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鐵礦石定價(jià)金融化及其策略研究

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-04-03 14:45

  本文選題:鐵礦石 切入點(diǎn):定價(jià)金融化 出處:《江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文


【摘要】:自2010年以來,國(guó)際礦業(yè)集團(tuán)先后放棄鐵礦石交易的長(zhǎng)期協(xié)議定價(jià)機(jī)制,施行與國(guó)際鐵礦石現(xiàn)貨定價(jià)密切聯(lián)系的短期定價(jià)方式,推動(dòng)鐵礦石定價(jià)機(jī)制向金融化方向快速過渡。鐵礦石定價(jià)金融化加大了國(guó)際鐵礦石價(jià)格波動(dòng),增加了中國(guó)鋼企經(jīng)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),壓縮了鋼企利潤(rùn),強(qiáng)化了整個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈上下游的價(jià)格波動(dòng),對(duì)中國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)帶來了重大影響。面對(duì)目前國(guó)際鐵礦石定價(jià)金融化迅速發(fā)展的態(tài)勢(shì),深入探討其形成原因及對(duì)我國(guó)鐵礦石進(jìn)口成本的影響,并在此基礎(chǔ)上提出相關(guān)對(duì)策建議,對(duì)于我國(guó)維護(hù)鐵礦石的貿(mào)易利益,促進(jìn)鋼鐵行業(yè)健康發(fā)展具有重要現(xiàn)實(shí)意義,也是本文研究的主旨所在。 全文除導(dǎo)論外共分五部分: 第一部分為鐵礦石國(guó)際供求格局與中國(guó)進(jìn)口概況分析,主要從供求兩方面對(duì)鐵礦石國(guó)際格局進(jìn)行客觀剖析,并在此基礎(chǔ)上,著重研究了中國(guó)近年來鐵礦石進(jìn)口情況,研究發(fā)現(xiàn)國(guó)際鐵礦石交易市場(chǎng)總體上表現(xiàn)為供大于求,中國(guó)鐵礦石進(jìn)口依存度長(zhǎng)期居高不下,在國(guó)際鐵礦石定價(jià)金融化趨勢(shì)下,鐵礦石價(jià)格波動(dòng)加劇將不利于中國(guó)鋼企對(duì)進(jìn)口鐵礦石成本的控制,不利于中國(guó)鋼鐵行業(yè)穩(wěn)定發(fā)展。 第二部分是鐵礦石定價(jià)機(jī)制演化歷程與定價(jià)金融化的具體表現(xiàn)。該部分首先從歷史角度對(duì)1981年以來鐵礦石定價(jià)機(jī)制的演化軌跡進(jìn)行了梳理,,繼而重點(diǎn)探討了近年來鐵礦石定價(jià)金融化具體表現(xiàn)。文章認(rèn)為演化歷程主要分為兩個(gè)階段:1981-2010年長(zhǎng)協(xié)定價(jià)與現(xiàn)貨定價(jià)共存;2010年至今短期定價(jià)與現(xiàn)貨定價(jià)混合。結(jié)合前述文獻(xiàn)綜述中理論界對(duì)金融化的定義,文章界定鐵礦石定價(jià)金融化的具體表現(xiàn)為:由傳統(tǒng)商品定價(jià)機(jī)制向指數(shù)定價(jià)機(jī)制轉(zhuǎn)變;由商品市場(chǎng)向金融市場(chǎng)延伸;由實(shí)體主體向資本主體擴(kuò)展。僅就國(guó)內(nèi)鐵礦石定價(jià)金融化現(xiàn)狀而言,中國(guó)鐵礦石定價(jià)金融化現(xiàn)象主要體現(xiàn)在鐵礦石定價(jià)的指數(shù)化短期定價(jià)機(jī)制。 第三部分集中研究鐵礦石定價(jià)金融化的原因。該部分指出鐵礦石定價(jià)金融化主要原因是鐵礦石自身金融性的體現(xiàn),壟斷礦商的傾力助推以及金融資本的利益驅(qū)動(dòng)。 第四部分以鐵礦石價(jià)格指數(shù)化為例,在深入研究國(guó)內(nèi)外各類鐵礦石價(jià)格指數(shù)編制機(jī)理、價(jià)格波動(dòng)及其相關(guān)性的基礎(chǔ)上,判斷對(duì)國(guó)際鐵礦石交易價(jià)格最具影響的價(jià)格指數(shù),并就其對(duì)我國(guó)鐵礦石進(jìn)口成本的影響進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。文中得出結(jié)論:普氏指數(shù)對(duì)其他指數(shù)的影響力最大,它的波動(dòng)可以解釋TSI指數(shù)和MBIO指數(shù)的波動(dòng),TSI指數(shù)的影響力次之,即TSI指數(shù)可以解釋MBIO指數(shù),由此得出,三種影響力關(guān)系為:普氏指數(shù)TSI指數(shù)MBIO指數(shù)。將普氏指數(shù)與CIOPI和Mysteel-IpiC進(jìn)行相關(guān)性比較,得出Mysteel-IpiC的變動(dòng)更能被普氏指數(shù)解釋。最后采用普氏指數(shù)來測(cè)算鐵礦石定價(jià)金融化對(duì)中國(guó)鐵礦石進(jìn)口成本的影響,并得出在過去的一年中其影響是負(fù)面的。 第五部分是結(jié)論,主要從宏觀、中觀及微觀三大層面對(duì)我國(guó)如何應(yīng)對(duì)鐵礦石定價(jià)金融化提出了相關(guān)對(duì)策建議。文章認(rèn)為宏觀政府層面應(yīng)制定政策促進(jìn)“走出去”戰(zhàn)略,建立健全鐵礦石金融市場(chǎng)和金融資本參與機(jī)制;中觀層面要求中國(guó)鋼鐵協(xié)會(huì)等機(jī)構(gòu)應(yīng)不遺余力地縮短CIOPI編制時(shí)間,擴(kuò)大價(jià)格收集渠道,科學(xué)化CIOPI價(jià)格計(jì)算,加大媒體獨(dú)立第三方參與;微觀層面要求鋼企應(yīng)進(jìn)行充分的自我評(píng)估,選擇合適的鐵礦石價(jià)格指數(shù),培養(yǎng)、儲(chǔ)備復(fù)合型管理人才。
[Abstract]:Since 2010 , the international mining group has given up the long - term agreement pricing mechanism of iron ore transactions , and put into effect a short - term pricing way that is closely related to the current pricing of international iron ore . The pricing of iron ore increases the price fluctuation of international iron ore , increases the profit of steel enterprise , strengthens the price fluctuation of the whole industry chain , and puts forward relevant countermeasures . It is of great practical significance to maintain the trade interests of iron ore in our country and promote the healthy development of iron and steel industry .

