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  本文選題：金融資產(chǎn)價格　切入點：通貨膨脹　出處：《安徽財經(jīng)大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來,隨著金融市場的不斷發(fā)展和成熟,居民資產(chǎn)中金融資產(chǎn)的比重不斷提升,且金融資產(chǎn)的結(jié)構(gòu)趨向多元化發(fā)展,銀行存款占比趨于下降,其他金融資產(chǎn)投資比重日益提高。金融資產(chǎn)比重的提升及結(jié)構(gòu)的日趨多元化,使得金融資產(chǎn)價格的波動對居民生活和宏觀經(jīng)濟的影響不斷加大。同時,實體經(jīng)濟在運行中會不斷受到通貨膨脹的困擾,在此背景下,研究金融資產(chǎn)價格波動如何影響通貨膨脹,是一個非常具有現(xiàn)實意義的重要命題。 文章在借鑒大量文獻的基礎(chǔ)上,闡述了金融資產(chǎn)價格波動的原因以及通貨膨脹的相關(guān)理論,總結(jié)出金融資產(chǎn)價格波動影響通貨膨脹的傳導機制。然后,文章選用2002年10月至2012年4月間的月度數(shù)據(jù)對四大金融資產(chǎn)價格指標以及通貨膨脹指數(shù)的變動情況進行了歷史性描述。為建立VAR模型,文章對選取的數(shù)據(jù)進行了平穩(wěn)性檢驗,之后通過脈沖響應(yīng)和方差分解分析了金融資產(chǎn)價格波動對通貨膨脹的影響。實證檢驗結(jié)果表明：第一,金價、股價、匯率、利率的變動對通貨膨脹均存在影響,其中利率的影響最為顯著；第二,匯率與通貨膨脹之間的變動關(guān)系存在不穩(wěn)定性,偶爾會出現(xiàn)反向變動,而金價、股價、利率則與通貨膨脹呈正向變動關(guān)系；第三,金融資產(chǎn)價格的波動對通脹的影響存在滯后性。 最后,文章基于實證檢驗結(jié)果,提出通過調(diào)節(jié)金融資產(chǎn)價格來抑制通貨膨脹的相關(guān)政策建議：貨幣政策應(yīng)適度考慮金融資產(chǎn)價格的波動；加強長短利率的調(diào)節(jié),推動利率市場化改革；抑制過度投機,減少資本市場中的虛假成分；靈活運用匯率工具,穩(wěn)定人民幣升值預(yù)期；完善黃金交易市場,注重風險防范。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the continuous development and maturity of the financial market, the proportion of financial assets in residents' assets is increasing, and the structure of financial assets tends to diversify, and the proportion of bank deposits tends to decline.The proportion of other financial assets investment is increasing day by day.With the increase of the proportion of financial assets and the increasing diversification of structure, the fluctuation of financial asset prices has a growing impact on the residents' lives and macro economy.At the same time, the real economy will be constantly troubled by inflation in its operation. Under this background, it is an important proposition with practical significance to study how the fluctuation of financial asset price affects inflation.Based on a large number of literatures, this paper expounds the causes of financial asset price fluctuation and the related theories of inflation, and summarizes the transmission mechanism of financial asset price fluctuation affecting inflation.Then, the paper uses the monthly data from October 2002 to April 2012 to make a historical description of the changes of the four major financial asset price indicators and inflation indices.In order to establish the VAR model, this paper tests the smoothness of the selected data, and then analyzes the effect of financial asset price fluctuation on inflation by impulse response and variance decomposition.The empirical results show that: first, the changes of gold price, stock price, exchange rate and interest rate all have an impact on inflation, among which the influence of interest rate is the most significant; second, the relationship between exchange rate and inflation is unstable.Occasionally reverse movements occur, while gold, stock prices and interest rates are positively correlated with inflation; third, the impact of volatility in financial asset prices on inflation is lagging.Finally, based on the empirical results, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to control inflation by adjusting the price of financial assets: monetary policy should consider the fluctuation of the price of financial assets, and the adjustment of interest rate should be strengthened.Promote the reform of interest rate marketization; restrain excessive speculation and reduce the false elements in the capital market; use flexible exchange rate tools to stabilize the expectation of RMB appreciation; perfect the gold trading market and pay attention to risk prevention.
【學位授予單位】：安徽財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.5;F822.0

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本文編號：1704316