本文選題：訂單交付　切入點：銷售預(yù)測模型　出處：《東華大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著中國物流行業(yè)的快速發(fā)展,作為一種物流設(shè)備的叉車也呈現(xiàn)出良好的發(fā)展勢頭。越來越多的進口叉車品牌進入中國,與國內(nèi)叉車生產(chǎn)行業(yè)展開競爭。JH公司以某企業(yè)全球戰(zhàn)略合作供應(yīng)商的身份進入中國叉車行業(yè),以良好的產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量和先進的營銷模式迅速打開市場,排名躍居到進口叉車中國區(qū)前兩名。不過,市場發(fā)展瞬息萬變,客戶要求不斷提高,企業(yè)面對這些變化也需要應(yīng)時而變,及時進行相應(yīng)的戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整,其中,準確、及時的訂單交付能力是叉車行業(yè)競爭中取得優(yōu)勢的重要因素之一,歷來備受該行業(yè)企業(yè)管理層的重視。本文以JH公司的訂單交付為研究對象,以縮短交貨周期為目的,提升客戶的滿意度和公司的競爭力。JH公司是一家銷售型企業(yè),無采購和產(chǎn)品設(shè)計權(quán),因此對訂單交付的研究只能從銷售訂單預(yù)測的精準性和訂單管理流程優(yōu)化兩方面進行,并配套相應(yīng)的管理措施。銷售訂單預(yù)測精準性體現(xiàn)在可根據(jù)精確預(yù)測的數(shù)據(jù),先行向工廠下單生產(chǎn),客戶簽訂合同后免去等待生產(chǎn)時間直接發(fā)貨。訂單管理流程優(yōu)化是企業(yè)員工實際操作過程的優(yōu)化,好的模式能夠縮短每個環(huán)節(jié)的操作時間,提高工作效率。本文結(jié)合JH公司在訂單管理方面的現(xiàn)狀,重點分析目前JH公司的銷售訂單預(yù)測方法和訂單管理具體流程,指出其在銷售訂單預(yù)測和訂單管理流程方面存在的問題。在查閱國內(nèi)外相關(guān)領(lǐng)域的理論方法的基礎(chǔ)上,分別利用移動平均法和指數(shù)平滑法進行JH公司叉車銷售訂單預(yù)測,并對其進行檢驗,最后證明基于指數(shù)平滑法建立的模型能夠有效地對JH公司的叉車進行預(yù)測,大大提高了預(yù)測的精度,既能及時滿足客戶需求又能防止庫存積壓,提高客戶的滿意度。然后,結(jié)合現(xiàn)有的訂單管理流程,利用魚骨圖法找出流程中存在的不足,深入分析并挖掘出根本原因;運用ECRS法減少沒有價值環(huán)節(jié)、合并重復(fù)環(huán)節(jié)、對保留部分流程進行了重排和簡化,讓流程運轉(zhuǎn)更加順暢,提高業(yè)務(wù)處理效率和信息傳遞速度;結(jié)合具體某個訂單,檢驗了流程優(yōu)化的有效性。為保證上述改進的順利實施,同時為JH公司在管理上提出有效的方案建議。隨著經(jīng)濟全球化發(fā)展的趨勢和行業(yè)競爭的不斷加劇,叉車企業(yè)如何提高訂單交付方面的能力,及時、快速地滿足客戶需求,是叉車企業(yè)在競爭中取得優(yōu)勢的關(guān)鍵。本文在JH公司訂單精確預(yù)測和訂單流程優(yōu)化等方面的研究可為叉車行業(yè)提供一些啟示。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's logistics industry, forklift trucks, as a kind of logistics equipment, are also showing good development momentum. More and more imported forklift brands enter China. To compete with the domestic forklift manufacturing industry. JH entered the forklift industry in China as a supplier of global strategic cooperation, opening the market quickly with good product quality and advanced marketing model. However, the market is developing rapidly and the customer requirements are constantly improving. In the face of these changes, enterprises also need to make timely strategic adjustments, among which, they are accurate. The ability of timely order delivery is one of the important factors to gain advantages in the competition of forklift truck industry, and has always been attached great importance by the management of the forklift industry. In this paper, the order delivery of JH Company is taken as the research object, and the purpose of this paper is to shorten the delivery period. Improving customer satisfaction and Competitiveness. JH is a sales company with no right to purchase and product design. Therefore, the research on order delivery can only be carried out from two aspects: the accuracy of sales order prediction and the optimization of order management process. And the corresponding management measures. The accuracy of sales order prediction can be reflected in according to the accurate forecast data, first of all to the factory order production, The order management process optimization is the optimization of the actual operation process of the enterprise staff, the good model can shorten the operation time of each link. Based on the current situation of JH company in order management, this paper mainly analyzes the current JH company's sales order forecasting method and order management process. This paper points out the problems existing in the forecasting of sales order and the flow of order management. On the basis of consulting the theories and methods of related fields at home and abroad, the paper makes use of moving average method and exponential smoothing method to forecast the forklift truck sales order of JH Company, respectively. Finally, it is proved that the model based on exponential smoothing method can effectively predict the forklift truck of JH Company, which greatly improves the accuracy of the prediction, and can not only meet the customer's demand in time but also prevent the inventory backlog. Improve customer satisfaction. Then, combined with the existing order management process, using the fish bone chart method to find out the shortcomings of the process, in-depth analysis and excavation of the root cause; use of ECRS method to reduce the value of links, merge duplicate links, It rearranges and simplifies the retained part of the process, makes the process run more smoothly, improves the efficiency of business processing and the speed of information transmission, and tests the effectiveness of the process optimization by combining a specific order. In order to ensure the smooth implementation of the above improvements, With the trend of economic globalization and the increasing competition in the industry, how to improve the ability of order delivery in forklift truck enterprises, in order to meet the needs of customers in a timely and fast manner, It is the key for forklift enterprises to gain advantages in the competition. The research of JH company in the aspects of order precision prediction and order process optimization can provide some enlightenment for forklift industry.
【學位授予單位】：東華大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F416.4;F274

