本文選題：PEST分析　切入點：灰色預測　出處：《山東理工大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：木材是我國當前急需進口的一種重要自然資源。2014年,我國木材的進口量達到了7685萬立方米,同比增長16.9%。木材資源的引進不僅可以有效緩減我國林木資源嚴重短缺的問題,同時對于我國環(huán)境保護以及經濟發(fā)展都具有重要意義。日照嵐山港是山東最主要的木材進境口岸,近年其進口量占到山東木材進口量的約近一半。但是隨著木材進口量的不斷擴大,日照嵐山港進口木材儲運遇到了諸多難以克服的困難。本論文以日照嵐山港為研究對象,對其木材儲運運營戰(zhàn)略進行了系統(tǒng)研究,取得了以下研究成果:首先,運用PEST、SWOT分析法,對日照嵐山港進口木材儲運的自然及社會環(huán)境等外在因素和港口進口木材業(yè)務的內在方面進行了深入分析,同時用灰色分析法對日照嵐山港未來的進口量進行了初步預測,以此揭示日照嵐山港必然采取有效措施來提升木材進口的物流儲運能力才能滿足進口量不斷增長的實際需要。其次,通過分析,本文認為在日照嵐山港興建進境木材檢疫除害處理區(qū)是較為合理的方案,也是必然的選擇。檢疫除害處理區(qū)的建設不但可以有效緩解港口儲運場地不足的問題,同時還能夠有效擴大木材資源的進口國家范圍,從而能進一步擴大木材資源的進口數(shù)量,并有效提升日照嵐山港進口木材的核心競爭能力。再次,鑒于建設進境木材檢疫除害處理區(qū)的實際需要,本研究中運用關系模型對處理區(qū)以及其他相配套設施的位置進行了研究,同時在全面考察日照嵐山港自然地理等條件的基礎上確定了較為科學合理的設施位置安排。最后,在對日照嵐山港進口木材物流情況考察、咨詢相關專業(yè)人士以及參閱大量相關資料的基礎上確定用于物流績效評估的17個重要指標,對這些指標運用AHP層次分析模型進行了權重賦值,通過調查問卷的方式對相關專業(yè)人士進行調查,取得了專家對于各個港口進口木材績效的評定。并運用模糊綜合評價,對專家的評定的結果進行了定量分析,得到了日照嵐山港、連云港及青島港進口木材的物流績效的綜合評定值分別為82.77,82.44和85.03。本文首次創(chuàng)新性地運用層次分析與模糊綜合評價相結合的方法對進口木材的物流績效進行研究。當然,由于調查專家樣本的不同,因而存在著內在的不一致性,因而需要通過更大容量樣本的調查進行分析修正。但本文的研究,對于改進日照嵐山港進口木材儲運運營具有重要的參考價值。
[Abstract]:Timber is an important natural resource that our country urgently needs to import. In 2014, China's timber import reached 76.85 million cubic meters, an increase of 16.9 percent over the same period last year.The introduction of wood resources can not only effectively alleviate the serious shortage of forest resources in China, but also play an important role in environmental protection and economic development in China.Rizhao Lanshan Port is the most important port of entry of timber in Shandong Province. In recent years, the import amount of Rizhao Lanshan Port accounts for nearly half of Shandong's timber imports.However, with the continuous expansion of timber imports, the storage and transportation of imported timber in Rizhao Lanshan Port has encountered many insurmountable difficulties.This paper takes Rizhao Lanshan Port as the research object, carries on the systematic research to its timber storage and transportation operation strategy, has obtained the following research results: first, uses the PEST-SWOT analysis method,The external factors such as natural and social environment of importing timber storage and transportation in Rizhao Lanshan Port and the internal aspects of the port's timber import business are deeply analyzed. At the same time, the future import volume of Rizhao Lanshan Port is preliminarily forecasted by using grey analysis method.Thus it is revealed that Rizhao Lanshan Port must take effective measures to improve the logistics storage and transportation capacity of timber imports in order to meet the actual needs of increasing import volume.Secondly, through the analysis, it is considered that it is a reasonable scheme and an inevitable choice to construct a quarantine and pest treatment area for imported timber in Rizhao Lanshan Port.The construction of quarantine and pest control treatment areas can not only effectively alleviate the shortage of port storage and transportation sites, but also effectively expand the scope of the importing countries of timber resources, thereby further expanding the import quantity of timber resources.And effectively enhance the Rizhao Lanshan port import wood core competitiveness.Thirdly, in view of the actual need to construct the imported wood quarantine and pest treatment area, the relationship model is used to study the location of the treatment area and other matching facilities.At the same time, on the basis of comprehensive investigation of the natural geography of Rizhao Lanshan Port and other conditions, a more scientific and reasonable location arrangement of facilities has been determined.Finally, on the basis of investigating the import timber logistics situation of Rizhao Lanshan Port, consulting relevant professionals and consulting a lot of relevant information, we have determined 17 important indicators for logistics performance evaluation.The weights of these indexes are assigned by using the AHP Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model, and the relevant professionals are investigated by questionnaire, and the experts' evaluation on the performance of imported timber in each port is obtained.By using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, the results of expert evaluation were quantitatively analyzed, and the comprehensive evaluation values of the logistics performance of imported timber in Rizhao Lanshan Port, Lianyungang Port and Qingdao Port were 82.77-82.44 and 85.03 respectively.For the first time, this paper studies the logistics performance of imported timber by using the method of AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.Of course, there is inherent inconsistency because of the difference of experts' sample, so it is necessary to analyze and correct it through the investigation of larger sample size.However, the study of this paper has important reference value for improving the operation of imported timber storage and transportation in Rizhao Lanshan Port.
【學位授予單位】：山東理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F272.3;F426.88;F752.61

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相關期刊論文 前1條

1 韋漢超;謝如鶴;;廣東省港口貨物吞吐量預測及分析[J];物流工程與管理;2012年03期

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本文編號：1718885