本文選題：后金融危機(jī)　切入點(diǎn)：國(guó)際熱錢　出處：《南昌大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：2007年美國(guó)爆發(fā)了影響深遠(yuǎn)的次貸危機(jī),2011年歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)問(wèn)題加劇了危機(jī)的復(fù)雜性,全球金融市場(chǎng)震蕩,國(guó)際熱錢問(wèn)題再次成為研究熱點(diǎn)。在人民幣升值預(yù)期和中美利差的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)下我國(guó)受到較大的熱錢沖擊壓力,熱錢大規(guī)模地交替流動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)證券市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生了大幅波動(dòng)。本文旨在通過(guò)相關(guān)研究得出如何在后金融危機(jī)時(shí)期防范國(guó)際熱錢對(duì)我國(guó)證券市場(chǎng)的沖擊。 本文研究思路圍繞“理論—現(xiàn)狀—機(jī)理—實(shí)證—對(duì)策”展開(kāi),并采用了比較分析、文獻(xiàn)研究、規(guī)范與實(shí)證相結(jié)合的方法。先通過(guò)國(guó)際熱錢基本理論的介紹,提出本文研究的問(wèn)題,引申出后金融危機(jī)時(shí)期國(guó)際熱錢在我國(guó)流動(dòng)的現(xiàn)狀。緊接著,分別運(yùn)用直接和間接作用機(jī)理剖析了國(guó)際熱錢如何對(duì)證券市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生影響,較全面地闡述了國(guó)際熱錢帶來(lái)的正面效應(yīng)：提高證券市場(chǎng)流動(dòng)性、運(yùn)作效率和推動(dòng)金融市場(chǎng)一體化,負(fù)面效應(yīng)包括引起股價(jià)大幅波動(dòng)和增加證券市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。然后利用Granger因果檢驗(yàn)法和VAR模型驗(yàn)證得出：(1)熱錢流入或流出會(huì)推動(dòng)股票指數(shù)的上升或下降；(2)證券市場(chǎng)的收益率變動(dòng)會(huì)引起熱錢流動(dòng)。最后提出了應(yīng)對(duì)熱錢問(wèn)題的五點(diǎn)策略及建議：加強(qiáng)渠道監(jiān)管,合理引導(dǎo)和管理熱錢,加強(qiáng)證券市場(chǎng)建設(shè),建立熱錢的預(yù)警應(yīng)急機(jī)制,推動(dòng)國(guó)際金融合作。
[Abstract]:In 2007, the United States broke out a far-reaching subprime mortgage crisis. In 2011, the European sovereign debt problem aggravated the complexity of the crisis, and the global financial markets were volatile. The international hot money issue has once again become a hot topic of study. Under the expectation of RMB appreciation and the economic situation of China-US interest rate differentials, China is under greater pressure from hot money shocks. The exchange of hot money on a large scale has caused large fluctuations in China's securities market. This paper aims to find out how to prevent the impact of international hot money on China's securities market in the post-financial crisis period. This paper focuses on "Theory-current situation-mechanism-positivist-countermeasure", and adopts the methods of comparative analysis, literature research, norm and demonstration. First, through the introduction of the basic theory of international hot money, Put forward the question that this article studies, extend the current situation of international hot money flow in our country in the post-financial crisis period. Then, we analyze how international hot money affects the securities market by using direct and indirect action mechanism, respectively. The positive effects of international hot money are described in a more comprehensive way: improving the liquidity of the securities market, operating efficiency and promoting the integration of financial markets, The negative effects include causing the stock price to fluctuate substantially and increasing the risk of the stock market. Then using the Granger causality test and the VAR model to verify that the inflow or outflow of hot money will push the stock index up or down. The change of profit rate will cause hot money flow. Finally, the paper puts forward five strategies and suggestions to deal with hot money problem: strengthening channel supervision, We should rationally guide and manage hot money, strengthen the construction of the securities market, establish a mechanism for early warning and emergency response of hot money, and promote international financial cooperation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南昌大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51

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本文編號(hào)：1581157