本文關(guān)鍵詞：含有營(yíng)銷變量的BASS模型研究　出處：《北京郵電大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： BASS模型 參數(shù)估計(jì) 實(shí)證研究 營(yíng)銷變量 價(jià)格函數(shù) 最優(yōu)價(jià)格策略

【摘要】：20世紀(jì)60年代以來,隨著創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散理論的不斷深入研究,擴(kuò)散模型在市場(chǎng)規(guī)模預(yù)測(cè)、產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散過程的預(yù)測(cè)中的應(yīng)用引起了國內(nèi)外學(xué)者的廣泛關(guān)注,也不斷有形形色色的新的創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散模型的提出。其中,最著名的是Frank.M. BASS在1969年提出的BASS模型,此后該模型成為擴(kuò)散模型的主要研究方向之一,并廣泛應(yīng)用于汽車、通信、互聯(lián)網(wǎng)以及電子商務(wù)等產(chǎn)品的市場(chǎng)預(yù)測(cè)。 BASS首次提出該擴(kuò)散模型時(shí),為了便于微分方程的求解,提出了一系列的假設(shè),例如產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散過程中,最大市場(chǎng)潛力不變、產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散不受價(jià)格等營(yíng)銷變量的影響等,但后來隨著對(duì)產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散過程以及擴(kuò)散模型研究的不斷深入,國內(nèi)學(xué)者不斷放寬BASS模型的假設(shè)條件,每個(gè)假設(shè)條件的修正都是BASS模型的一個(gè)改進(jìn)方向。例如,人們逐漸認(rèn)識(shí)到營(yíng)銷因素對(duì)產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散過程具有重要的影響,而BASS基礎(chǔ)模型沒有考慮營(yíng)銷因素,因此,以Robinson為代表的學(xué)者首次將價(jià)格納入BASS模型,研究含有價(jià)格函數(shù)的BASS模型。 現(xiàn)有含有價(jià)格變量的BASS改進(jìn)模型研究中,主要將不同形式的價(jià)格函數(shù)引入基礎(chǔ)BASS模型。但是,將價(jià)格函數(shù)加入基礎(chǔ)BASS模型后,其微分方程的變量個(gè)數(shù)增加,形式更加復(fù)雜,很難給出解析解。因此,以往研究只局限于給出含有價(jià)格變量的改進(jìn)模型,缺少實(shí)證分析。 由此可見,研究能夠便于進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究的含有價(jià)格變量的BASS模型是一個(gè)有待解決的重要問題。為此,論文的研究目的是以基礎(chǔ)BASS模型及其擴(kuò)展模型為理論基礎(chǔ),通過對(duì)含有價(jià)格函數(shù)的BASS模型的改進(jìn),提出適合于實(shí)證研究的含有營(yíng)銷變量的BASS模型,并將模型應(yīng)用于營(yíng)銷策略的制定中,以指導(dǎo)企業(yè)規(guī)劃最優(yōu)價(jià)格策略、最優(yōu)廣告策略等。論文的主要內(nèi)容包括： 價(jià)格是營(yíng)銷變量中的重要因素,對(duì)產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散過程具有很大影響,這是因?yàn)閮r(jià)格不僅可以直接影響企業(yè)的收益,同時(shí)也是影響消費(fèi)者購買意愿和行為的重要因素。因此,在利用BASS模型研究產(chǎn)品的擴(kuò)散規(guī)律時(shí),需考慮價(jià)格等營(yíng)銷變量的影響。論文以現(xiàn)有含有營(yíng)銷變量函數(shù)的BASS模型為理論基礎(chǔ),將價(jià)格等營(yíng)銷變量的函數(shù)直接加到BASS模型解析解上,得到了便于實(shí)證研究的含有價(jià)格函數(shù)的BASS模型。并以價(jià)格這一營(yíng)銷變量為例,證明了將價(jià)格函數(shù)直接加到基礎(chǔ)BASS模型上和加在BASS模型解析解是等價(jià)的。并利用中國移動(dòng)用戶數(shù)及其資費(fèi)價(jià)格的歷史數(shù)據(jù),改進(jìn)模型進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。結(jié)果表明,論文提出的改進(jìn)BASS擴(kuò)散模型可更好地描述產(chǎn)品的擴(kuò)散過程,提高擴(kuò)散模型的擬合精度。 研究產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散規(guī)律的目的是為了更好地指導(dǎo)企業(yè)制定有利的產(chǎn)品營(yíng)銷、擴(kuò)散策略,含有營(yíng)銷變量的BASS模型研究是為了更好地在產(chǎn)品擴(kuò)散的生命周期中,為企業(yè)提供決策建議和支持。論文以含有價(jià)格函數(shù)的BASS模型為基礎(chǔ),建立利潤(rùn)函數(shù)最大化的目標(biāo)函數(shù),通過數(shù)學(xué)模型的論證,研究產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格函數(shù)的最優(yōu)解和參數(shù)靈敏度,并給出最優(yōu)解和參數(shù)變化的管理學(xué)意義,從而為企業(yè)制定產(chǎn)品價(jià)格策略提供決策依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Since 1960s, with the deepening of research on innovation diffusion theory, the prediction on the size of the market diffusion model, prediction of product diffusion process in the attracted wide attention of scholars at home and abroad, put forward to the new innovation diffusion model of every hue. In which the most famous is the BASS model which was proposed by Frank.M. BASS in 1969 since then, this model has become one of the main research direction of diffusion model, and is widely used in automobile, communication, Internet and e-commerce and other products market forecasts.