The full text is divided into five parts except the introduction theory :

The first part is divided into the international supply and demand pattern of iron ore and the analysis of China ' s import profile . On the basis of this , the paper focuses on the objective analysis of the international pattern of iron ore from two aspects : supply and demand .

The second part is the evolution course of the iron ore pricing mechanism and the concrete performance of pricing finance . The part firstly sorts out the evolution track of the iron ore pricing mechanism since 1981 from the historical perspective , and then focuses on the concrete performance of the pricing of iron ore in recent years .
According to the definition of the theory circle in the literature review , the article defines the concrete performance of the pricing of iron ore : the transition from the traditional commodity pricing mechanism to the index pricing mechanism ;
extending from commodity markets to financial markets ;
According to the current situation of domestic iron ore pricing , China ' s iron ore pricing financial phenomenon mainly embodies the exponential short - term pricing mechanism of iron ore pricing .

The third part focuses on the reasons for the finalisation of iron ore pricing . This part points out that the main reason for the pricing of iron ore is the reflection of the financial nature of iron ore , the inclination of monopoly miners and the interest drive of financial capital .

In the fourth part , the price index of iron ore price index is taken as an example . Based on the study of the mechanism , price fluctuation and its correlation of the price index of iron ore at home and abroad , it is concluded that the influence of the price index and MBIO index on the international iron ore trade price can be explained .

The fifth part is the conclusion , mainly from the macro , meso and micro three levels to the country how to deal with the iron ore pricing finance put forward the relevant countermeasure suggestion . The article thinks that the macro government level should formulate the policy to promote the " go out " strategy , establish and improve the financial market and financial capital participation mechanism of iron ore ;
At the meso level , Chinese steel associations and other institutions should spare no effort to shorten CIOPI preparation time , expand the channel of price collection , scientific CIOPI price calculation , and increase the participation of independent third parties of the media ;
The micro level requires the steel enterprise to conduct a full self - assessment , select the appropriate price index of iron ore , cultivate and reserve compound management talent .

【學(xué)位授予單位】:江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2013
【分類號(hào)】:F426.1;F832.5

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