兌換和部分可兌換的比例占到90%，嚴格的資本管制僅占10%；通過儲蓄-投資法建立投資率和儲蓄率的誤差修正模型，得出我國資本管制短期內(nèi)效果較好，長期效果較低的結(jié)論；通過Edward-Khan模型對我國資本管制有效性進行靜態(tài)估計，得出2000以來我國的資本管制有效性較低（僅為0.226），通過Khan濾波技術(shù)發(fā)現(xiàn)我國的資本管制有效性在2002年前呈上升趨勢，但2002年以后，隨著我國資本項目的逐步放開，資本管制效果大幅下降。2008年金融危機前后，我國資本管制有效性曾出現(xiàn)小幅上升趨勢，但金融危機給投資者帶來的避險情緒高漲，短期資本紛紛逃離國內(nèi)轉(zhuǎn)向購買美國政府債券，因此近年來資本管制效果不理想。逃避我國資本管制的渠道包括直接投資方式、QFII渠道和短期外債三種方式；通過月度新增外匯占款、季度儲備資產(chǎn)和季度資本與金融項目凈值發(fā)現(xiàn)近期我國出現(xiàn)了資本外逃現(xiàn)象，造成資本外逃的原因是多方面的，資本外逃將給中國帶來負面影響。 面對短期資本的大量流入，在宏觀經(jīng)濟政策層面，可以削弱人民幣單邊升值預(yù)期，增強人民幣匯率雙向波動性；通過降息以縮小中美利差；通過轉(zhuǎn)變對資本流入沖銷干預(yù)的方式，由被動干預(yù)向主動干預(yù)轉(zhuǎn)變；嘗試著使用無息準備金制度。在金融機構(gòu)層面，可以實施宏觀審慎政策，必要的時候可以引入資本管制措施。在非金融機構(gòu)層面，可以采取資本管制措施，減少外債的使用，減少無對沖能力企業(yè)的外匯借款，減少非金融部門的境外直接借款。最后應(yīng)形成區(qū)域和全球機制，防止出現(xiàn)以鄰為壑的局面。 要解決近來出現(xiàn)的資本外逃現(xiàn)象，就必須保持良好的國內(nèi)宏觀經(jīng)濟基本面，深入推進“兩率”改革；建立跨境資本流動預(yù)警體系，準確、及時地報告資本急停和資本外逃現(xiàn)象；采取資本管制措施，，審批和監(jiān)測居民的海外投資和外匯賬戶的操作，對特定部門和行業(yè)進行保護，限制或禁止外資進行投資，并且對資本外逃征收資本所得稅等措施；應(yīng)建立全球流動性管理和互助機制，范圍由國別→雙邊→區(qū)域→全球依次遞進，為陷入歐債危機的國家提供幫助，防止國家出現(xiàn)系統(tǒng)性破產(chǎn)和歐債危機的進一步蔓延，促進全球經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇。
[Abstract]:After the end of the 2008 financial crisis , scholars have found that the new round of international capital is gradually warming and entering emerging economies . With the rapid pace of the convertible process of capital projects in China and the profound changes in the economic situation at home and abroad , the effectiveness of our capital controls is not high . In the short term , capital flight caused by the European debt crisis and the exchange rate and interest rate are obvious ;
In the long run , a new round of quantitative easing in developed economies ( the United States , Japan and the United Kingdom ) , as well as the soft landing of the Chinese economy , will face capital inflows in the future .

This paper analyzes the international experience of capital control and the practice in China , and draws lessons from the three successful models of capital control in emerging market countries , estimates the static and dynamic parameters of the effectiveness of capital control in China , and finds out the channel to avoid China ' s capital control , and finally puts forward the policy measures to improve the effectiveness of capital control in China .

The latest global capital flow has the characteristics of large fluctuation , wide range , strong correlation and obvious structural difference .
The IMF ' s policy of capital flow management did specify the direction for managing global capital flows , but there were a number of issues ( lack of discussion on the flow of manufacturing countries and capital flight ) ;
Capital control plays a good role in changing the structure of capital flow and maintaining the independence of monetary policy .
Finally , the three modes of price - based capital control are analyzed , in which the financial transaction tax model of Brazil and the capital income tax model of Malaysia are the successful models of controlling capital inflow and capital flight , which are worth learning and reference , while Chile ' s non - interest reserve ( URR ) model plays an important role in changing the structure of capital inflow .

In China ' s practice of capital control , China ' s current capital control framework includes three aspects of direct investment , securities investment and credit business , which are divided into two links to cross - border capital transactions ( including transfer payment ) and exchange activity , and the convertible degree of capital projects in our country has been greatly improved , the proportion of basic convertible and partially convertible currencies accounts for 90 % , and strict capital control accounts for only 10 % ;
By using savings - investment method to establish an error correction model of investment rate and savings rate , it is concluded that China ' s capital control short - term effect is good and the long - term effect is low ;
By using the Edward - Khan model , the effectiveness of capital control in China is estimated to be low ( 0.226 only 0.226 ) . With the gradual liberalization of China ' s capital projects , the effect of capital control has declined significantly since the financial crisis .
Through the monthly new foreign exchange occupation , the quarterly reserve assets and the quarterly capital and financial net worth , it is found that the phenomenon of capital flight has recently occurred in our country , and the causes of capital flight are manifold , and capital flight will have a negative impact on China .

Facing the large inflow of short - term capital , at the macro - economic policy level , we can weaken the expectation of RMB single - side appreciation and enhance the bi - directional volatility of RMB exchange rate ;
By reducing the interest rates to narrow the gap between China and the United States ;
By changing the way to the capital inflow reversal intervention , the passive intervention shifts from the active intervention to the active intervention ;
Try to use an interest - free reserve system . A macro - prudential policy can be implemented at the financial institutions level . Capital control measures can be introduced when necessary . At the non - financial institutions level , capital control measures can be adopted to reduce foreign debt , reduce foreign exchange borrowing by non - financial sectors , and reduce foreign direct borrowing by non - financial sectors . Finally , regional and global mechanisms should be formed to prevent a beggar - thy - neighbour .

To solve the recent phenomenon of capital flight , we must keep good domestic macroeconomic fundamentals and push forward the reform of " two rates " .
Establish an early warning system of cross - border capital flow , report the capital emergency stop and capital flight phenomenon accurately and timely ;
Take capital control measures to approve and monitor the operation of the residents ' overseas investment and foreign exchange accounts , protect the specific departments and industries , restrict or prohibit the investment of foreign capital , and impose capital income tax on capital flight ;
Global liquidity management and mutual assistance mechanisms should be established , ranging from country to bilateral 鈫

本文編號：1786614