BASS first proposed the diffusion model, in order to solve the differential equations, put forward a series of assumptions, such as product diffusion process, the same maximum market potential, product diffusion is not affected by the price of marketing variables, but later with the product diffusion process and the diffusion model of the continuous deepening of research, domestic scholars to relax the assumption of the BASS model, modified each hypothesis conditions are an improved direction BASS model. For example, people gradually realize that the marketing factors have important influence on product diffusion process, and the BASS based model does not consider the marketing factors, therefore, scholars represented by Robinson will be the first price in the BASS model. Study on BASS model containing price function.
The existing BASS contains the price variable improved model in this study, the main different forms of price function into the BASS model. However, the price of adding a function of BASS model, the differential equation of the number of variables increases, form more complex, difficult to obtain the analytical solution. Therefore, previous research is limited to the improved model are contained the price variable, lack of empirical analysis.
Thus, the research can facilitate the BASS model with price variable for empirical research is an important problem to be solved. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is based on the BASS model and its extended model as the theoretical basis, through improved BASS model with price function, put forward BASS model with marketing variables for empirical research, and the model is applied in the formulation of the marketing strategy, to guide the enterprise planning optimal price strategy, optimal advertising strategy. The main contents of this paper include:
The price is an important factor of marketing variables, has great influence on the product diffusion process, this is because the price can not only directly affect the profits of enterprises, but also an important factor affecting consumer purchase intention and behavior. Therefore, in the study of BASS model of product diffusion law, need to consider the effect of price and other marketing variables. The BASS model contains variable functions to the existing marketing theory, the analytic function is applied directly to the BASS price model of marketing variables on the solutions obtained, containing function of price BASS model for empirical research. And the price of the marketing variables, for example, that will be directly added to the price function based on BASS model in addition to BASS and analytical solution of the model is proved. And the use of historical data and the number of users of China Mobile price, the improved model for empirical analysis. The results show that the proposed The improved BASS diffusion model can better describe the diffusion process of the product and improve the fitting precision of the diffusion model.
Research on product diffusion in order to guide enterprises to establish favorable product marketing, diffusion strategy, BASS model with marketing variables is in order to better product diffusion in the life cycle, provide advice and support for the enterprise. Based on the BASS model with the price function based on the objective function to establish a profit function maximization, through mathematical model demonstration, the optimal price function of product solutions and parameter sensitivity, meaning change and give the optimal solution and parameter management, so as to provide decision-making basis for enterprise to develop product price strategy.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京郵電大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F274

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