本文選題：一帶一路 + 高鐵　； 參考：《西南交通大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：近些年來(lái),在"中國(guó)企業(yè)走出去"戰(zhàn)略的推動(dòng)下,我國(guó)企業(yè)在國(guó)際工程中占有了相當(dāng)大的份額。我國(guó)在境外工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理方面的研究卻遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)滯后于我國(guó)企業(yè)在海外的項(xiàng)目增長(zhǎng)規(guī)模。在中國(guó)高鐵"走出去"的各個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)中不可避免地面臨各類風(fēng)險(xiǎn),而"一帶一路"特殊的背景使中國(guó)高鐵"走出去"面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也具有特殊性,其背后的意義會(huì)被很多國(guó)家和地區(qū)妄加猜測(cè)。國(guó)際鐵路工程項(xiàng)目涉及眾多的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,其影響程度深、影響范圍大,因此有必要對(duì)其面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的防控機(jī)制與應(yīng)對(duì)策略進(jìn)行研究,在工程項(xiàng)目建設(shè)之前對(duì)項(xiàng)目建設(shè)中可能面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)研究,才有可能防患于未然,才有可能最大程度的減小風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生的概率或?qū)L(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生后造成的損失降到最低。因此研究中國(guó)高鐵"走出去"面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)具有非常重大的意義。本文首先介紹"一帶一路"(?)中國(guó)高鐵"走出去"相關(guān)背景內(nèi)容,闡述我國(guó)海外工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問題突出,引出本文的研究目的和研究?jī)r(jià)值。探討國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究情況,并對(duì)各個(gè)學(xué)者的研究進(jìn)行述評(píng),提出采用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)的方法來(lái)進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的建模,給出本研究所采用的技術(shù)路線圖。介紹相關(guān)研究的理論基礎(chǔ)。簡(jiǎn)要概括本文用到的具體鐵路工程項(xiàng)目案例——莫喀高鐵建設(shè)項(xiàng)目。本文的主要工作包括:1.對(duì)莫喀高鐵項(xiàng)目建設(shè)階段承包商風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別方法進(jìn)行闡述,采用文獻(xiàn)研究法和專家訪談法對(duì)莫喀高鐵項(xiàng)目建設(shè)階段承包商風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行識(shí)別、分類與排序,留下主要的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素作為模型的邊界,忽略次要的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)的方法建立項(xiàng)目建設(shè)期間面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的動(dòng)態(tài)識(shí)別模型,就可以識(shí)別出導(dǎo)致進(jìn)度風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、成本風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、質(zhì)量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的主要因素。2.對(duì)莫喀高鐵項(xiàng)目建設(shè)階段承包商風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行定性分析和定量分析,闡述項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析的方法、確定分析方法、介紹莫喀高鐵項(xiàng)目建設(shè)階段風(fēng)險(xiǎn)定量分析過程、論述定量分析具體步驟,最后得出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析后的結(jié)論。3.介紹項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)的概念及內(nèi)容,提出莫喀高鐵項(xiàng)目建設(shè)階段承包商風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)策略及建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, driven by the strategy of "going out of China", Chinese enterprises occupy a considerable share in international engineering. The research on risk management of overseas engineering projects in China lags far behind the growth scale of overseas projects. All kinds of risks are inevitably faced in every link of China's high-speed rail "going out", and the special background of "Belt and Road" makes the risks faced by China's high-speed railway "going out" also have its particularity. The meaning behind it will be guessed by many countries and regions. The international railway engineering project involves many risk factors, and its influence degree is deep and the scope of influence is large. Therefore, it is necessary to study the prevention and control mechanism and countermeasures of the risk faced by the international railway project. Before the construction of the project, it is possible to carry out systematic research on the risks that may be faced in the construction of the project, and it is possible to reduce the probability of the occurrence of the risk or the loss caused by the risk to the minimum. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the risks faced by China's high-speed railway. This paper first introduces "Belt and Road". The related background content of China's high-speed railway "going abroad" expounds that the risk of overseas engineering projects in China is prominent, and leads to the purpose and value of the research in this paper. This paper discusses the relevant research situation at home and abroad, reviews the research of various scholars, puts forward the method of system dynamics to model the risk, and gives the technical roadmap used in this study. This paper introduces the theoretical basis of related research. This paper briefly summarizes the specific railway projects used in this paper-Mozambique-high-speed projects. The main work of this paper includes: 1. This paper expounds the method of contractor risk identification in the construction phase of the high speed railway project in Mozambique, and adopts the method of literature research and expert interview to identify, classify and sort the contractor risk in the construction phase of the project. Leaving the main risk factors as the boundary of the model, ignoring the secondary risk factors, using the method of system dynamics to establish the dynamic identification model of the risk during the construction of the project, we can identify the risk that leads to schedule risk and cost risk. Quality risk, the main factor of safety risk. The qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis of contractor risk in the construction phase of Mozambique High Speed Railway Project are carried out, the method of project risk analysis is expounded, the analysis method is determined, and the process of risk quantitative analysis in the construction phase of Mozambique High Speed Railway project is introduced. The concrete steps of quantitative analysis are discussed. Finally, the conclusion of risk analysis is drawn. 3. This paper introduces the concept and content of the project risk management, and puts forward the contractor's risk response strategy and suggestions in the construction phase of the Mozamo-high-speed railway project.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：U215.1

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