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 余江;周來新;胡琳;楊靚;朱丹;張玲;王婷;;基于ECRS法的大型醫(yī)院門診服務(wù)流程優(yōu)化[J];中國醫(yī)院;2016年11期

2 陳宇;劉海英;;公益金預(yù)測的三種模型及其經(jīng)驗測算[J];統(tǒng)計與決策;2016年11期

3 汪玉秀;顧巧祥;邢超;馬志斌;;馬爾可夫過程的4S店汽車銷售量預(yù)測[J];中國計量學院學報;2015年04期

4 黃河;;汽車零部件配送中心業(yè)務(wù)流程與操作優(yōu)化分析[J];物流技術(shù);2015年11期

5 孫曉靜;高慧;陳云;;基于聚類分析和決策樹算法的服裝銷售預(yù)測模型[J];中國管理信息化;2015年09期

6 王振鋒;;超市配送中心業(yè)務(wù)流程優(yōu)化思路及方法[J];物流技術(shù)與應(yīng)用;2014年02期

7 荊園園;李丹;;基于BP網(wǎng)絡(luò)的汽車配件需求預(yù)測模型[J];技術(shù)與市場;2013年12期

8 李夏;張昕;;基于ECRS分析法的班臺臺面加工工藝流程分析與改進[J];價值工程;2013年13期

9 褚躍龍;王爽;;淺析企業(yè)應(yīng)如何進行業(yè)務(wù)流程優(yōu)化[J];遼寧工業(yè)大學學報(社會科學版);2012年02期

10 宋瑞萍;;淺析數(shù)學模型的構(gòu)建方法及應(yīng)用[J];青海師范大學學報(自然科學版);2011年03期

相關(guān)碩士學位論文 前5條

1 袁磊磊;基于時間序列分析的商業(yè)企業(yè)銷售預(yù)測模型研究[D];重慶理工大學;2013年

2 何豐;四川移動集團客戶業(yè)務(wù)端到端流程優(yōu)化[D];電子科技大學;2010年

3 龍博學;汽車整車銷售預(yù)測模型的研究[D];北方工業(yè)大學;2010年

4 王金旺;供應(yīng)鏈環(huán)境下市場需求預(yù)測體系研究[D];北京交通大學;2008年

5 于濤;企業(yè)業(yè)務(wù)流程再造效果的評價方法研究[D];武漢理工大學;2008年

，

本文編號：1653703