【摘要】：在城市軌道交通項目管理中,項目前期管理占據著重要位置。由于城市軌道交通項目普遍具有投資規(guī)模大、建設周期長、技術要求要等特點,因此在項目正式施工前,其面臨著較多不確定性因素,如果在項目前期的風險評估中,未對這些隱含的風險因素進行充分的識別和分析,那么在項目后續(xù)階段中,這些風險因素很可能就會發(fā)生,進而影響軌道交通項目預期目標的實現,甚至導致項目的失敗。在城市軌道交通項目的前期風險管理中,充分考慮項目的實際情況,科學識別、分析和評價項目實施與后續(xù)運營過程中存在的風險因素,并制定相關的風險防范措施,盡可能地降低風險發(fā)生的概率、減少風險發(fā)生帶來的損失,對順利實現項目建設和預期運營具有重要意義。本文希望通過研究軌道交通項目前期的風險管理,制定有效的風險應對措施,來保障城市軌道交通項目社會、經濟和環(huán)境效益目標的實現。論文以項目前期風險管理為研究主題,以重慶軌道交通五號線項目為具體研究案例,在總結國內外專家研究成果和梳理相關理論的基礎上,結合重慶軌道交通五號線項目的實際情況,識別了該項目主要存在政策、經濟、技術、組織管理、施工管理以及不可抗力等風險,然后主要運用層次分析法對這些風險進行了評價,得出該項目排在前三位的風險分別是經濟風險、技術風險、組織管理風險。在此基礎上,論文有針對性地提出了相應的風險應對措施,以期為保證重慶軌道交通五號線項目的順利實施提供科學指導。
[Abstract]:In the urban rail transit project management, the pre-project management occupies an important position. Because of the characteristics of large scale of investment, long construction period and technical requirements, urban rail transit projects are faced with many uncertain factors before the formal construction of the project, if in the early stage of the project risk assessment, If these hidden risk factors are not fully identified and analyzed, these risk factors will probably occur in the subsequent stage of the project, which will affect the realization of the expected objectives of the rail transit project and even lead to the failure of the project. In the early stage risk management of the urban rail transit project, the actual situation of the project is fully considered, the risk factors existing in the implementation and subsequent operation of the project are scientifically identified, analyzed and evaluated, and the relevant risk prevention measures are formulated. It is of great significance to reduce the probability of risk occurrence and reduce the loss caused by risk occurrence for the smooth implementation of project construction and expected operation. This paper hopes that by studying the risk management in the early stage of the rail transit project, we can formulate effective risk response measures to ensure the realization of the social, economic and environmental benefits of the urban rail transit project. The thesis takes the risk management in the early stage of the project as the research theme, and the Chongqing Rail Transit Line 5 as the specific case study, on the basis of summarizing the domestic and foreign experts' research results and combing the relevant theories. In light of the actual situation of the Chongqing Rail Transit Line 5 project, the main risks of the project are identified, such as policy, economy, technology, organization and management, construction management and force majeure. Then the paper evaluates these risks by AHP, and concludes that the top three risks of the project are economic risk, technical risk and organizational management risk. On this basis, the paper puts forward corresponding risk countermeasures in order to provide scientific guidance for ensuring the smooth implementation of Chongqing Rail Transit Line 5 project.
【學位授予單位】：西南交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：U215.1

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本文編號：2180624